Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers
June 17, 6:05 PM Pacific

The Celtics will be without center Kendrick Perkins, who tore two knee ligaments in game six.  This could provide a great opportunity for Pau Gasol to have a big game.  Forget about the Celtics 22 points loss in Game 6–there have been forty 20+ point blowouts in NBA finals history and the team at the wrong end of these routs are 22-18 SU in the following game.  The Celtics are 5-0 SU after losing by 20+ points in the NBA Finals, with four of those five wins coming against the Lakers.  Of course the last time this happened to a Boston team was 1985, but from a historical perspective the Game 6 loss doesn’t mean much.

Of more significance is track record of Game 7 results since the NBA went to the 2-3-2 series format.  Since then, the home team is a perfect 5-0 SU in Game 7.  In this particular game, that fact means little since the Lakers are a prohibitive -7 point home favorite.  In theory, Boston plus the points would make sense here but my gut instinct tells me that the Lakers will win outright.

So we’ll head back to the total–the first two games of this series went Over the total but the four games since have gone Under.  11 of the last 18 head to head meetings overall and 5 of the last 9 meetings in Los Angeles have gone Under.  Game 6 went Under by 34 points.  The two most likely scenarios tonight are a competitive game that goes right down to the wire, or another Lakers blowout a la Game 6.  In either case, the Under looks like the right position.  If the Celtics want to make a game of it they have play better team defense, which will produce a low scoring game.  And if the Lakers play like they did in Game 6 and shut down the Celtics, it’ll be a low scoring game.  There’s been some downward adjustment, but not as much as you’d expect with Game 6 going Under by 34 points.

Bet LA Lakers/Boston Under 187

Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers
June 15, 6:05 PM Pacific

Home court advantage is a significant consideration in NBA basketball, but not quite as significant as the linesmakers are suggesting here.  The Lakers were a +2 point underdog for Game 5 in Boston and now they’re -6′ home favorite in Game 6?  That’s an 8′ points swing and clearly one that overcompensates for the Lakers’ home court as well as the fact that they ‘need’ to win this game.  So we’re getting a good value on Boston and going against a Lakers team that has only covered 3 of their last 9 games dating back to the Phoenix series.  They’ve also failed to cover 5 of their last 6 when trailing in a playoff series.  Boston may have been sleepwalking through much of the regular season but they’re a team that takes care of business in the playoffs and particularly the NBA Finals where they’ve covered 9 of their last 11 games.

This series has become one of lopsided dominance for Boston–at least from a pointspread perspective.  Celtics have covered 12 of the last 16 games against LA including 6 of the last 8 and 12 of the last 17 in Los Angeles.  Even if Kobe Bryant scores a lot of points–which he did in Game 5–the Celtics are simply a better team on both ends of the floor in the half court set.  They’ll grind out the outright victory here in another low scoring contest that goes Under the total.

Bet Boston +6′ over Los Angeles Lakers
Bet Boston/LA Lakers Under 189

Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics
June 13, 5:05 PM Pacific

We had sort of expected that LA would have taken over the series by now, but the Celtics have hung in there–with help from the officiating on occasion–to make it a best of 3 series.  By now, you’ve probably figured out a few things about this matchup and we’ll play it accordingly.  The NBA clearly wants to see this go as long as possible and with or without the referee influence the teams have alternated wins and losses.  We look for that to continue today and expect the Lakers to head home with a 3-2 lead.  They’re getting points here making them an even more attractive position.

We also look for another low scoring game and for another Under.  The first two games of the series went Over, but not by much.  The shooting percentages continue to go down as the competition becomes more intense and the teams start to figure out defensive adjustments.  We look for another slow tempo, half court affair with tenacious defense on both ends of the court.  Between the playoffs and regular season, 4 of the 6 head to head meetings this year have gone Under as have 5 of the last 8 in Boston.

Bet Los Angeles Lakers +3 over Boston
Bet Los Angeles Lakers/Boston Under 187

Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics
June 10, 6:05 PM Pacific

The injury report lists several banged up players for both teams, though all are listed as ‘probable’.  LA’s Andrew Bynum has a hurt knee, but the Celtics have three players on the injury report–Tony Allen, Rasheed Wallace and Ray Allen should all play but probably not at 100%.   We think there’s a good chance the Lakers get another victory here but once again a better position appears to be on the total.  In our handicap of  Game 3, we talked about the low scoring nature of the regular season series and as we get deeper into the finals we expect the pace and tempo to slow down.  Teams are better able to make defensive adjustments and, of course, the injury situation won’t help things.  The Celtics can’t run with the Lakers and that’s fine with LA since they prefer the halfcourt game as well.

