CFL TOTALS:

In many ways, handicapping CFL totals is identical to handicapping NFL totals.  Teams that favor the rushing game and keep the clock moving, or strong defensive teams are more likely to produce ‘Under’ results.  Teams that throw on almost every down or turn the ball over alot are likely to produce ‘Overs’.   Most of the CFL specific rules don’t appear to have a significant impact on either inflating or deflating final scores.  The CFL ‘three downs’ for offensive teams basically evens out–it results in more possession changes (which in theory should increase scoring) but also in fewer sustained drives (which theoretically decreases scoring).  The presence of a ’single’ also has minimal if any impact on final scores–this seems slightly counterintuitive since it’s another way for teams to score but it seldom has a measurable impact on totals.  Teams seldom ‘try’ to make a single–since many come from missed field goal attempts teams would much rather get the three points for making the attempt rather than settle for one.

WEATHER:

Weather is a significant consideration for NFL totals handicappers, but surprisingly its not a major factor for most of the CFL season.  Occasionally there will be games played in the rain or in strong winds, but the league’s July to October season manages to avoid the worst winter weather.  That being said, bad weather is a very common occurrence late in the season and into the Grey Cup playoffs.  A diligent handicapper considers the weather in any outdoor sport regardless of the time of year, but in CFL football it doesn’t have much influence on the game until the latter part of the season.

THE MOST IMPORTANT THING TO REMEMBER:

The most important thing to remember about CFL totals doesn’t involve statistics or trends–it’s a function of how the game is perceived outside of Canada and how that perception influences the linesmaking process.  The casual sports betting enthusiast, particularly in the United States, often has an incorrect impression of the CFL game.  Much of that is due to the minimal coverage the league receives in the mainstream US sports media, and how few games have been shown on US TV over the years.

It’s amazing that one game could color the perception of the sport for years to come, but with the CFL that’s not far from the truth.  The 84th Grey Cup in 1996 between Toronto and Edmonton was televised on ESPN in the United States and may very well have had the biggest American audience for a CFL TV broadcast in history.  This was the famous ‘Snow Bowl’ that was played in a heavy snowstorm in Hamilton, Ontario and featured then Toronto Argonaut Doug Flutie, a familiar face to US fans.  The back and forth game was a very entertaining spectacle, and when it was over Toronto emerged victorious by a 43-37 score.

The game was the second highest scoring Grey Cup in history (Saskatchewan beat Hamilton 43-40 in 1989) but without the context provided by regular coverage of the CFL, many casual US sports fans assumed that it was a typical day of Canadian Football.  To this day, many football fans who don’t see the CFL regularly think that its essentially an outdoor version of Arena Football with similarly inflated scorelines.

That couldn’t be further from the truth, but since sportsbooks set lines to reflect public perception the result has been that the average CFL total is often shaded several points *higher* than it likely should be.  Since the ‘public’ likes to play ‘Overs’ anyway and since so much of the betting world has an incorrect perception of the nature of the CFL game more often than not the best value position is on the ‘Under’.

Now, this isn’t to say that you should blindly play the ‘Under’ on every CFL game or that the ‘Over’ is never the right side.  In fact, my first CFL play of the season this year was a winning ‘Over’ on the opening game between Montreal and Saskatchewan.  What is important is to understand the true nature of how the CFL game works and that in many respects its just like the NFL in terms of how the serious bettor approaches handicapping it.  On the other hand, since CFL totals are often shaded higher than the statistical data justifies there are numerous good opportunities to play ‘Under’ the total during the course of the season.

England had high expectations heading into the World Cup and that–combined with the ubiquity of sports betting in the country–resulted in a ton of action on the ‘Three Lions’.  Along with England’s passion for soccer exists an equally strong passion for gambling, and there may not be a sports league on the planet where betting is much of an integral part of the game as the English Premier League.  Premier League teams have bookmakers’ logos on their uniforms and are allowed to operate wagering kiosks at the stadium on game day.  All you need to do to appreciate just how ingrained sports betting is in English soccer is turn on a televised game–you’ll often see big computer generated ads in the statement with in-running betting quotes during the match itself.

