It’s Still Football:

At its essence, handicapping CFL football isn’t much different than handicapping the NFL game.  The qualities that spell success in the NFL also translate to success in the CFL–so teams that run the ball well, have a positive turnover ratio, and play good defense are usually the ones challenging for the Grey Cup title at the end of the year.  It may be more difficult to find success in the CFL without good offensive balance–you’ll seldom find good teams that pass the ball well but struggle on the ground and vice versa.

Laying big pointspreads is never a good idea in any form of football, but is particularly unwise in the CFL.  As we discussed yesterday, teams are required to have a certain number of roster spots filled by Canadian natives.  The result is a greater degree of parity between the teams at the top and bottom of the standings.  There simply isn’t the talent pool of Canadian football players to avoid this.  Everyone has heard the old adage that ‘on any given Sunday’ any NFL team can beat any other.  That’s true to an even greater degree in the CFL.

For the handicapper, this means that you should look for opportunities to play competitive underdogs.  If you choose to lay points with a favorite, pick your spots carefully.

Home Field is Important:

And don’t think that home field advantage isn’t important in the CFL.  It is, and may be more valuable up north than in the NFL.  Just take a look at the 2009 CFL standings for proof of this.  Only one team in the league had a winning record on the road (Grey Cup champions Montreal).  Hamilton was a solid 6-3 at home, just 3-6 on the road.  Calgary had a similar situation with a 6-2-1 mark at home and a 4-5 record away.  Toronto was bad everywhere (1-8 at home, 2-7 on the road) but once their fortunes begin to turn around it’ll likely show up in a better home record first and foremost.

We’ll update on the pointspread tendencies of CFL teams in home/away situations  as the year progresses, but the sum total of this is that one of the strongest CFL betting positions you can find is a competitive home underdog.  With only one team in the league having a winning record on the road, you’ll not only get your share of pointspread covers but quite a few outright winners.

CFL Football–The Basics:

Let’s start with the differences between CFL football and the US version of the game.  For one thing, the ball used in the CFL is bigger than the NFL football.  It’s slightly longer and fatter than the NFL football, and looks more like a rugby ball than anything else.  The CFL field is longer (110 yards) and wider (65 yards compared to the NFL’s 53.5 yards), and the CFL end zones are deeper (20 yards).  The CFL goal posts are on the goal line, while the NFL’s are  at the back of the endzone.

The CFL game is played with 12 players on the field, with the extra player a receiver on offense and a defense back on defense.  The CFL game gives teams 3 downs to move the ball ten yards as opposed to four (meaning you’ll hear that teams went ‘two and out’ as opposed to ‘three and out’).  There are a few other subtle rule differences, but these are the biggest.

The Single:

There’s also one significant scoring difference–a team is awarded a single point for a missed field goal or a punt that lands in the end zone.  This will occasionally produce scores that cause NFL fans to do a double take (its strange the first time you see a CFL game tied at 1-1).  While it may seem that this point–known as ‘the single’ would wreak havoc with handicapping it doesn’t really impact the outcome of betting as often as you’d think.  I actually can’t recall an experience where the outcome of a bet was determined by a ’single’ in over 10 years of handicapping Canadian football.

Canadian Player Quotas:

One of the more significant rules is enforced not on the field, but in the front office–teams are required to have a certain number of Canadian players on the roster.  The CFL tweaks this number from time to time, but currently 19 of the 40 players on a roster must be Canadian born.  The reason for this rule is to prevent the CFL from becoming purely a developmental league for aspiring NFL players and to help it retain its uniquely Canadian identity.

For the handicapper, the result is a greater amount of parity.  College football in Canada isn’t played on the same level as in the US, so the talent pool that CFL teams can draw from to fulfill the Canadian player quota simply isn’t as deep.  And while there’s been a number of US born players that have solid careers up north, for the most part they’re those who aren’t quite at the NFL level in terms of size or skill.

Those are the basic differences between the CFL brand of football and that played in the NFL.  At the end of the day, however, its still football and a CFL bettor approaches handicapping in much the same way.  In the next installment of this series we’ll look at some general handicapping concepts that have proven successful over time.

