Uncle Mo has been recuperating at WinStar Farms since May and resumed jogging on June 24th. Pletcher didn’t go into to many details when asked how Uncle Mo was doing answering simply ““Excellent so far”. He also declined to characterize Mo’s recovery as being ahead of schedule because “we didn’t really have a schedule.”

Owner Mike Repole has said that best case scenario would be a return for Uncle Mo in the Grade 1 King’s Bishop at Saratoga on August 27. That could be unreasonable, however, given the limited time available to get Mo back in racing shape and ready to face such a high level of competition. Neither Repole or Pletcher has divulged a ‘Plan B’ for Mo’s return to competition but obviously the hope is that he’ll be ready in time for the big potential payday in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Another of Pletcher’s highly touted three year olds that was sidelined with injury is also returning to his training stable. Filly R Heat Lightning–considered one of the favorites for the Kentucky Oaks before being sidelined with a bone chip in her knee–is also returning to Saratoga this week. R Heat Lightning had surgery to remove the bone chip and has been recuperating at WinStar Farms as well. She won the Davona Dale and Gulfstream Park Oaks by a combined 15 1/2 lengths before missing the Kentucky Oaks with the knee ailment.

R Heat Lightning will be returning to training with hopes of getting her back into competition later this summer but according to Pletcher there are no plans currently to race her at the Saratoga meet. Like Uncle Mo, the longterm goal is to get her into shape for Breeders’ Cup competition.

Zito issued this statement on his colt and its future:

“Dialed In will be out of training for awhile. He has a chip in the right knee. We noticed there was something different with the knee. Dr. Migliacci took some pictures, X-rays, on the 25th of May, which was after the Preakness and there was no problem, but there is now.”

“Dr. Bramlage will do the surgery next week and he will be back in training soon. Bob LaPenta and I, and all my staff, were looking forward to the Travers. Unfortunately, that will not happen. I am grateful that he was the favorite in the Kentucky Derby and ran in the Preakness for the $5 million bonus. But I am disappointed, along with Bob, that he did not get a fair chance in those races. Hopefully as a 4-year-old he will get back to where he belongs.”

Dialed In’s biggest victory to date was in the Florida Derby and he also won the Holy Bull Stakes. He is by Mineshaft out of the Storm Cat mare Miss Doolittle and has a record of 3-1-0 in six career starts with earnings of $939,206. He finished eighth in the Kentucky Derby as the 5-1 post time favorite and then fourth in the Preakness. The original plan for Dialed In was a return to action at the Travers held August 27 at Saratoga. This obviously won’t be the case and represents another defection for what is known as the ‘Mid Summer Derby’. Earlier this month the Travers field lost Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom. The Travers Stakes was first run in 1864 and is the oldest stakes race in North America. It is now a Grade 1 event for three year olds run over a mile and a quarter.

Six barns were damaged severely as to be unusable but the main grandstand and the ‘Twin Spires’ were unharmed. The best news was that there were no deaths or injuries to humans or animals, something that Churchill Downs spokesman John Asher portrayed as miraculous:

“Considering the damage, which is extensive, it is amazing — borderline miraculous — that there were no injuries to either humans or horses.”

The EF-2 tornado was part of a line of powerful thunderstorms that struck the Louisville area on Wednesday afternoon. The word across the city was that while there was some physical damage and downed powerlines there were no reported injuries or deaths. This isn’t the first time that Churchill Downs was hit by a tornado–it happened previously in 1928.

Despite the damage to the barns there is no expectation of disruption in racing or training. Currently there are enough vacant stalls in other barns to accommodate any horses that need to be moved from the damaged structures. According to track spokesman Asher, between 75 and 100 horses had to be evacuated to other stalls. On Thursday, connections for the evacuated horses worked to line up more permanant boarding either at the track or at nearby Trackside or Keeneland.

Churchill Downs did catch a break with Friday’s racing scheduled for a nighttime start. This gives workers the entire day to make sure the facility is safe for both the racing public and the equine athletes. There are also some track workers that boarded in the damaged barns that need to be moved, but Asher didn’t anticipate any problem with this.

