Philadelphia Phillies (Blanton) at Chicago Cubs (Lilly)
July 16, 11:20 AM Pacific

The Phillies looked awful in all phases of the game on Thursday, spotting the Cubs a 12-2 lead before scoring four in the top of the ninth to make the final 12-6 verdict a little more respectable.  After giving up two runs in the top of the first, Ryan Dempster looked strong the rest of the way and the Cubs offense teed off on veteran lefthander Jamie Moyer.  Despite the loss, however, the fundamental dynamics of the situation haven’t changed.  The Cubs are still the Cubs, and they’re still–as always–overvalued at home.  They improved to 21-23 at Wriggly Field with the victory on Thursday, but that’s still a -12.5 unit net loss for the season.  And we’ll bring up the stat that we always mention in Cubs home games simply because its so mind boggling–since 1997, the Cubs have lost -129.4 units at home despite a W/L record 53 games over .500!

It remains to be seen what direction the Phillies take in the second half of the season–they could as easily be out of the playoff hunt by the first of September as they could go on a run and get back into contention.  They definitely have the talent, however, and in this matchup at least are a good value as an underdog.  Neither pitcher in great form, but Ted Lilly looked awful in his last two starts before the break allowing 14 ER.  Joe Blanton has a 2.75 career ERA against Chicago and this looks like a good spot for Philadelphia to atone for their shabby performance yesterday.

Bet Philadelphia (Blanton) +120 over Chicago Cubs (Lilly)

Philadelphia Phillies (Moyer) at Chicago Cubs (Dempster)
July 15, 5:05 PM Pacific

Phillies got a little bit of momentum going before the break, winning 4 straight and 6 of their last 10.  Cubs, on the other hand, are still treading water with a 5-5 mark in their last 10 games and a ho-hum 20-23 record at home. As we’ve discussed in the past, the Cubs are always overvalued at home–this season they’ve lost nearly -14 units for their financial backers at Wriggly Field.  Since 1997, they’re a mind boggling -130 units at home despite a W/L record 52 games over .500!

Jamie Moyer’s YTD numbers aren’t particularly impressive but they never are–he’s the classic ‘junk ball’ pitcher.  Ryan Dempster has a better ERA, but the Cubs have lost 11 of his 18 starts and 5 of 8 at home.  Of particular note is the Phillies historical dominance of the head to head matchup–Philadelphia has won 10 of the last 15 meetings and 5 of 8 in Chicago.  Phillies still have a realistic look at the postseason while Chicago needs a miracle to get back in contention with Cincinnati and St. Louis.  Phillies get the second half of the season off to a good start, and we get a nice underdog price.

Bet Philadelphia (Moyer) +120 over Chicago (Dempster)

San Francisco Giants (Cain) at Washington Nationals (Strasburg)
July 9, 4:05 PM Pacific

The Nationals do have several things to be happy about at this point in the season–for one, they’re nowhere near being the worst team either in the National League or in the Major Leagues.  More significantly, they’ve received an excellent comeback effort from veteran Livan Hernandez who has regained his status as a solid starting pitcher.  The biggest excitement surrounding the team, however, is the arrival of their ‘pitcher of the future’–Steven Strasburg has looked downright dominant at points this season and appears to live up to the considerable hype he received on the road to the majors.

That being said, we’re going to go against him here.  You can’t argue with his solid 2.45 ERA (2.16 at home) and his 53 strikeouts in 36.7 innings of work is no joke.  On the other hand, its important to keep in mind that despite his superlative play that the Nats are just 3-3 in his 6 starts for a -2.1 unit loss.  He’s not been quite as effective in his last three outings, with a record of 0-2 and a 3.12 ERA.  Bottom line–he’s not been receiving a lot of help from his teammates.  In two of his last three starts the Nationals hung a goose egg on offense. No matter how good a pitcher is, a lack of run support is deadly.  Matt Cain is off of a couple of substandard outings himself, but we can’t get past the way that the Giants have dominated the Nationals in head to head play.  San Fran has won 13 of the last 16 meetings between the teams including 6 of 7 in DC.  No matter how good Strasburg is–and we think he’s very good–Washington is still a bad team and we’re getting a nice value playing against them here.

