There are two primary ways to bet on a NASCAR race.  The first, is to pick the winner of the race outright.  Since even the top drivers are typically ‘plus money’ underdogs (for example, defending NASCAR champ Jimmie Johnson is +500 to win the Daytona race) generally you take positions on several drivers and distribute your wagers so that if any win you turn a profit.  The other common betting method is head to head driver matchups, which are similar to head to head matchups in golf.  Online betting sites quote prices on ‘driver A’ vs. ‘driver B’ and if the driver you bet on finishes ahead of the other driver you win your wager.

We’ll focus on a driver matchup for today’s race:

Daytona 500
February 14, 10:00 AM Pacific

One of the great things about handicapping NASCAR is that there are so many statistics available to work with.  Every practice is timed and evaluated, every driver’s performance at every track is dissected in a variety of ways.  A frequently heard term among NASCAR fans is a driver’s ‘average finish’ at a track.  Unfortunately, these can be somewhat misleading for our purposes and particularly at a restrictor plate track like Daytona.  A driver can have a better average finish but be less of a threat to actually win the race than a lower ranked driver.

Such is the case with our matchup today.  Brian Vickers has an average finish of 19.6 in five previous career starts at Daytona, with his highest finish coming last July (7th place).  Ryan Newman’s average finish is only 28 for his entire career.  In his last 16 starts, however, its 20.9 with three top tens and the 2008 Daytona 500 victory.  Over the past 10 races he’s among the top 10 best performing drivers.

NASCAR is a sport where drivers can have 20 or 30 year long careers, so its important to put career records into the context of current form.  In the most recent races, Newman has been one of the best drivers at Daytona and he represents a good value in his matchup with Vickers.  He’s also a good value to win the race at 30/1.

Bet Ryan Newman -115 over Brian Vickers

Dover International Speedway

Sunday, September 27 1:00pm (ABC)

The second leg of the Chase for the Cup takes place this week at Dover’s famed “Monster Mile”.

 Mark Martin showed last week that he is someone to be reckoned with if you want the NASCAR title after taking the win at New Hampshire. The 50 year old veteran with 20 plus years of experience has 40 career wins, is one of the most popular drivers of all time and is a future Hall of Fame inductee but has yet to add a Cup championship to his resume. The time is now for Martin and he has a lot of the NASCAR faithful pulling for him.

As for this week, Dover has been a very good track historically for Roush-Fenway, especially Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth. The trio collectively since 2005 has 27 starts/4 wins/16 Top 5’s/22 Top 10’s and an average finish of 7.52, bad news is 2009 has not been a banner year for Roush or Ford in general.

In the spring race this year Jimmie Johnson dominated leading 298 laps on his way to the win over Tony Stewart and Biffle. By the way JJ is also good here….what a shock.

Here are this weeks favorites and sleepers:

Favorites

Jimmie Johnson

Won handily here in the spring. In 15 career starts has 4 wins/6 Top 5’s/10 Top 10’s with an average finish of 10.4. Had struggled a bit with bad luck in a few races going into the Chase but proved last week that this is Jimmie time with a 4th place finish at New Hampshire. No reason to think he will not be Top 3 material this Sunday and the favorite for the win.

Greg Biffle

This is definitely one of Biff’s best tracks and has openly said that he will be severly disappointed if he is not at the front come Sunday. Think he will be the best chance for Roush this week, to be honest he is the only Roush driver to show up the past month or two having 5 Top 10’s in the last 8 races. His stats at Dover: 14 starts/2 wins/6 top 5’s/9 top 10’s with an average of 10.6. Has not finished worse than 8th in the last 7 races(including 4 straight in the Top 3).

Mark Martin

The “kid” is en fuego right now. 1st, 4th, 5th and 2nd the last four races. Sunday was his 5th win of the year. Bad news for the other Chase contenders, Mark is good at Dover: 29 Top 10’s in 46 career starts(including 9 of the last 11 with a 7.36 average)

Carl Edwards

Even though this team has had some troubles this year you can’t overlook their past performances here. In 10 career starts has a 7.6 average with 1 win/5 Top 5’s /7 Top 10’s (has never finished outside the Top 18). Has 6 straight Top 7 finishes,  5 of those were Top 3’s.

Sleepers

Matt Kenseth

The other member of the Roush trio. Only 3 Top 10’s the last 11 races in 2009 with the highest finish of 8th but like his teammates has great history here. Has 4 Top 5’s in the last 5 starts at Dover. In the one race he didn’t finish Top 5 he blew an engine and finished 35th but not before leading 192 laps (the most of any driver).