Outback Bowl:  South Carolina vs. Connecticut
January 2, 11:00 AM Pacific

I’ve been scratching my head over this line move since it opened.  South Carolina opened as a -6 favorite and have been bet down to -3′.  There are at least a couple of possible explanations.  The UConn football program had to deal with the tragic stabbing death of Jasper Howard during midseason, and the betting public may see some sort of motivational factor as the Huskies dedicate this game to his memory.  Also a consideration may be the team’s pointspread performance as UConn went 9-2 ATS this season including a perfect 6-0 mark as an underdog.  The teams that were favored against Connecticut were Notre Dame, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Louisville, Baylor and North Carolina.  Three of those teams weren’t invited to a bowl game, and the three that were went 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS.

On a theoretical level, we’ll gladly take the SEC vs. the Big East in any hypothetical matchup.  South Carolina may have been over reliant on the pass this year, but with the development of Steven Garcia at QB and the depth the Gamecocks have at wide receiver its hard to blame them.   Howard’s loss not only impacted UConn on a personal level but a tactical one as well:  he was the best player on defense and the Huskies struggled in his absence to stop anyone.  For the year, they finished 104th in passing efficiency defense and had only one interception following Howard’s death.  That’s a bad matchup against the South Carolina passing game.   They’ll also be without linebacker Greg Lloyd here, meaning a less aggressive pass rush. Statistically, the Gamecocks’ defense was down from recent years but that was due more to injuries and lack of depth than a deficiency in front line talent.  They’ll be well rested here and won’t face anything on offense that they didn’t see during the SEC conference slate.  Gamecocks win by a TD or more and cover the pointspread.

Bet South Carolina +3′ over Connecticut

San Francisco at St. Louis
January 3, 10:00 AM Pacific

Keith Null is now the starting QB for the St. Louis Rams, and the team has scored a total of 33 points in three games with the rookie under center.  He can’t feel too bad, however, since they weren’t any better with veterans Marc Bulger and Kyle Boller starting at QB.  St. Louis has scored more than 17 points only twice this season, and they’re averaging 11.2 PPG over their last seven contests.  There’s plenty of blame to go around on this pitiful football team, but their problems started long before Null took his first NFL snap.

And divest yourself of any notion that the Rams care enough to fight for a win for their home fans.  St. Louis has lost 12 straight games at the Edward Jones Dome and are on a 9-19 ATS run at home.  Basically, St. Louis is already on the clock for the first pick in the 2009 NFL Draft which provides another interesting subtext to this game–the Rams would put themselves in a better position for the future by losing.  Should St. Louis go 1-15, they’ll automatically get the first pick in the draft.  If they should pull the upset win, however, it’ll likely go to the Detroit Lions based on strength of schedule.  Not that St. Louis has shown much interest in winning of late, they’ve got a pretty compelling reason *not* to win here.

It’s a completely different story for Mike Singletary’s San Francisco 49ers.  They’ve had some ‘growing pains’ this year, but they’ve never lost their fight.  Clearly that was the idea when Singletary was handed the reins of this team despite no prior coaching experience.  As the defensive leader of arguably the greatest NFL team in history, the 1985 Chicago Bears there were few tougher and more fiery competitors than Singletary.  Despite the ups and downs he’s experienced with the team, he’s done an impressive job communicating his commitment to the game to his players.

For NFL football betting experts, a coach that has his team fighting for every victory is a goldmine against the pointspread.  Since he became head coach last year, the Niners are 14-6-3 ATS.  This year they’ve lost against the spread only 4 times in 15 games (8-4-3 ATS).  They destroyed St. Louis at home earlier this season, winning 35-0.  Not that they haven’t dominated the Rams for a while now–San Francisco has covered against the Rams in 8 of the last 10 meetings and 11 of the last 14 in St. Louis.

Laying points on the road is never an easy thing to do in the NFL, but in a matchup between a team that has shown considerable fight under their fiery head coach and a team going nowhere–let alone considering that they’ve got some very compelling reasons to lose this game–this looks to be a good exception.  Look for San Fran to win and cover with ease.