Even the Game 2 ‘Over’ was something of an anomaly–the Celtics and Lakers shot 42.9 and 40.8% respectively, but the refs called a ridiculous number of ‘ticky tack’ fouls.  After significant criticism of this officiating we expect them to let the teams play, which should result in a more physical game and lower shooting percentages.  All in all, it looks like another good spot for the Under.

Bet Los Angeles Lakers/Boston Celtics Under 190′

Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers
June 6, 5:05 PM Pacific

We’re of the opinion that Boston is somewhat overvalued in this spot, due in large part to the history of the Celtics/Lakers rivalry.  The simple fact is that this season the Western Conference was much stronger than the East.  The Celtics really had a perfect setup to make it to the finals, facing an inconsistent Miami team, a Cleveland team that–for whatever reason–appeared to ‘quit’ midway through the series, and an Orlando side that struggled in the halfcourt set.  The two regular season games between Boston and LA were very close, with Boston winning by 1 at LA and the Lakers winning by a single point in Boston.  Of course everyone knows that regular season results are essentially meaningless.

We look for a similar style of play as in Game 1, with the Lakers’ defense limiting the Celtics’ offense en route to another relatively easy victory.  The Celtics could very well make this a competitive series, but that won’t happen until play shifts to Boston.  In addition, we look for this game to go Under the total.  The first game landed right around the total, and the result depended on what price you got.  Game 2 will likely play out much more like the two regular season contests where the teams combined for 173 and 179 points.

Finally, we look for Kobe Bryant to score at least 30 points and as a result we’ll play the Over in the scoring prop bet offered by many books.  The number is set at 29.5, which is Kobe’s per game average during the postseason.  If you look at his output game by game, however, you’ll notice that since the Oklahoma City series (where the Thunder did a very good job defending him) he’s scored 30 or more points in 10 of the 11 playoff games.

Bet LA Lakers -5′ over Boston Celtics
Bet LA Lakers/Boston Celtics Under 190
Bet Kobe Bryant Over 29.5 points +105

Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic
May 26, 5:30 PM Pacific

We think that the Celtics will finally take care of business here, and they’ve got history on their side.  There have been 93 teams in NBA history to fall behind 0-3 in a 7 game series, and only 9 of those teams have ever made it to Game 6.  While there’s some interest in taking the Celtics here, we’re of the opinion that an even stronger position is on the game to go Under the total.  This handicap isn’t exactly rocket science–the first three games went Under the total and even with an overtime period Game 4 only managed to push against the O/U number.

Both of these teams win with defense.  If Orlando is going to get back in the series, they’ve got to keep the Celtics from getting easy points in the paint.  If Boston is going to finish off Orlando, they’ve got to put the screws to them defensively.  The Magic have gone Over just twice in their previous 11 games, while Boston has exceeded the total in just 3 of their last 11 games.  Head to head, the Magic and Celtics have gone Under in 15 of the last 21 meetings and 8 of the last 11 in Orlando.  Look for another half court battle tonight and another low scoring game.

Bet Orlando/Boston Under 186′

Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics
May 22, 5:30 PM Pacific

We went against Boston quite a bit during the regular season, usually justifying it with the observation that the Celtics were ‘looking ahead to the playoffs’.  While that mindset didn’t do much for the Celtics’ online betting pointspread performance during the regular season, its paying big dividends now.  Doc Rivers really doesn’t get the credit he deserves with the personnel management job he did during the regular season–he kept his starters’ minutes down and kept an eye on the playoffs even at the expense of losing regular season games.  Now he’s got a veteran team that’s not worn out and playing their best basketball of the year with an eye on the championship.

Orlando was playing better basketball than anyone in the playoffs, and that might have been their undoing here–it was all coming too easy for them against overmatched Charlotte and disinterested Atlanta.  Now they’re facing a team that can outplay them on both ends in the half court game.  The Celtics may not have anyone who can physically match up with Dwight Howard in the middle, but they’ve made up for that by working hard on defense and looking to deny him the ball at the source–by clogging the passing lanes.   The Magic now face a monumental challenge from a psychological/emotional standpoint as well–they’ve got to win on the road to survive, but that just gets them back to the home court where they weren’t exactly dominant.    No disrespect to the Magic players or coaches, but that’s a situation where you need exceptional mental toughness–of the Michael Jordan/Kobe Bryant variety–and Orlando doesn’t have it.   In NBA 7 game series, a home team up 2-0 in game 3 (meaning they won the first two on the road) is a 58.8% SU winner overall but is 6-1 (85.7%) winner in the Conference Finals.  Orlando has the misfortunate to have run into a confidant, experienced team with superior tactical skill and mental toughness.  We’re looking for a Celtics sweep to set up a LA vs. Boston final.