Denny Hamlin

In the sleeper category only because of his recent history at Dover, 4 straight finishes of 36th or worse, nothing but bad luck.

Has been one of the hottest drivers the past couple of months, 11 Top 10’s the past 13 races(including 7 Top 5’s and 2 wins) if around at the end a good bet for a Top 5-8 finish maybe even better.

Ryan Newman

Another driver thats been on a consistent roll. Newman has been out performing his teammate Tony Stewart the last 5-6 races. On a steak of 4 straight Top 10’s and only one finish worse than 15th the last 9.

Early in his career this was an outstanding track for Newman with 3 wins in his first 6 starts, has simmered off but did run 8th here in June.

Juan Montoya

Not a great track for JPM but this guy is in it to win it. Great second place run last week at New Hampshire and wouldn’t be surprised if he is a threat again this week.

Jeff Burton

My gut pick of the week. This team does have good history at Dover but RCR has struggled mightily and combine that with rotten luck and 2009 has been a real downer for Jeff Burton. The Childress teams have shown signs of life as of late and Burton was on his way to a Top 10 last week before a late race tangle set him back to 16th. So this team may be on a up tick.

His numbers at Dover: Has finished Top 16 or better in 14 of the last 15 with an average finish of 10.1 that includes 1 win/4 Top 5’s/8 Top 10’s not sure if he will be in the mix for the win but maybe a good play for a match-up or prop.

Should be a good one on Sunday. Lets go racing!

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Sunday September 20  1:00pm

The Chase is on! The much anticipated NASCAR playoff starts this weekend at New Hampshire, twelve drivers will battle over the next ten races for the biggest prize in all of stock car racing.

Mark Martin begins the Chase as the point leader in lieu of having the most race wins over the first 26 races of the season. Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson are 2nd and 3rd ten points behind, while Denny Hamlin and Kasey Kahne round out the top five. Both are 20 points in back of Martin.

As for this week’s race at NHMS the key word is patience, especially for the Chase drivers. This is pretty much a flat race track and can be difficult to pass so a cool head is key and that definitely favors someone like Mark Martin. Here are the favorites and sleepers for this week:

Favorites

Denny Hamlin

If its a flat race track Hamlin has to be on the list. In 7 starts at NHMS, 5 Top 10’s/2 Top 5’s/ 1 win and an avg. finish of 8.3. Comes into this race on a streak of six straight Top 10’s (5.5 avg.). After some adversity through the first part of the season this team has put the pieces together and may be the one to beat over these next ten races.

Jimmie Johnson

When is he not on this list? This team has had a little trouble of their own in a few races lately but this is the time when the 48 guys start to shine.

At New Hampshire JJ has only finished out of the Top 10 once in the last eight races (10.9 avg). His career stats here: 15 starts/10 Top 10’s/4 Top 5’s/2 wins/9.9 avg. Not his best track but think he will be sniffing the front come Sunday.

Jeff Gordon

Not a surprise here either. Three second place finishes in the last five races here. Has three wins also but none since ‘98. Has finished second four times since his last win at Texas in the spring so Jeff is close and due to get a win soon.

Kurt Busch

Not sure how the news of crew chief Pat Tryson leaving Penske at the end of the year will affect this team for the remainder of 2009 (seem to be ok last week finishing second at Richmond) but you can’t overlook Kurt’s recent accomplishments at this track, 3rd, 6th and 1st the last three trips to New England. Has three wins in the last 11 starts at NHMS.

Mark Martin

This is the sentimental favorite and he will be interesting to watch. MM doesn’t have great history here (only 2 Top 10’s in his last 11 starts) but the June race was his only start here since 2006. His smart, patient style may pay dividends.

Sleepers

Martin Truex

It has been a dismal year for Truex and this DEI/Ganassi team but if he is going to make any noise before this season ends this may be the race, by far one of his best tracks. Had a streak of 4 straight Top 7 finishes until the race in June,  he was caught up in an accident while running in the Top 10 and wound up 37th. Top 10 or better a good possibility.

David Reutimann

Just have a feeling about this one. Did run 4th here in June, 15th and 19th in 2008. Has had good runs(8 Top 10’s and a win) and bad runs(finished 28th or worse six times) in 2009, but this team has shown tons of improvement this season. Four of those Top 10’s this year were on flat racetracks.

Looking forward to getting this going, enjoy the race!

Pep Boys Auto 500

Atlanta Motor Speedway

Sunday September 6th @ 7:00PM

Atlanta Motor Speedway plays host to the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series for the second time in 2009 and with only two races remaining in the Race for the Chase it promises to be quite interesting if not exciting.