Bet San Francisco (Cain) +135 over Washington (Strasburg)

Cincinnati Reds (Cueto) at Philadelphia Phillies (Kendrick)
July 8, 4:05 PM Pacific

Despite their anemic form during the past month or so the Phillies remain a popular ‘public’ team and that gives us a really nice value in this spot.  The Reds continue to cruise right along, winning 7 of their last 10 while Philadelphia continues to spin their wheels losing 7 of their last 10 games.  Cincinnati has posted solid profits on the road this year with a 22-18 record good for 5.4 units.  Philadelphia’s home record underscores the public’s overvalued perception of the team–they’re 21-17 at home for a -6.2 unit loss.

We’d be all over the Reds at a pick’em price based on the current form of these teams alone but we’re also getting a great pitching matchup.  Johnny Cueto has become a solid presence in the Reds’ starting rotation and over the past couple of weeks may be pitching better than anyone in baseball.  Cueto has allowed a single earned run in his last three starts, and got the victory when these teams played in Cincinnati on 6/28 with 8 innings of 1 run, 6 hit baseball.  He faced Kyle Kendrick in that game as well and the Reds touched him up for 5 ER.  Reds have won 11 of Cueto’s 17 starts this season and with both pitcher and team in exceptional form this is a great value at the price.

Bet Cincinnati (Cueto) -110 over Philadelphia (Kendrick)

CFL TOTALS:

In many ways, handicapping CFL totals is identical to handicapping NFL totals.  Teams that favor the rushing game and keep the clock moving, or strong defensive teams are more likely to produce ‘Under’ results.  Teams that throw on almost every down or turn the ball over alot are likely to produce ‘Overs’.   Most of the CFL specific rules don’t appear to have a significant impact on either inflating or deflating final scores.  The CFL ‘three downs’ for offensive teams basically evens out–it results in more possession changes (which in theory should increase scoring) but also in fewer sustained drives (which theoretically decreases scoring).  The presence of a ’single’ also has minimal if any impact on final scores–this seems slightly counterintuitive since it’s another way for teams to score but it seldom has a measurable impact on totals.  Teams seldom ‘try’ to make a single–since many come from missed field goal attempts teams would much rather get the three points for making the attempt rather than settle for one.

WEATHER:

Weather is a significant consideration for NFL totals handicappers, but surprisingly its not a major factor for most of the CFL season.  Occasionally there will be games played in the rain or in strong winds, but the league’s July to October season manages to avoid the worst winter weather.  That being said, bad weather is a very common occurrence late in the season and into the Grey Cup playoffs.  A diligent handicapper considers the weather in any outdoor sport regardless of the time of year, but in CFL football it doesn’t have much influence on the game until the latter part of the season.

THE MOST IMPORTANT THING TO REMEMBER:

The most important thing to remember about CFL totals doesn’t involve statistics or trends–it’s a function of how the game is perceived outside of Canada and how that perception influences the linesmaking process.  The casual sports betting enthusiast, particularly in the United States, often has an incorrect impression of the CFL game.  Much of that is due to the minimal coverage the league receives in the mainstream US sports media, and how few games have been shown on US TV over the years.

It’s amazing that one game could color the perception of the sport for years to come, but with the CFL that’s not far from the truth.  The 84th Grey Cup in 1996 between Toronto and Edmonton was televised on ESPN in the United States and may very well have had the biggest American audience for a CFL TV broadcast in history.  This was the famous ‘Snow Bowl’ that was played in a heavy snowstorm in Hamilton, Ontario and featured then Toronto Argonaut Doug Flutie, a familiar face to US fans.  The back and forth game was a very entertaining spectacle, and when it was over Toronto emerged victorious by a 43-37 score.

