UFC 109:  Chael Sonnen vs. Nate Marquardt
February 5, 7 PM Pacific

MMA betting is no different than any other form of sports betting –find the value and you’ll make money over the long haul.  The reality of MMA is that once you get past the very top tier of fighters there’s a lot of parity the rest of the way.  For that reason, its usually possible to find live underdogs on almost every card.  The nature of fight promotion often results in a ‘public perception’ that one fighter is far superior to another, while in reality that’s simply not the case.

That dynamic is at work in this fight.  Both Chael Sonnen and Nate Marquardt are double tough and experienced professionals.  Marquardt got his start in the Japanese organization Pancrase, and is a former middleweight King of Pancrase title holder.  He’s won 8 of 10 fights since transitioning to the UFC, most recently overwhelming Brazilian Jiu Jitsu prodigy Demian Maia with a first round knockout.  His two losses in the UFC have both come when stepping up in class, against middleweight champ Anderson Silva and a controversial split decision loss to Thales Leites.

Sonnen’s fighting background is in Greco Roman wrestling, and he fights out of Portland, Oregon where he trains with highly regarded Team Quest along with Matt Lindland, Ed Herman, Enoch Wilson and other top notch fighters.  Like Marquardt, Sonnen has a very impressive record boasting 9 wins in his last 11 fights.  His losses came to Paulo Fihlo via a controversial submission in which the fight was stopped despite Sonnen repeatedly saying ‘No’ when asked if he wanted to submit.  He would avenge this loss less than a year later.  His other defeat came via submission to BJJ monster Maia.

For whatever reason, the UFC has put more of its promotional muscle behind Marquardt than the comparatively low key Sonnen.  That may explain the disparity in the fight odds here, as based on these two fighters’ experience and skill set its a much closer matchup than the sportsbook prices suggest.  Marquardt has a black belt in BJJ and the corresponding advantage in submissions, but Sonnen is well versed in submission defense.  Sonnen’s strategy–like many Team Quest fighters–is to ‘win ugly’ via takedowns and control of his opponent on the ground.  This is a very even matchup between two first rate ground fighters, and for that reason Sonnen is a great value as a 3/1 underdog.  If he can fend off Marquardt’s submission attempts, he’s got a very legitimate chance of taking a decision victory.  In any case, Sonnen is a great value at the price.

Bet Chael Sonnen +300 over Nate Marquardt

WEC:  Urijah Faber vs. Raphael Assuncao
January 10, Main card begins 6 PM Pacific

Partially this is a play against Urijah Faber, who is making his return to action for the first time since the second Mike Brown fight. Faber severely inured both hands during the bout and required surgery on one. This will be his first return to action since surgery. At 30, Faber is a little too young to be a ’shot fighter’ but he’s lost 2 of his last 3 bouts with the only win coming against Jens Pulver (who is nearing the end of his career). Granted, both losses were to Brown who is one of the best in the world at the weight but ultimately it may be a case where the competition in the WEC is catching up to him. The reality is that he may just be a very good fighter instead of a great fighter, and as every fight fan knows hand injuries are very difficult to heal properly.  His hands could cause him trouble for the rest of his career. Another problem with Faber is that he doesn’t have the best technical background–he’s a good wrestler and has effective if unorthodox standup but his style is more to outwork his opponent a la Clay Guida. At some point as he gets older that’s a tough style to maintain against younger fighters.

Raphael Assuncao is also no joke. He’s 14-1 with his only loss a majority decision to tough Jeff Curran. He hasn’t exactly dominated since coming to the WEC but he’s won both fights by decision. Not the highest level of competition in his career but he’s got a couple of solid wins over Bellator’s Jorge Masvidal and current UFC fighter Joe Lauzon. He’s got a background in BJJ and Muay Thai and is a pretty solid all around fighter. His ground game could be the difference in this fight as Faber likes to take opponents to the ground but doesn’t have the submission defense to counter a solid BJJ fighter. We won’t go so far as to say that Assunaco should be favored, but this is a lot closer to a ‘pick’em’ fight than the price suggests. ‘True odds’ Faber shouldn’t be more than a -200 favorite so its a good overlay.

Bet Raphael Assuncao +285 over Urijah Faber

For the most part, it’s a good idea to stay away from fighters who are extremely large favorites (-500 and above) in most situations.  One punch is all it takes to end a fight and playing large odds on a fighter who has a weak chin, no matter how easy the bet looks, is a good way to lose all your money.

If you look back at the biggest betting upsets in the mixed martial arts world, 6 of the top 8 were a result of the heavily favored fighter being knocked out.  When Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou stepped into the ring against Antonio Rogerio Nogueira at Pride 33, no one thought the younger, inexperienced fighter had a chance as a +1500 underdog.  One thing that Sokoudjou did have was raw power and it took him only 23 seconds to knock out his Brazilian foe, en route to becoming the biggest underdog that the mixed martial arts world has ever seen.  At +850, Matt Serra owns the second biggest mixed martial arts upset with his first round knockout of UFC champion Georges St. Pierre.  Although Serra had never shown knockout ability before, it just goes to show you that anyone can get knocked out at any given time and you should stay away from heavily favored fighters when betting on this sport. 

Even the UFC’s best fighter, Anderson “The Spider” Silva, has been a victim of a huge betting upset before.  At Pride 26, the knockout artist was a victim of a submission by Daiju Takase.  With a current record of 7-13-1, Takase is not an upper level fighter but he was able to pull off some magic and cash a huge +800 ticket for anyone who decided to fade the huge favorites that night.

Another great rule is to limit your bets and not bet on every single fight that the card has to offer.  In most other sports, you’ll want to bet on nearly every game that you find value on but in this sport where there is way fewer chances to bet, it becomes easy to try and win every single fight.  It’s much easier to bet on only the top two or three fights that you like because betting on everything in this sport is a good way to lose your money.  Just because there are fewer chances to bet every month is not a good reason to get a lot of bets in. 

Figuring out how the two fighters match up against each other is going to be integral toward deciding on which fighters you want to back.  For instance, if a strong striker with bad takedown defense is favored over a less-experienced collegiate wrestler who has shown a strong chin, you’ll want to make an underdog bet on the wrestler.  It might not win, but situations like this where you can get on an underdog who can possibly exploit the better fighters’ weaknesses are a solid way to achieve some nice profit when betting on mixed martial arts. 

Another good way to make money is to play the underdog if you have two guys with serious knockout power who are likely to stand up and trade blows.  Houston Alexander came into his fight with Keith Jardine as a +450 underdog but with both guys being stand up fighters, you had to expect them to throw blows until one fighter goes down.  Jardine had the better credentials but Houston Alexander had insane power and ended up with the knockout victory in a fight that could have gone either way.  Power is a great neutralizer in a fight like this and anything can happen in this sport.

Remember these simple mixed martial arts betting rules and the handicapping advice and you will be well on your way to making a nice chunk of change on the fastest rising sport in America.  The sport is still new and the lines are still soft as a result so now is the time to strike and take some money from your bookies’ pocket.