While current points leader Tony Stewart down to sixth place Kurt Busch are all but locked in, the focus shifts to the eight teams that are 7th through 14th in the standings which are seperated by only 89 points.

Going into Sunday’s race Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle, Juan Pablo Montoya, Mark Martin, Kasey Kahne and Matt Kenseth are in but Kyle Busch and Brian Vickers are ready to crash the party if any one of those teams are not up at the wheel.

Roush-Fenway has done well at AMS, even better as of late. In the spring race this year four of Roush’s five teams placed 19th or better and in this particular race last year all five were Top 10 which included race winner Carl Edwards. So this bodes well for Biffle and Kenseth.

Outside of Vickers the rest of the contenders have had their share of problems here. Kahne and Kyle Busch have been feast or famine the past few years while Newman, Martin and Montoya have struggled for a variety of reasons. Only two Top 10’s combined for those three drivers over the past 5 races here.

As for who will wind up in Victory Lane on Sunday night, keep your eye on:

1) Jimmie Johnson (of course)

Has an average finish of 5.2 the last five here which includes two wins and a second place finish

2) Carl Edwards

His career numbers at Atlanta: In ten starts has an average finish of 10.7 (which amazingly includes two finishes of 40th or worse) six Top 5’s and three wins.

3) Jeff Gordon

Jeff is due. Has not won since Texas in April, has finished second five times since that race. Good numbers at AMS: 7.0 average finish the last five starts and finished second here in the spring

4) Denny Hamlin

This team is putting the pieces together after a lot of tough breaks earlier in the year. Seven Top 10’s the last eight races in 2009 which includes four Top 5’s and a win at Pocono.

5) Kyle Busch

Underestimated him last week. Thought for sure he would make a major mistake with the pressure of having to race his way into the Chase but instead he did a great job of working his way to the front and putting himself in a position to win at the end. So if he can do it at Bristol, why not here, won the spring race in 2008.

6) Kurt Busch

Don’t forget about big brother Kurt. Good history at AMS, his worst finish in the past five races there has been 11th and he won the race this past spring. He is solidly in the Chase so his main goal this weekend is to get the win and the 10 bonus points that comes with it.

7) Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Looks like the chemistry between Jr. and crew chief Lance McGrew is starting to cook. This team has made obvious strides the past month putting together back-to-back Top 10 runs and with Atlanta being a good track historically for Jr. (11.6 average finish in 20 starts/ 8 Top 5’s and a win) should be three in a row.

Clint Bowyer

These guys have to be disappointed with their misfortune at Bristol that all but eliminated them from the Chase, but before then this team was on the up-tick and I think that may re-continue this weekend. All RCR teams have had success At AMS and Bowyer has finished sixth in four of the last five here.

This has all the makings of a good one on Sunday night so make sure to check it out.

Nascar Sportsbooks

Red Byron was the first ever race winner at this track while Curtis Turner took the first pole way back in 1945 while Jeff Gordon, Darrell Waltrip, and Fred Lorenzen are the only drivers to ever win 2 races here from the pole. Lorenzen holds the consecutive win record at this track with 4.

The all-time leader for victories at this track is Richard Petty with 15. Petty also has the record for the most victories as a car owner here with 19.

Airing live on Fox at 1:30 PM EST, the race will be 500 laps which comes out to roughly 263 miles with the track being on a .526 mile oval. Last year’s winner, Denny Hamlin, will start in the 8th spot in his FedEx Toyota and had the fastest 1st practice speed on this track.

Hamlin will have some strong competition looking to knock him from the top including the Dupont Chevrolet of Jeff Gordon who currently sits atop the point standings. Gordon has won seven times on this track already and has an average finish of 3.5 which makes him amongst the favorites to take home the trophy for the 3rd time. Gordon also has the all-time track record for poles with 7.

The only man who has a better average finish on this track is Jimmie Johnson with his 2.7 average. Johnson and his Lowe’s Chevrolet will start in the 9th position in this race while trying to climb up from the 9th overall spot in the point standings.

Gordon and Johnson have combined to win 9 of the last 12 races at Martinsville.

Hamlin is the only other driver to average a top-10 or better finish on this track with an impressive number of 8.9 that is somewhat weighed down by a 37th place finish in 2006.

Kurt Busch (Dodge) is 2nd in the point standings and draws the #2 starting spot at Goody’s. Behind him are Clint Bowyer (Chevy), Kyle Busch (Toyota), and Carl Edwards (Ford). Kyle is trying to go for a season sweep of the short track races at this Martinsville track