The game was the second highest scoring Grey Cup in history (Saskatchewan beat Hamilton 43-40 in 1989) but without the context provided by regular coverage of the CFL, many casual US sports fans assumed that it was a typical day of Canadian Football.  To this day, many football fans who don’t see the CFL regularly think that its essentially an outdoor version of Arena Football with similarly inflated scorelines.

That couldn’t be further from the truth, but since sportsbooks set lines to reflect public perception the result has been that the average CFL total is often shaded several points *higher* than it likely should be.  Since the ‘public’ likes to play ‘Overs’ anyway and since so much of the betting world has an incorrect perception of the nature of the CFL game more often than not the best value position is on the ‘Under’.

Now, this isn’t to say that you should blindly play the ‘Under’ on every CFL game or that the ‘Over’ is never the right side.  In fact, my first CFL play of the season this year was a winning ‘Over’ on the opening game between Montreal and Saskatchewan.  What is important is to understand the true nature of how the CFL game works and that in many respects its just like the NFL in terms of how the serious bettor approaches handicapping it.  On the other hand, since CFL totals are often shaded higher than the statistical data justifies there are numerous good opportunities to play ‘Under’ the total during the course of the season.

San Diego Padres (Richard) at Washington Nationals (Hernandez)
July 6, 4:05 PM Pacific

While its not been a very good season for the Washington Nationals, there have been at least two bright spots.  One is the virtuosity of rookie pitcher Stephen Strasburg, who has shown quite a few moments of utter brilliance just six games into his major league career.  Another has been the career revival of Livan Hernandez.  The 35 year old right hander checks in with a 6-4 record and a solid 2.98 ERA.  Aside from that, Washington has been a dismal team this season and enter Tuesday’s game against San Diego having lost 7 of their last 10.  They have shown a small profit at home (22-18 +4.5 units) but that pales in comparison to the Padres road record of 22-14 +14 units.

For whatever reason, the Padres still aren’t getting the respect they deserve from linesmakers and the sports betting public.  That, and the solid performance of Hernandez this season, gives us an opportunity to take San Diego at a very reasonable ‘pick’em’ price.  Clayton Richard gets the assignment for the Padres today, and his ERA is even better than Hernandez’s with a 2.74 ERA overall and a 2.29 mark on the road.  San Diego is in good form of late, having won 7 of their last 10 and we’ll gladly back them at the price against a much weaker team.

Bet San Diego (Richard) -110 over Washington (Hernandez)

Holland vs. Uruguay
July 6, 11:30 AM Pacific

Uruguay has been a very pleasant surprise for soccer betting enthusiasts during this World Cup.  After making it through the group stage without giving up a goal they advanced to this stage by beating South Korea 2-1 and outlasting Ghana on penalty kicks after a 1-1 tie in regulation and added time.  With all due respect to Uruguay, they benefited greatly from their Group A seeding which included the overmatched South Africans, the erratic Mexico team and the dysfunctional French side.  They also had the easiest path through the knockout stage but despite the relatively easy level of opposition needed to get a number of breaks to advance to the semifinals.

The biggest concern about Holland prior to the 2010 World Cup was their ability to play strong defense, but the backline has performed well.  Holland has quietly been taking care of business throughout the competition, winning all three Group E matchups and defeating Slovakia and Brazil in the knockout stage.  They’re definitely a more complete team than Uruguay and will have another significant advantage in this matchup.  Uruguay will be seriously shorthanded due to injuries and suspensions.  Luis Suarez is their best offensive player, and he’s suspended for the red card he received for an intentional hand ball near the end of overtime against Ghana.  On the defensive end, Uruguay will be without arguably their two best defenders– Jorge Fucile received his second yellow card against Ghana and is also suspended for this game while Diego Lugano is out with an injury.

Holland’s got a deep and versatile offense, and a highly underrated defense.  They would have been the play in this matchup even if Uruguay had come in at full strength but given their personnel issues a play on the Dutch team is even stronger.

