College Football Free Picks: Outback Bowl

Saturday, January 2nd, 2010 at 6:46 pm

The college football betting season starts to wind down with five bowl games on Saturday serving as a preface for the ‘big’ bowls leading up to Thursday’s BCS Championship game. Today’s bowl games are an odd assortment of matchups that aren’t quite as meaningless as the mid December bowls, but clearly lack the significance of the New Year’s Day games. We’ve got a good sportsbook position in the Outback Bowl game between South Carolina and Connecticut:

Outback Bowl: South Carolina vs. Connecticut
January 2, 11:00 AM Pacific

I’ve been scratching my head over this line move since it opened. South Carolina opened as a -6 favorite and have been bet down to -3′. There are at least a couple of possible explanations. The UConn football program had to deal with the tragic stabbing death of Jasper Howard during midseason, and the betting public may see some sort of motivational factor as the Huskies dedicate this game to his memory. Also a consideration may be the team’s pointspread performance as UConn went 9-2 ATS this season including a perfect 6-0 mark as an underdog. The teams that were favored against Connecticut were Notre Dame, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Louisville, Baylor and North Carolina. Three of those teams weren’t invited to a bowl game, and the three that were went 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS.

On a theoretical level, we’ll gladly take the SEC vs. the Big East in any hypothetical matchup. South Carolina may have been over reliant on the pass this year, but with the development of Steven Garcia at QB and the depth the Gamecocks have at wide receiver its hard to blame them. Howard’s loss not only impacted UConn on a personal level but a tactical one as well: he was the best player on defense and the Huskies struggled in his absence to stop anyone. For the year, they finished 104th in passing efficiency defense and had only one interception following Howard’s death. That’s a bad matchup against the South Carolina passing game. They’ll also be without linebacker Greg Lloyd here, meaning a less aggressive pass rush. Statistically, the Gamecocks’ defense was down from recent years but that was due more to injuries and lack of depth than a deficiency in front line talent. They’ll be well rested here and won’t face anything on offense that they didn’t see during the SEC conference slate. Gamecocks win by a TD or more and cover the pointspread.

Bet South Carolina +3′ over Connecticut

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