Assuming that all of the necessary logistical issues are dealt with and Friday night’s card is able to go on as planned, post time for the first race will be at 3 PM Pacific/6 PM Eastern with a total of 11 races on tap for the session.

The likely return of Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness runner up Animal Kingdom to run in the Belmont appeared to have some bearing on the decision. Romans spoke of the developing rivalry between Shackleford and Animal Kingdom:

“I think it would be great if we could develop a little bit of a rivalry in the 3-year-old division. I think these 3-year-olds are better than most people realize.”

Romans briefly considered flying Shackleford directly to Belmont Park but instead returned him to his home at Churchill Downs. He said this would give him the opportunity to make a more informed decision on Shackleford’s Belmont chances:

“I want to go over him a couple of days there and then make a decision.”

The field for the Belmont Stakes is already starting to shape up. In addition to Shackleford and Animal Kingdom, the expectation is that Mucho Macho Man will also enter the field. Kentucky Derby second place finisher Nehro skipped the Preakness but is expected to be brought back for the Belmont. 5th place Kentucky Derby finisher Master of Hounds and sixth place finisher Sanitiva also bypassed the Preakness but are being considered for the Belmont start. In addition, there are a group of horses who didn’t race in either Triple Crown event being pointed toward the Belmont–Peter Pan winner Alternation and Prime Cut are the most notable in this category.

The Grade 1 Belmont Stakes is the final leg of the Triple Crown and will be run over a dirt track at 1 1/2 miles at Belmont Park in New York. This is the 143rd running of the race which offers a purse of $1 million this year with $600,000 going to the winner. The race will be broadcast live in the United States on NBC with extensive coverage leading up to the event on TVG and HRTV.

He originally showed signs of an injury after the Dixie on Saturday–he walked to and from the winner’s circle in good order but once he arrived at the test barn he started to show signs of lameness. He was taken by van back to his stall and X-rays taken on Sunday morning didn’t immediately show any significant issue. The assumption at the time was that he’d suffered a foot bruise and flew back to Churchill Downs on Sunday morning.

Further X-rays were taken upon his arrival back in Louisville and at that point the sesamoid injury was discovered. According to Romans, the horse “broke off the top part of his outside sesamoid”. He’ll now be retired to stud and while his racing career is over there are no signs that the injury will cause any more serious problems.

Jerry Crawford, managing partner for the syndicate that owns Paddy O’ Prado released this statement:

“We are very disappointed today to see Paddy’s career end so suddenly. This is what is best for Paddy. He will make a full recovery and embark on the next stage of his career.”

Stud plans have yet to be finalized, but according to Crawford they’ve had plenty of interest. After his three year old campaign his connections considered putting him out to stud immediately, but eventually decided to keep him in training. Crawford says that there are no less than “18 prospective suitors” for Paddy O’ Prado’s stud services.

The Dixie Stakes was the first start for Paddy O’ Prado since his 5th place finish in the 2010 Breeder’s Cup Classic. He also finished third in the Kentucky Derby but was clearly at his best on turf courses.

Here are the Preakness odds as of 9:30 AM Pacific:

1. Astrology, 14-1
2. Norman Asbjornson, 30-1
3. King Congie, 20-1
4. Flashpoint, 20-1
5. Shackleford, 11-1
6. Sway Away, 12-1
7. Midnight Interlude, 11-1
8. Dance City, 10-1
9. Mucho Macho Man, 9-2
10. Dialed In, 4-1
11. Animal Kingdom, 3-1
12. Isn’t He Perfect, 22-1
13. Concealed Identity, 23-1
14. Mr. Commons, 40-1

The Grade 1, $1,000,000 will be contested over a distance of 1 1/16 miles. All eyes are on Animal Kingdom since a win here would keep him on track to try and complete horse racing’s elusive Triple Crown at Belmont Park in June. There hasn’t been a Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978, a span of 33 years.

Animal Kingdom didn’t arrive at Pimlico until 3:45 AM Pacific/6:45 AM Eastern Saturday morning. He left his stall at the Fair Hill Training Center at 2:30 AM Pacific/5:30 AM Eastern for the short trip down I-95 to Baltimore. Animal Kingdom had a one car police escort for his trip and upon arrival took a quick walk around the barn area before bedding down in stall 40–the one traditionally reserved for the Kentucky Derby winner.