Bet San Francisco -7 over St. Louis

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills
January 3, 10:00 AM Pacific

The Colts clearly don’t have much to play for here with the playoffs looming and the fact that Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai and other top stars will see limited playing time public knowledge.  Still, that fact alone doesn’t seem to justify making Buffalo a whopping -9 home favorite in this spot.  Indy backup Curtis Painter is definitely a step down from Manning, but he is competent within the Colts’ offensive system.  The way this game matches up, however, he may not need to do much but we’ll get to that in a moment.  Ryan Fitzpatrick took most of the snaps in practice over the past couple of days and is expected to get the start here over third stringer Brian Bohm.  The thinking among the wagering public is that the Bills might put in a good effort to lobby for Perry Fewell to be given the permanent coaching gig but that’s a lot to assume.

The primary fallacy in situations like this is that the team that doesn’t “need” the game for anything (in this case the Colts) will just ‘lay down’ and let their opponents run roughshod over them.  That’s seldom the case, and is a lot more effective in a dynamic where the favored team is playing for something (eg:  a winning record, a playoff spot).  The backups who don’t usually get to play will be primed to turn in a strong effort in hopes to get more playing time.  At the very least, they’ll be competing on every play.  Its not like QB Painter will be smoking cigarettes on the sideline during breaks.

This game in particular presents two fundamental problems in asking Buffalo to cover a margin.  First, they’ve struggled all year to put points on the board.  The Bills have put more than 20 points on the scoreboard once in their last 11 games, and have scored less than 14 points in eight of their last 11.  More importantly, perhaps, Buffalo is the NFL’s worst ranked defense against the run.  All the Colts will need to do to keep the chains moving and put some points on the board is run on the Bills, and this strategy is something that everyone on their depth chart can implement.  The Bills may get the outright victory, but Indy will be able to stay well within the hefty pointspread even with their starters watching from the sidelines.

Bet Indianapolis +9 over Buffalo

Tennessee at Seattle
January 3 2010, 1:15 PM Pacific

The Titans won’t make the playoffs, but they’ve got a couple of things to play for here.  First, they can finish .500 with a victory.  In addition, the Titans’ star running back Chris Johnson has an outside shot to break Erik Dickerson’s single season rushing record of 2,105 yards.  He needs 234 yards to get it, but his teammates will do everything to give him the opportunity to make a run at it.  These may seem like minor goals in the big picture of the NFL, but the impressive thing is that this Tennessee team still has a purpose to play for which seemed unlikely when they were staring at a 0-6 record.

Seattle’s defense is sufficiently weak enough that they might get Johnson the record.  The Seahawks stop unit ranks 25th in the NFL in total defense and 14th in rushing defense.  An even bigger problem, quite frankly, is that Seattle has the look of a team that doesn’t really care any more.  Not that they’ve shown a lot of heart at any point in the year.  Four of their five wins came at home, including wins over bottom feeders St. Louis and Detroit.  Their only road win came at St. Louis.  As far as their performance against superior teams here’s all you need to know:  as an underdog this year the Seahawks are 0-8 both straight up and against the spread.  Not that this is anything new, since their 3 year record as an underdog is 3-22 straight up, 6-18-1 against the spread.

If you needed any further evidence that the Seahawks had called it quits for the year, take a look at their last three games where they’re 0-3 SU/ATS and have been outscored by a combined margin of 106-24.  They’ve scored one offensive touchdown during this streak and in their last home game lost outright to Tampa Bay 24-7 as a -6 favorite.  At the time, it was the Bucs only away win of the season.

An important component of successful bettor at an online sportsbook –and particularly the NFL where there is relative parity in terms of talent from team to team–is finding spots where one team is motivated to perform well, or unmotivated or lacking the focus to do so.  In this situation we’ve got a matchup between a team motivated to perform well against a team that has already called it a season.  Chris Johnson may not get the rushing record, but with his team doing everything within their power to help him that’s enough to win and cover a small price in this game.

Bet Tennessee -4 over Seattle

Cincinnati at New York Jets
January 3 2010, 5:20 PM Eastern

The Jets need to win and they’re in, and that fact is clearly reflected in the NFL football betting line for this game.  New York is a -10 favorite, meaning that as is so often the case in this situation you’ll pay a premium to back the Jets.  It’s never a good situation for the value oriented sports betting enthusiast and making it even more problematic here is that so much pressure rests on the Jets’ rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez.

