Chicago Blackhawks at Philadelphia Flyers
June 9, 5:05 PM Pacific

The Flyers have won 10 of the last 11 meetings against Chicago at home, but we’re looking for the Blackhawks to wrap up the series here.  They’ve finally figured out that the way to beat the Flyers is ’shock and awe’ offense, and Philadelphia simply can’t match Chicago’s skill players.  When leading 3-2 in a series the Blackhawks are 12-7 in Game 6 and 16-3 in the series.  The Flyers, on the other hand, are 6-9 in Game 6 when trailing 2-3 and 2-13 in series.  The Blackhawks are on a four game winning streak in Game 6, and the Flyers won their second series down 2-3 earlier in this playoffs when they came back to beat Boston.

We’ll also go Over the total once again–the two teams have combined for 40 goals in the first 5 games, which is the most through five games of a Stanley Cup finals since 1981.  Four of the five games of the series have gone over the total, and we look for the offense to continue in Game 6.  The Flyers have gone Over in 8 of their last 11, while the Blackhawks have gone Over in 6 of 9.  The Blackhawks wrap up the Stanley Cup in another offensive shootout.

Bet Chicago -105 over Philadelphia
Bet Chicago/Philadelphia Over 5′ -125

Philadelphia Flyers at Chicago Blackhawks
June 6, 5:05 PM Pacific

Statistically, the Blackhawks are a strong choice to win Game 5 on home ice.  In best of 7 NHL series with each team winning on their home ice, Game 5 is won by the home team 58.5% of the time.  In the finals, however, the home team has won 9 of 10 spots for a healthy 90% clip.  Despite this statistical edge for the Blackhawks, we’re not really interested in laying -200 against the pesky Flyers.

We will, however, look at a position on the total.  Chicago led the NHL during the regular season in fewest shots on goal against with 25.1 per game.  They’ve been unable to bottle up the Flyers’ offense to that degree, with Philadelphia getting 30+ shots on goal during every game of this series.  Heading into the playoffs, the goaltending for both teams was considered something of a liability.  For that reason, both teams really need to score goals to win–they simply don’t have the shutdown goaltending that allows them to prevail in a defensive struggle.  Game 2 was something of an anomaly, but the other three games have seen 11, 7 and 8 goals scored for an average of 8.6 goals per game.  For that reason we’ll go Over the total and get a plus money price.

Bet Chicago/Philadelphia Over 6 +110

Philadelphia Flyers at Chicago Blackhawks
May 31, 5:05 PM Pacific

Philadelphia and Chicago are #1 and #2 respectively for the best goals against per game in the playoffs, but you wouldn’t have been able to tell it from the 11 goal defensive train wreck in the first game of this series.  The goaltending for both teams has been a question mark throughout the season, and it appeared to all come home to roost at once.  Both teams finished with 32 shots on goal, and even with those numbers a 6-5 score is borderline insane.

Don’t expect to see more of the same in Game 2.  The coaches for both teams will be stressing the importance of defense, and that should be more of a priority in the second game.  The Flyers weren’t a great defensive team during the regular season (#14 in goals against per game) but they were very good at limiting opponent’s shots on goal.  Philly was #5 in the NHL in shots on goal against per game with 28.6.  The Blackhawks, of course, were #1 allowing only 25.1 shots on goal per game.  In other words, we look for a better performance by both team’s goaltenders and fewer shots on net as the principles in this game return to their usual defensive form.

Accordingly, we’ll play this game Under the total.  The shootout in game 1 gives us good value, with the posted total at 6 flat.  The Flyers won the only meeting of the regular season 3-2, and 11 of the last 16 meetings between these teams have gone Under including 5 of the last 8 in Chicago.

Bet Chicago/Philadelphia Under 6 -110

San Jose Sharks at Chicago Blackhawks
May 21, 5:05 PM Pacific

With all due respect to the Sharks’ regular season success, the Blackhawks caught a perfect matchup in the conference finals against San Jose.  Heading into the playoffs, there was some concern that a physical, grinding team could cause trouble for Chicago.  The Sharks, on the other hand, play a very similar style to the Hawks–only Chicago is younger, faster and arguably more talented.  At this point, they have to be seen as the team with the best chance of capturing the Stanley Cup.