Bet Holland -1/2 -160 over Uruguay

Atlanta Braves (Lowe) at Philadelphia Phillies (Halladay)
July 5, 4:05 PM Pacific

Philadelphia has shown a few signs of making a run at the division leaders, but they can’t quite seem to turn the corner and become competitive.  They’ll enter this contest having lost 6 of their last 10 games and are 5 games back of the first place Braves.  Atlanta has been fairly consistent of late, but they’re still a much better team at home (30-10) than on the road (18-24).  The Phillies, however, are usually overpriced at home–their record is 20-15 but that’s cost backers -4.8 units.

Roy Halladay gets the start for Philadelphia here, and while he’s put up excellent numbers all season (2.42 ERA) the Phillies are only 9-8 in his starts for a loss of -5.4 units.  They’re 4-4 in his home assignments for a loss of -4.7 units.  Derek Lowe has had his ups and downs this year, but Atlanta has won 10 of his 17 starts and are 4-4 in his road starts netting a small profit in both situations.  Overall, the head to head series has been very even with the Braves winning 5 of 9 games this year.  They’ve won 10 of the last 21 in Philly, good for a +3.5 unit profit.  Since we’re getting such an attractive price with the road team we’ll back Atlanta which has been playing better, more consistent baseball all season long.

Bet Atlanta (Lowe) +155 over Philadelphia (Halladay)

Milwaukee Brewers (Gallardo) at St. Louis Cardinals (Wainwright)
July 4, 11:15 AM Pacific

We haven’t had many good opportunities to use the Milwaukee Brewers this year–in fact, they were a team that we looked to play against in the early part of the season particularly at home.  They’ve gone on a nice run of late, however, and we’ve got a couple of good reasons to back the Brew Crew in their July 4th game against the Cardinals at St. Louis.  For whatever reason, Milwaukee has dominated the Cards in head to head play in St. Louis recently.  The Brewers have won 16 of the last 24 games played in the Gateway City.

Good pitching matchup in this game, with Adam Wainwright getting the start for St. Louis against the Brewers Yovani Gallardo.  The Cards are a perfect 8-0 in Wainwright’s home starts and he’s got an exceptional 1.49 ERA in those games.  Gallardo has been a very pleasant surprise for the Brewers this year with a 2.56 ERA and a 2.25 mark on the road.  With the Brewers’ success in St. Louis during the past few years we’ll take Milwaukee with their very talented righthander Gallardo on the mount at an attractive underdog price here.

Bet Milwaukee (Gallardo) +140 over St. Louis (Wainwright)

Cincinnati Reds (Leake) +110 over Chicago Cubs (Lilly)
July 4, 11:20 AM Pacific

One of our favorite baseball handicapping concepts is simply going against the Chicago Cubs at home whenever we get the opportunity to take a decent opponent at an underdog price.  That’s exactly what we’ve got today as the 1st place Reds go for the series victory in this afternoon game at Wrigley Field.  Betting the Cubs at home is a worse investment than Enron–Chicago is an acceptable 20-22 at home this season but that’s translated to a -12.2 unit loss for their backers.  If you’d bet the Cubs in every home game since 1997, you’d have likely been out of action a long time ago as Chicago has lost an incredible -129.2 units in that stretch despite a W/L record fifty games over .500.  No matter how you slice it, the Cubs are an overvalued property at home.

We’re even getting a favorable pitching matchup–Ted Lilly has looked sharp in his last two starts allowing only a single earned run in each.  The problem is that they were against a couple of weak hitting teams in Pittsburgh and Seattle, and now he’s facing a very good offense with a winning record against southpaws.  Mike Leake has been sensational in his five road starts this year with a 1.64 ERA.  We’re getting the better team in a favorable pitching matchup as an underdog, and that’s a perfect example of value handicapping.

Bet Cincinnati Reds (Leake) +110 over Chicago Cubs (Lilly)