They’ll have to earn the victory against one of the NFL’s top defenses.  Cincinnati isn’t a flashy offensive team despite the fact that wide receiver Chad Ochocinco is their best known player.  They’re a team that wins with a power running game, field position and a stout defense.  The big question surrounding the Bengals is how seriously they’ll take this game and, in something of a corollary to that, how many minutes their starters will play.

One thing that we don’t expect to see is for the Bengals to roll over and let the Jets run roughshod over them.  Even if they do limit the starters’ minutes the style of game that we expect to see doesn’t easily facilitate a blowout.  On the Jets side of things, Rex Ryan isn’t going to put Sanchez into a position he’s not ready for.  Everyone knows that he’s got a 20-12 touchdown to interception ratio, so we expect to see him throwing few downfield passes.  Instead, look for the Jets to rely on the run–not that it’ll be easy against a Bengals defense that entered week 15 ranked #2 in the NFL against the rush.

Oddly enough, a player from a third team has thrown some fuel onto the fire of this game.  Pittsburgh Steelers’ linebacker LaMarr Woodley has publically suggested that both the Bengals and Patriots (who play the Houston Texans) will ‘lay down’ in their final games.  The Steelers still have an outside chance to make the playoffs, but need both Cincinnati and New England to win their games.  By making the final games a referendum on the respective manhood of the Bengals and Pats, Woodley has increased the chances of a competitive effort from both teams.

Don’t forget the late season pickup that the Bengals made of former KC Chiefs running back Larry Johnson.  Johnson wants to rebuild his stock in the NFL, and will likely see extensive playing time once Cedric Benson leaves.  Johnson is a perfect fit for the Bengals’ style of offense, and is much more talented than the garden variety backup.  With the weekend weather forecast calling for snow showers and wind, it further diminishes chances for the Jets to put up the kind of margin they’d need to cover this pointspread.

Win or lose, we sure don’t see Marvin Lewis letting his team simply go belly up in this game.  If the Bengals had more postseason success in recent years it would be a more likely scenario, but as it works out its crucial to keep his team’s intensity up.  The Bengals have covered 9 of their last 10 as underdogs and whether or not they win outright we look for them to make it 10 of 11 here.  They’re definitely the value position against an overvalued Jets side.

Bet Cincinnati Bengals +10 over New York Jets

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
December 27, 5:20 PM Pacific

Perfect set up for a play on the underdog, as Dallas comes in off one of their best performances of the year while Washington tries to bounce back from one of their worst.   Last Saturday night, the Cowboys ended the New Orleans Saints’ undefeated run in one of their best all around performances of the season.  Tony Romo led his team to a 24-3 lead and the defense sealed the game in the fourth quarter to fend off the Saints’ final comeback attempt.  On Monday night, the Redskins were embarrassed by the New York Giants, falling behind 24-0 at halftime en route to a 45-12 defeat.

One of the most valuable handicapping concepts that I’ve learned through the years is particularly applicable to the NFL:  no team is as good as they look at their best, nor as bad as they look at their worst.  Whether you want to call it ‘regression to the mean’ or a ‘bounceback’ and ‘letdown’ scenario, this matchup is a classic example of this concept.  Ironically, before last week’s disparate results the Redskins had been a much better investment for NFL pointspread players in the previous month.  Prior to their humiliation by the Giants, the Redskins had covered five straight games despite a 2-3 SU mark.  Dallas, meanwhile, appeared to be entering one of their trademark December swoons, and had failed to cover in four of their last five games (2-3 SU).

Dallas and Washington played earlier this season at Cowboys Stadium, with the Redskins giving their hosts all they could handle in a 7-6 loss.   The Redskins have covered four of the last five in the series, and given the heated nature of this rivalry would love nothing more than to put a kink in the Cowboys’ playoff plans.  Dallas needs a win here and for Carolina to defeat the Giants to clinch a playoff berth this week.