While England had–on paper at least–a good team heading into the World Cup, many sports handicappers quickly realized that the low odds on them to win were based as much on the prevalence of sports betting in the culture as anything else.  That’s probably much of the reason that a very good team like Portugal was priced at +3000 or higher before the tournament–the country has a very restrictive position toward sports betting.  The government runs a legal sports betting monopoly in Portugal, and online betting is illegal there.

You don’t need to be a forensic accountant to realize that bookmakers were holding a lot of money on England, and with their elimination on Sunday they can now breathe a sigh of relief.  They don’t want to come right out and say that they’re happy England lost, but from a financial standpoint they most definitely are.  David Stevens, who works for a large European betting establishment called BetCoral, had this to say:

“On the one hand we have been spared a potential £50 million payout that World Cup success for England would have cost us, so Germany’s victory is cause for some celebration.”

The potential flip side is an erosion of interest among the casual fans:

“However, we would expect England’s absence to signal a downturn in interest in the rest of the tournament among our customers, and more importantly, we’re all suffering as England fans right now, as not even we wanted us to lose to Germany, especially when we scored a perfectly legitimate goal!”

Bet 365’s Steve Freeth sounded a similar tone:

“We’re pleased that we’ve got one of the biggest positions in our outright book turned over, but disappointed that England have been knocked out of the tournament at such an early stage.”

Bookmakers also benefited from England’s offensive struggles and particularly those of Wayne Rooney. Rooney was the favorite for ‘most goals in the World Cup’ before the tournament, but he ended up not scoring any.

When making the transition from a recreational or casual bettor into a more serious approach to sports handicapping, its necessary to start using a systematic approach to evaluate the daily matchups.  Power ratings are the most fundamental element of most serious handicapping methodologies, and are used in some form by bookmakers in setting the line as well as most successful professional sports bettors.  At their most basic, power ratings are a qualitative ranking of teams in a particular sport from top to bottom.  In pointspread based sports they’re formulated to reflect the ‘true line’ on a game.  We’ll talk about this in greater detail when football season approaches, but the general idea is to use the power ratings to calculate ‘your’ line on every game and compare these numbers to the actual pointspread.

Power ratings are also useful in moneyline based sports, though obviously the pointspread component is involved.  In a moneyline based sport there’s more of a need for ‘intuition’ on the part of the bettor, but they’re still a very helpful tool.  One simple technique for using power ratings in baseball or hockey is to look for situations where a higher ranked pointspread team is an underdog against a lower ranked opponent.  In a future installment, we’ll talk about evaluating moneylines to determine whether or not a play is a good betting value.

While power ratings are an important tool in the handicapper’s arsenal, its not a good idea to rely on them exclusively.  Obviously, there’s a lot more involved in handicapping a specific matchup than the intrinsic strengths and weaknesses of the teams involved.  Stylistic matchups, scheduling situations, motivation, etc. are all important factors to consider.  In baseball, for example, much depends on the starting pitcher.  A team like Colorado may not be a strong play in most situations, but when Ubaldo Jimenez is on the mound its a different situation entirely.

Perhaps the most effective way to use power ratings is as a tool to quickly and methodically work through a long card of games.  In college basketball season, for example, its almost impossible to evaluate every game on the board in depth when a busy Saturday may have well over 100 contests on the board.  Power ratings enable the bettor to eliminate games where there’s not much line value, and to isolate situations where a more in-depth analysis can reveal a strong wagering opportunity.

We’ll talk about our specific methodology for each individual sport as we get to them, and we’ll start with baseball coming later this week.