There had been some concern about the possibility for bad weather on Preakness Saturday due to rain earlier in the week and the frequent thunderstorms this time of year but that shouldn’t be a problem. It looks to be a perfect day for racing and the dirt track should be in great shape for the Preakness. The turf course may be a little softer than many horses would like but still should be in reasonably good shape for those events, headlined by the ‘warm up’ for the Preakness, the Dixie Stakes. The Dixie is expected to be a showcase race for one of last year’s top three year olds, Paddy O’ Prado who is expected to dominate over an uninspired group of competitors.

Aside from a stretch in the early 1980′s when ‘new shooters’ won three of four Preakness races between 1980 and 1983, horses that skipped the Kentucky Derby haven’t fared particularly well. Since 1983 there have only been three ‘new shooters’ to win the Preakness–most recently in 2009 when Rachel Alexandra turned the feat. In 2006, Bernardini won the Preakness without starting in the Kentucky Derby as did Red Bullet in 2000. Since 1919, only nineteen ‘new shooters’ have won the Preakness Stakes:

2009 Rachel Alexandra
2006 Bernardini
2000 Red Bullet
1983 Deputed Testamony
1982 Aloma’s Ruler
1980 Codex
1972 Bee Bee Bee
1962 Greek Money
1951 Bold
1945 Polynesian
1942 Alsab
1934 High Quest
1929 Dr. Freeland
1928 Victorian
1925 Coventry
1924 Nellie Morse
1922 Pillory
1921 Broomspun
1920 Man o’ War

We examined one of the ‘new shooters’–Astrology–in detail in a previous post. An intriguing entrant that has drawn the attention of many serious horse players is King Congie. Robbie Alberado will ride King Congie and that assignment adds to the drama–Alberado was scheduled to ride Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom until he suffered a spill and was replaced. There are some striking similarities between Animal Kingdom and King Congie–in fact, King Congie is a synthetic/turf specialist trying to make the transition to dirt in the same way that Animal Kingdom did in the Kentucky Derby. King Congie was 20-1 on the morning line. For players interested in speed horses, Dance City and Flashpoint should help set the pace that was absent in the Kentucky Derby. The shorter distance at Pimlico for the Preakness could also help a Kentucky Derby veteran–Shackleford–who set the pace at Churchill Downs before tiring late. The downside to backing a speed horse should be obvious–in many ways a brisk pace in the Preakness will set the race up better for the favorites Animal Kingdom and Dialed In than they had in the Kentucky Derby.

Astrology will start from the rail and was priced at 15-1 on the ‘morning line’. He’s since received nominal betting interest and as of Friday afternoon had dropped to 13-1. Had Asmussen had chosen to do so, Astrology could have competed in the Kentucky Derby–he had enough graded stakes winnings to do so–but a concern about his lack of work kept them from ‘pulling the trigger’ on the race. Astrology had only one race in six months prior to the Derby, with his last outging being a credible effort in tough conditions at Aqueduct in the Jerome. Astrology hit his head on the gate in the start but ended up finishing second on a sloppy track.

It’s not unprecedented for a horse that didn’t run in the Derby to win the Preakness–it’s been done three times since 2000, most recently by super filly Rachel Alexandra in 2009. Trainer Asmussen thinks that Astrology will be a contender on Saturday:

“He shows up in a lot of the players’ form, he’s kept a high level of competition. His not being in the Derby is more surprising than his being in the Preakness.”

A son of AP Indy, Astrology’s three year old campaign got off to a rough start when he missed some training time over the winter due to illness. He did not make his 3-year-old debut until the Sunland Derby on March 27, when he appeared to tire late but held on to finish second behind Twice the Appeal.

Jockey Mike Smith is glad to have the Jerome behind him:

“It’s the kind of race where I look forward to the next one.”

Asmussen added:

“The Jerome was an ideal second start and felt like it was a bridge from where we were to where I wanted to be.”

Asmussen won the Preakness in 2003 with Kentucky Derby third place finisher Curlin.