Dallas was a -10′ favorite earlier this year at home and now they’re a -7 favorite in this spot.  The line is somewhat inflated due to the Cowboys’ ‘needing’ this game for a playoff berth, as well as the public perception of the teams based on their last two performances.  Only one of the last five games in the series has been decided by more than a touchdown (and that was a Redskins victory).  Its very doubtful that the Redskins will ‘quit’ in this game if for no other reason than individual self preservation.  There was a big front office shakeup before the Giants game with Bruce Allen being named the team’s new GM.  It may be too late for head coach Jim Zorn, but for the rest of the players and coaching staff they’re auditioning for their jobs.  Look for a solid effort from the underdog in their final home game of the year against their hated rivals.

Bet Washington +7 over Dallas

Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals
December 27th 10:00 AM Pacific

The Bengals lost a hard fought game at San Diego last weekend, though they did deliver a poinstpread victory for football betting enthusiasts.  Now they’re in a situation where they need to win to clinch a playoff berth.  Cincinnati hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2005, and they’ve now lost two straight games in situations where a win would punch their postseason ticket.  They also have to be concerned about the Baltimore Ravens, who can also send Cincinnati to the playoffs by losing one of their remaining two games.  The Ravens play a vulnerable Pittsburgh Steelers team on Sunday and an even weaker Oakland team in their final game, so they’re not in a position where they can count on a Baltimore loss.

Cincinnati has been a very erratic pointspread team this season that has shown a tendency to  play ‘up’ to tough opposition and ‘down’ against teams they should beat.  The Bengals have been a horrible favorite not only this year where they’re 0-6 ATS in that role but in recent years with a 5-14 ATS mark as a chalk in the past three seasons.  The Bengals have been a favorite of more than a touchdown in three games this season and, obviously, didn’t cover in any including an outright loss to Oakland as a -9 choice.  They now enter this game as a favorite of nearly two touchdowns without having demonstrated the pedigree this year to warrant that price.  Adding to that concern has been Cincinnati’s diminished offensive productivity in the second half of the season, where they’ve become a running based team behind Cedric Benson and have failed to score more than 20 points in 5 of their last 7 games.

Adding to Cincinnati’s woes in this spot is the aftermath of Chris Henry’s tragic death.  As we predicted last week, the Bengals came out with great intensity against San Diego to honor their fallen teammate and delivered the pointspread cover.  This week is a different matter, and the Bengals could be much more emotionally drained after the Christmas holiday and Henry’s funeral.  As we discussed last week, this is the second death in the organization that Cincinnati has dealt with this year.  The week after defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer’s wife died, a fired up Bengals team upset the Baltimore Ravens in one of their best defensive efforts of the season.  The following week, however, they lost outright to the Houston Texans as a -4 favorite.

The Chiefs are certainly not one of the NFL’s better teams, but they’ve shown much more life in the last month of the season covering three straight with two outright wins.  They’ll enter this game loose and play without pressure.  Cincinnati, meanwhile, not only has the pressure of securing a playoff berth as well as the emotional fallout from their second death close to the team this season.  Plus they’re facing an inflated line due to their ‘must win’ status after being a horrible favorite all season long.  They may not get the outright win, but we like the Chiefs to keep this one close.

Bet Kansas City +13′ over Cincinnati

San Diego Chargers at Tennessee Titans
December 25th, 4:30 PM Pacific

In a matchup between two hot teams, obviously the first thought is to take the dog plus the points.  San Diego, in particular, is a very attractive underdog in this spot as they’ve gotten better as the season winds down during the Norv Turner era.  They’re currently on a 12-0 SU/9-3 ATS run in December during the Turner regime.  The Chargers will have to contend with Tennessee’s Chris Johnson who has been playing out of his mind averaging 140 yards per game rushing during the Titans recent run of success.

Overall, we think the Chargers are the more well rounded and better coached team.  They’re on a 9-2 run against the AFC South, and are on a 9-4 run as an underdog over the past three years.  The Chargers also have a ’snowball’ tendency, where they play better as they pile up wins:  San Diego is 16-5 ATS after two or more wins.  Furthermore, the Titans have made much of their most recent progress against losing teams.  Tennessee has only covered one of their last nine matchups against winning teams.  The Chargers have also dominated in head to head play, going 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread.  We like the Chargers to win outright here and deliver a Merry Christmas to underdog players in sportsbooks everywhere.

Bet San Diego +3 over Tennessee