Edmonton Oilers at Anaheim Ducks
April 11, 5:05 PM Pacific

Ducks aren’t a bad team–they’ll finish with a winning record regardless of the outcome of this game.  If they played in the East they’d almost certainly be playoff bound.  All of that is of little consolation, of course, and the fact that they’re a fairly decent team that fell short of the postseason in a deep and talented Western Conference may actually work against them in this spot.  When handicapping late season games among non playoff teams it often become a simple question of which side is more motivated.  Edmonton will finish with the league’s worst record but has shown some life down the stretch winning 3 straight and 6 of their last 11 in the sports betting stretch.  Even when they haven’t won they’ve been competitive–only one loss in this 11 game stretch has been by more than one goal.  So what has gotten into the Oilers?  Probably the best motivation that we could ask for–while the Ducks are a decent team that will make a few adjustments in the off season the Oilers need help up and down the lineup.  In other words, there are guys on the team who could be making a case for future employment as a professional hockey player.  There’s likely players on every team in the league in a situation where they’re ‘playing for a job’, but none have as many as Edmonton.  The Ducks have played very listless hockey since they were eliminated from playoff consideration, and on a warm Sunday night in Southern California we don’t see them coming out with a lot of intensity to close out the season against the worst team in the league.  We’ll gladly take the Oilers as a hefty underdog in this spot.

Bet Edmonton +175 over Anaheim

Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns
April 11, 6:05 PM Pacific

Rockets have shown a little life lately despite their playoff elimination, winning and covering three straight and 4 of 5.  This is a tough matchup for them, however, as they’re facing a more talented team with a ton of motivation.  Suns are currently in 5th place, 1/2 game behind fourth place Utah and 1 game behind Dallas and Denver who are tied for second.  Phoenix is off of a road loss at OKC, but have won 13 of their L15 games.  Rockets are playing for the 4th time in 6 days, and fatigue could be a factor against a team that will definitely push the tempo.

Phoenix has been a solid pointspread team at home (22-15 ATS) and as a favorite (31-21 ATS).  They’ve beaten up on the Southwest Division this season, going 11-6 SU/13-4 ATS.  Houston has a losing mark as a road team and as an underdog, and have been a worse investment away from home as the year has progressed–they’ve only covered 8 of their L23 road games.  Suns have covered 7 of the last 10 meetings with Houston and 5 straight.  They’ll have no problem extending a margin here.

Bet Phoenix -9 over Houston

Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers
April 9 4:05 PM Pacific

How’s this for a dramatic set up?  The Flyers currently hold the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and lead the 9th place New York Rangers by 2 points.  Both teams have 2 games remaining–a home and home series against each other.  Rangers are playing better down the stretch having won six of their last 10 games, while the Flyers have lost 7 of 10.  The two teams have split four games this season, and the Rangers have a slight 5-4 advantage against the Flyers on their home ice over the past three years.

Not really interested in a side play on either team–the Rangers clearly have the better form but we don’t want to lay -150 with them in a game with such weighty implications.  At the same time, not a lot of value playing the Flyers with only a small underdog takeback.  So we’ll look to the total, where 3 of the 4 meetings have gone Under this season.  We’ll disregard a December game where the Flyers blitzed the Rangers 6-0 chasing usually dependable goalie Henrik Lundqvist after only one period.  The other three games saw a total of 9 goals scored, or a 3 per game average total.  With so much on the line here, we sure don’t expect a high scoring contest and will play this one Under the total.

Bet Philadelphia/NY Rangers Under 5′ -130

Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers
April 9, 4:05 PM Pacific

We respect the Bucks resilience, and they’ve done an impressive job trying to keep up the intensity following the loss of Andrew Bogut to a season ending arm injury.  Milwaukee has covered 7 straight going 5-2 SU, and with notoriously hard driving coach Scott Skiles calling the shots aren’t a team prone to halfhearted efforts.  Bucks are 50-26 ATS on the year and 26-12 versus the pointspread on the road.  Inexplicably, the Sixers beat the Bucks at home in late March and Milwaukee is 11-3 ATS when revenging a home loss.