The fact that Animal Kingdom was priced so high at the Derby and went on to win is far from unprecedented. In 2009, Mine That Bird won by 6 lengths at 50-1. Giacomo won the 2005 Derby at 50-1 and Charismatic won the 1999 ‘Run For The Roses’ as a 31-1 choice. All went on to be priced at much shorter odds in the Preakness–Mine That Bird and Giacomo at 6-1 and Charismatic at 8-1. None were considered ‘the horse to beat’ coming off their Derby victory the way that Animal Kingdom is.

There are still skeptics out there, but they are shrinking in number. Objectively, its hard to find fault with Animal Kingdom’s dirt track debut at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Derby–he adapted to a slow pace and pulled away late for a convincing 2 3/4 length victory. Trainer Motion suggests that Animal Kingdom emerged from the Derby none the worse for wear:

“He’s really in great form. Honest to God, he hasn’t missed a meal throughout all this.”

The addition of speed horses Dance City and Flashpoint to the Preakness field should make for a faster pace, but Motion thinks that’s to Animal Kingdom’s benefit:

“I can only imagine the pace is probably an advantage to him. I don’t know why it would hurt him. It’ll be maybe a truer run race possibly. I think there’ll be an honest pace on Saturday.”

Motion does have reservations about bringing Animal Kingdom back on two days rests and concedes that the strong effort in the Kentucky Derby could have taken a lot out of him:

“I normally don’t do this, but he’s a horse who handles it, which makes my life easier. It’s a matter of how much the Derby took out of him. He ran the biggest race of his life in the Kentucky Derby. I do think he’s an extraordinary animal. He seemed to win the Derby relatively easily.”

Ultimately, Motion suggests that the best is yet to come for Animal Kingdom:

“I’m not sure we’ve seen the best of him. Whether or not we’ll see the best of him or more of him this Saturday I don’t know. I’m thrilled with how he’s doing. Visually he didn’t have a hard race in the Derby.”

Animal Kingdom will start from post position 11 with jockey John Velazquez aboard.

At the other end of the spectrum, Santa Anita Derby third place finisher Mr. Commons is 45-1. If he stays at that price until posttime he’d be the longest priced Preakness entrant since 2004 when Little Math Man was priced at 45-1 and Song of the Sword at 51-1. Mr. Commons is trained by John Sherriffs who has an impressive resume at getting results from longshots–he guided Giacomo to a Kentucky Derby victory in 2005 at odds of 50-1.

Some clues about how the Saturday betting would go can be found in the wagering for the multi-day Black Eyed Susan/Preakness double. $696,530 was bet into this pool with Animal Kingdom an overwhelming favorite. Second choice in the Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness double is Dialed In followed by Mucho Macho Man and Sway Away.

Some racing observers have suggested that the absence of the Kentucky Derby winner at Pimlico this week has muted some of the enthusiasm surrounding the race. Animal Kingdom is based in Northeast Maryland and won’t ship in to Pimlico until Saturday morning. Even Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert–a five time Preakness winner–shares this view:

“It takes away from the buzz here. You’ve got to have the Derby winner here. Everybody wants to see the Derby winner. Even I want to see the Derby winner up close and personal. They should all be here. They need to have him here.“

Should Animal Kingdom win the Preakness there will be plenty of ‘buzz’ for the Belmont Stakes as he’d be trying to become the first Triple Crown winer since Affirmed in 1978.

Here are the current Preakness betting odds. The figure in parenthesis are the ‘will pays’ for the Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness double.

1. Astrology (102.20), 13-to-1
2. Norman Asbjornson ($558.30), 30-to-1
3. King Congie ($180.40), 21-to-1
4. Flashpoint ($165.80), 24-to-1
5. Shackleford ($120.60), 12-to-1
6. Sway Away ($49.80), 14-to-1
7. Midnight Interlude ($122.20), 9-to-1
8. Dance City ($71), 10-to-1
9. Mucho Macho Man ($49), 6-to-1
10. Dialed In ($35), 3-to-1
11. Animal Kingdom ($21), 3-to-1
12. Isn’t He Perfect ($917.60), 23-to-1
13. Concealed Identity ($483), 20-to-1
14. Mr. Commons ($231.20), 45-to-1