A Game 3 spot where a team goes on the road after losing the first two at home is one of the toughest in sports, and that’s very much the case for the Sharks here.  We’re thinking the Blackhawks continue their winning ways, but we like the total in this game much more than the side play.  When both teams are playing at their best, they’re scoring goals.  Both have the personnel and the ability to win close checking defensive games, but as both sides have superior offensive talent when they’re really clicking on all cylinders they’re getting a lot of odd man rushes and scoring goals.  Conversely, neither team really has the personnel to force the opponent into a physical battle.  We’re going to play this game Over the total–if the Blackhawks continue to roll they’ll get goals, if the Sharks are able to be competitive they’ll get goals.  San Jose has gone Over in 6 of their last 8, while Chicago has 6 Overs and 2 pushes in their last 10 games.  Head to head, 6 of the last 8 meetings have gone Over the total.  At a ‘pick’em’ price we’ll play this game to go Over 5′.

Play Chicago/San Jose Over 5′ -110

Chicago Blackhawks at San Jose Sharks
May 18, 7:00 PM Pacific

We expected this to be a hard fought series, and we like the Blackhawks to emerge victorious.  We think San Jose will strike back in Game 2 however.  Blackhawks have now won 4 of the last 5 head to head, though every game except one has been decided by a single goal.  Dating back a couple of years, San Jose has a narrow 7-6 advantage in the last 13 games played.  That’s kind of the way its been, with two evenly matched teams that matchup well offensively and defensively going at it. This will be  tough one for online sports betting fans.

There’s quite a bit of technical precedent to boost the case for a San Jose win in Game 2.  It’s a difficult spot for any team in any sport to win back to back games on their opponent’s home floor.  In all of the ’stick and ball’ sports that use 7 game playoff series, teams that win Game 1 on the road are only a 32.6% SU winner in Game 2.  In the NHL, they fare a little better overall but are still just a 35.7% Game 2 winner.  In the Conference Finals, the performance of a road team that wins Game 1 is the same in Game 2 as in all sports–32.6%.  The psychological dynamic here is obvious, as the road team has a tendency to ‘let up’ in the second game knowing they’ve got an advantage while the home team doesn’t want to run the risk of going down 0-3 with the next two games on enemy ice.  In an otherwise even series, we’ll back the technical data in this Game 2 spot and back the Sharks.

Bet San Jose -140 over Chicago

Montreal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers
May 16, 4:05 PM Pacific

Teams that win 7 game series are notoriously bad bets in the first game of the subsequent series, but here we’ve got a pair of teams that won a decisive game on enemy ice to advance.  We’re thinking that the ‘7 game effect’ will more profoundly impact the Flyers for a couple of reasons.  First, they’re the home team.  Second, the nature of their series–going down 0-3 and winning 4 straight games–seems to lend itself more to a ‘letdown effect’.   Philly and Montreal split 4 regular season games, with each team winning once at home and once on the road.  Habs have done well against the Flyers in Philadelphia over the years, with a 15-10-3 record.

The Bruins were the higher seeded team in their series with the Flyers, but were a team with a number of glaring weaknesses.  They over-relied on their rookie goaltending sensation Tuukka Rask, and as the series progressed played increasingly bad defense in front of him.  And, of course, the Bruins were a pitiful offensive team all year.  You can make a very good argument that the Flyers didn’t so much win the series as the Bruins lost it.  Montreal is a completely different story–they’ve got not only the best goalie left in the playoffs in Jaroslav Halek but also the one in best form.  He’s been playing insane hockey, and there’s plenty of precedent for a hot goalie taking his team all the way to the Stanley Cup finals.  Flyers will be without Brian Boucher here, although Michael Leighton played well in relief.  Leighton won’t have it as easy against Montreal, however, as they’re playing well on offense–particularly Michael Cammalleri who has 12 goals and 6 assists in 14 playoff games.  We think Montreal is the better team here, and they’ve obviously played a much higher level of opposition.  We’ll back them to get the series started with a Game 1 victory.

Bet Montreal +115 over Philadelphia

Boston Bruins at Philadelphia Flyers
May 12, 4:05 PM Pacific

Flyers won Game 5, but lost goaltender Brian Boucher to injury.  Michael Leighton will get the start in net for Philadelphia.   Bruins’ offense has improved in the postseason thanks to the return of Marc Savard, but they’ve heard a lot of criticism from the Boston media for their defense in front of goaltender Tuukka Rask.  Bruins should win this game and clinch the series–they’ve won 6 of the last 8 against the Flyers in Philadelphia–and you could justify a position on Boston based on the value.