Philadelphia, on the other hand, quit caring a long time ago.  They’re among the worst home teams in the NBA with a 12-27 SU/11-27-1 ATS record.  They’ve won only 4 of their L20 games straight up and have covered only 6 of their last 20.  At this point in the season, much of the handicapping process is figuring out which teams will exert a competitive effort and which teams won’t.  In this matchup that’s very obvious and we’ll bet accordingly.

Bet Milwaukee -4 over Philadelphia

St. Louis Cardinals (Brad Penny) at Cincinnati Reds (Bronson Arroyo)
April 8, 9:35 AM Pacific

2010 has started much the same way that 2009 ended, with the Cards looking dominant and the Reds struggling.  St. Louis has experienced little trouble with Cincinnati in the first two games of this series winning 11-6 and 6-3.  Today’s game will match Brad Penny against Bronson Arroyo–both pitchers had a winning record last year but Arroyo’s ERA was better which is likely why this game is priced so competitively.  In our view, however, its an opportunity to take the better team at a nice value price.  Historically, Penny has pitched well against Cincinnati with a 7-2 career mark and a 3.36 ERA.  The Reds’ bullpen has looked horrible in the opening games of the series, so even if Arroyo puts in a few good innings of work there’s a good chance the relief corps will blow it for him.  Cards’ Albert Pujols already has 2 home runs and 4 RBI’s as he looks to be in MVP form.   We’ll take St. Louis to complete the sweep at a nice price.

Bet St. Louis (Penny) -110 over Cincinnati (Arroyo)

Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets
April 8, 7:35 Pacific

The Lakers have had the look of a team biding its time until the playoffs start for awhile now, but they still have some regular season business to take care of.  They still haven’t clinched the conference title despite holding a commanding lead.  L.A. has been off since an embarassing home loss to San Antonio on Sunday, while Denver played last night at Oklahoma City.  Nuggets have won three straight, but they’re simply not the same team without Kenyon Martin and particularly on the defensive end.  They’ve been a disaster against the spread since he’s been out of the lineup with only two pointspread covers in their last 12 games.

This looks to be a potential ’statement’ spot for the defending NBA champs, off of a loss and with a national TV audience on TNT.  Lakers may get Andrew Bynum back here–he’s suggested this game as a potential return from a strained Achilles’ tendon–and should be in a position to take advantage of Denver’s defensive liabilities without Martin in the lineup.  George Karl’s absence from the sidelines as he undergoes treatment for cancer doesn’t help the home team either.  Denver routed the Lakers at home earlier this season, with L.A. winning the next two games at the Staples Center.  Good chance for Kobe and company to regain some of their swagger and lock down the best record in the West as they should win outright here.

Bet Los Angeles Lakers +2′ over Denver

Nashville Predators at Phoenix Coyotes
April 6, 7:05 PM Pacific

Phoenix has been the surprise team of the NHL this season, and the fact that they’re one of only 5 teams with 100+ points borders on amazing.  This is a franchise that was in the news almost exclusively based on their chaotic off ice ownership and financial situation.  For much of the summer, the fact that they’d actually put a team on the ice this season seemed like an afterthought.  The Coyotes put together a team that won with nasty defense and excellent goaltending.  In theory, they could use a ‘proven’ scorer but that notwitstanding they’re perfectly set up for a deep playoff run.

This is a tough motivational spot for the Coyotes, however, as for the past month or so they’d hoped to run down San Jose for their division title and the best overall record in the conference.  The Sharks clinched the division last night, however, so under the NHL’s playoff format the Coyotes can do no better than fourth since the three division winners are seeded 1-3.  Nashville has been in a similar situation, in the same division as the Chicago Blackhawks who have clinched that crown and are trying to catch the Sharks for the conference’s best record.  Preds have been playing excellent hockey, winning 10 of their L13 and could sneak up and knock Phoenix down to 5th.  In any case, we like the value with Nashville and will take them here in what could be a ‘letdown spot’ for the home team.

Bet Nashville +120 over Phoenix