Bet Boston Celtics -3′ over Orlando Magic

Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawks
May 10, 5:05 PM Pacific

This game opened with Orlando a -5 point road favorite and has been bet up to -6–with good reason, as the Magic have had no problem at all with the Hawks either at home or on the road.  We’ve had a similar handicap for the other games in the series, but all you need to know about this game was revealed in the Hawks 7 game series against the Bucks.  Atlanta couldn’t do anything with an injury depleted Milwaukee team despite the absence of their best interior defender and low post scorer Andrew Bogut.  More problematically, they showed little if any competitive fire looking every bit like a team ‘going through the motions’.  Now they face a team playing great basketball with arguably the best all around interior player in the game and the results are just what you think they’d be–Orlando has won and covered every game in the series, winning all three by double digits with an average margin of victory of a whopping 29 PPG.

There’s simply no reason to think that Atlanta will put up much resistance here.  It’s a horrible tactical matchup for them, and they haven’t exactly shown an abundance of heart in the playoffs.  Orlando in exceptional form, winning 13 straight and 14 of 15 dating back to the regular season.  They’ve also covered 13 of their L15 games, while Atlanta is a woeful 2-6 ATS in the postseason.  Orlando has dominated head to head play in recent years, 11-4 SU/ATS overall including 5-2 SU/ATS in Atlanta.  Should be another Magic blowout as they advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Bet Orlando -6 over Atlanta

Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawks
May 8, 2:05 PM Pacific

From a historical perspective, there’s a good case to be made for the hometown Hawks in Game 3.  This is, of course, a ‘must win’ game as everyone knows that no NBA team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit to win a series.  NBA teams in this spot–returning home in a 7 game series down 0-2–are historically a 63% SU winner in game 3.  Having said that, we think this is just a lousy matchup for Atlanta.  The Hawks needed 7 games to get rid of injury depleted Milwaukee, who played without their primary low post scoring threat and interior defender in Andrew Bogut.  If they couldn’t exploit the Bucks deficiency on the inside, their ability to deal with a monster like Dwight Howard in the paint is very problematic.  Howard had a huge game in Game 2 with 29 points and 17 rebounds.

The flip side is that much was made of Dwight Howard’s relative lack of productivity during the Magic’s first round sweep of Charlotte.  The Bobcats obviously didn’t have a player who could defend Howard straight up, so they decided to use a strategy similar to the infamous ‘Hack-a-Shaq’ defense.  The Bobcats do have a number of big bodies, and they used this rotation to foul Howard and take him out of his game.  To some extent it worked, as his productivity was down during the series but the net result was a Magic sweep.  Atlanta doesn’t have that luxury, and the result so far is a dominant series from Howard.  We look for more of the same in Atlanta.  The Magic have now won 12 straight dating back to the regular season, covering 11 of those games.  They’ve had little trouble with Atlanta in recent years, with a 10-4 SU/ATS record in head to head play including a 4-2 SU/ATS mark on the road.  We’ll back the Magic as a small road favorite and look for them to sweep the series.

Bet Orlando -2 over Atlanta

Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics
May 7, 4:05 PM Pacific

Much has been made of LeBron James’ injured elbow, but every indication is that he’ll play.  Cleveland was caught napping by the Celtics in Game 2 but that sets up well for a Cavs comeback in Game 3.  Historically, the visiting team has been the SU play in Game 3 nearly 60% of time in the NBA overall (59.1%) and in the conference semifinals (58.3%) in a 1-1 series.  At this price, of course, we’re really picking the SU winner.  Cavs split two games here during the regular season but the Celtics win was a late season game when Cleveland was already looking ahead to the postseason.

Celtics were a poor investment at home this year with a 15-28 ATS record and were 0-2 SU/1-0-1 ATS as a home dog.  They also didn’t perform well off an upset win as an underdog (2-6 SU/ATS) and after a win of 10+ points (9-16 ATS).  Cleveland was a solid 27-16 SU/23-19 ATS on the road and we look for a very focused and intense effort from the Cavs in this spot.  Cavs win SU and at this price that’s all we need them to do to cash our ticket.

Bet Cleveland -1 over Boston