A better position is the total and, counter-intuitively, we’ll be looking for this game to go Over.  Boston has only gone Under in 2 of their last 10 games, while Philadelphia has gone Under in only 2 of 9.  They’ve played in a lot of ‘pushes’ during that stretch, but that’s to be expected with most games having a total of 5.  9 of the last 15 and 6 of the last 8 at Philly have gone Over the total.  Only one game in this series has gone Under, and the two teams have combined for an average total of 6.8 goals per game.  We’ll look for another relatively high scoring affair here.

Bet Boston/Philadelphia Over 5 -140

Vancouver Canucks at Chicago Blackhawks
May 9, 5:05 PM Pacific

The home team with a 3-1 lead in NHL best of 7 series is a 68% winner in game 5, but we’re not keen on laying such a big price to back the Blackhawks.  Instead we’ll take a look at the total, which is a better value and should work regardless of which team emerges victorious.  The Canucks have been tempting fate all season, playing sloppy defense in front of Roberto Luongo and expecting him to take up the slack.  It’s coming back to haunt them now, and the Blackhawks have ripped the Canucks for 16 goals in the last three games.  The big question mark heading into this series was the Blackhawks’ goaltending, but with the Canucks defense that’s become a non-factor.  Chicago has been able to put a lot of points on the board, and this keeps pressure off their netminder.

So one of two things will happen here:  either Chicago will once again shred the Vancouver defense en route to a series clinching victory, or Vancouver will outscore Chicago and live to fight another day.  The Canucks simply don’t have the personnel to shut down Chicago’s offense, and particularly on the Blackhawks home ice.  Either way, it’ll be a high scoring game and should make for an easy Over.   Chicago has gone six straight without an Under (5-0-1 to the OV) and Vancouver has gone eight straight without going Under (7-0-1 OV).   The games in the series so far have had totals of 11,7, 6 and 6 and 11 of the last 17 meetings between the teams have exceeded the total.

Bet Chicago/Vancouver Over 6 -115

Boston Bruins at Philadelphia Flyers
May7, 4:05 PM Pacific

Everyone knows that teams down 0-3 in a 7 game series are essentially ‘dead men walking’.  In all of the major US sports there are only three teams that have *ever* come back from an 0-3 deficit to win a 7 game series.  That two of the three are in hockey is more a testament to the toughness and heart of NHL players than anything else.  That notwithstanding, teams with a 3-0 NHL series lead go on to win the series over 98% of the time.  The difficulty in surmounting the 0-3 deficit is underscored by the fact that throughout all sports right around 65% of these series end up in sweeps.  In the NHL, the team with a 3-0 is a 64.8% winning play in game 4 overall and a 65.6% play when they have home ice advantage.

We played Philadelphia to win their series against Buffalo, and cashed a couple of tickets on them in the individual games.  At the time, we thought that the Flyers may have been peaking at the right time of the year but its now apparent that they just lucked in to a perfect matchup.  They’d dominated Buffalo during the season, got better than expected goaltending from Brian Boucher and faced a Sabres team that had suffered some key injuries to crucial personnel.  Everything lined up perfectly for a Flyers win, but this series has been just the opposite.  The Bruins have struggled to score goals this season, but their offense has received a huge boost from the return of Marc Savard.  They’ve got a huge edge defensively, and particular in net where Tuukka Rask has quickly become one of the best netminders in the game.  The Bruins have lost center David Krejci to injury, but as long as playmaker Savard stays healthy they should be able to manage.  We look for the Bruins to complete the sweep and we’ll gladly take them as small dogs in Game 4.

Bet Boston +105 over Philadelphia

San Jose Sharks at Detroit Red Wings
May4, 4:35 PM Pacific

We expected the Red Wings to get a split in the first two games of the series, but that didn’t happen.  With the exception of a listless first period of game one by Detroit, both games at San Jose were close and competitive.  And facing the prospect of going down 3-0 with a loss here, this game becomes essentially a ‘must win’ contest for the Wings.  The good news for Detroit is that they’ve given the Sharks fits on their Joe Louis Arena home ice.  The Red Wings are on a 22-6-1 run against the Sharks on their home ice and more recently have won four of the last six.

While we’re not interested in laying the price and getting involved with Detroit–the teams are just too evenly matched for that–we are going to come back with another position on the game to go Over the total.  The teams have gone Over in both of the first two games of the series with 7 goals scored in each, and have gone Over in 3 of the last 4 head to head.  Both are capable of playing good defensive hockey, but so far they’ve not had much trouble getting shots and scoring on each other.  At 5′ flat we’ll look for this series to once again play Over the total.

Bet Detroit/San Jose Over 5′ -110