San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals
Tuesday, May 15 2012 10:10 AM Pacific

The Nationals are huge home favorites in this game as they are every time that the phenomenal Steven Strasburg takes the mound. Strasburg has come back from ‘Tommy John’ elbow surgery looking better than ever and is likely the favorite for the NL Cy Young award at this point. Strasburg sports a 1.64 ERA and has rung up 54 strikeouts on the season against just 10 walks. If there’s a rap on Strasburg–and this one isn’t really his fault–is that he doesn’t go deep into games averaging just over 6 innings per assignment. That’s because the Nationals have him on a strict pitch count at this stage of his rehab as to prevent overdue strain on his rebuilt elbow.

San Diego has struggled mightily this season and especially on the road where they’re 3-10. They’ve received a relatively decent effort from their pitching staff but their offense has been lacking. This notwithstanding, they’ve done better against RHP than in any other situation and have posted a respectable 3.7 runs per game. Washington’s offense hasn’t been overly productive in the early stages of the season either, but they are starting to show a little more life–the Nats have averaged 4 runs per game in the last week of action so it could be that their bats are starting to wake up as the weather gets warmer.

No real interest in laying the big price on Strasburg, primarily due to the frequent struggles of the Nationals bullpen. The Washington relievers have a 3.71 ERA overall and 6 blown saves to their credit. Instead, we’ll look to play against public perception and play this game Over the extremely low total of 6. Despite his impressive numbers, 3 of 6 Straburg starts this year have gone Over the total including 2 of 3 at home. Factor the so so numbers of Padres’ starter Anthony Bass into the mix and we like our chances of getting enough runs across the plate to make this play work.

Bet Washington/San Diego Over 6 -110

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
May 4, 2012 4:05 PM Pacific

How things change. The Philadelphia Phillies travel to Washington DC to take on the Nationals and the betting line on this game is so strange as to justify a second look. At their best–and at the Nationals’ nadir–it wouldn’t have been surprising to see the Phillies posted as a prohibitive favorite in this matchup. The shoe is on the other foot this time, however, and thanks to what on paper is a huge pitching mismatch the Nationals are a -200 home favorite.

We’ll get into the pitching mismatch shortly. The Phillies have epitomized ‘mediocre’ this season going 13-13 overall, 8-8 on the road and 5-5 at home. The lines are starting to catch up with their drop in form but they’ve still lost money for bettors in virtually all settings this season. By contrast, the Nationals are leading the NL East thanks in large part to a dominating home field advantage. Washington has tread water on the road going 6-6 but have posted a 10-3 +6.1 unit mark at home.

And there may not be a more lopsided pitching matchup this season–Philadelphia will go with struggling Kyle Kendrick who has bounced between the starting rotation and the bullpen. In two starts this season he’s been hit hard, losing both and posting a 9.00 ERA. He’s done marginally better in relief and has a 6.59 ERA overall. He was pummelled mercilessly in his only road appearance this season–an early season start at Arizona and that is reflected in a 21.00 road ERA.

In the Nationals’ corner is the phenomenal Stephen Strasburg. Heading into the season there was concern if he could regain his old form after ‘Tommy John’ surgery. The fact that he’s allowed 4 ER in 5 starts while striking out 36 strongly suggests that he has. What’s frightening, of course, is that he might actually get *better* if he’s still a few percentage points short of 100%. Strasburg was on a tight pitch count early in the season and the Nats are still careful with him but he’s on a slightly longer rope now. He’s only 2-0 this season due to not going deep in many games, but his innings per game average is up to almost 6 1/2 innings per start. The Nats also blew the last game he started, losing 4-3 at Los Angeles. All Strasburg contributed was 7 innings of 5 hit baseball, allowing 1 ER and striking out 9 while not allowing a walk.

Bet Washington Nationals (Strasburg) -200 over Philadelphia Phillies (Kendrick)

Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs
May 4, 2012 11:20 AM Pacific

Year in and year out there’s no better way to make money betting on baseball than by doing one simple thing–bet against the Chicago Cubs whenever they take the field at home. For whatever reason and despite years and years of mounting losses the public still loves to back the home team at Wrigley Field. That keeps prices on their opponents reasonable and short of knocking over an ATM machine there’s not a more reliable way to put money in your pocket. The denial of ‘square’ bettors in this regard is amazing. It takes a prolonged losing streak for the Cubs to start being accurately valued at home. Even if that happens just a few wins in the books (such as their 2-1 series win over St. Louis last weekend) and the prices once again become reasonable.

Here’s the reality of the Chicago Cubs record at Wrigley Field: This year–and despite their winning series referenced above–they’re 5-8 -2.4 units at home. Since the start of the 2010 MLB season they’ve lost -30.3 units at Wrigley Field. And what if you’d bet against the Cubs at home for a longer period–say the start of the 1997 season? Glad you asked–since 1997 the Cubs have a home record 39 games over .500. That should be profitable, right? Guess again–that’s good for a whopping -147.4 units down the toilet. Conversely, had you been fading the Cubs in those games you’ve put a hefty profit into the bankroll.

And this isn’t a particularly favorable matchup for the Cubs. The Dodgers playing great baseball this year and putting up good numbers on offense and defense. LA starter Chad Billingsley has a tidy 2.64 ERA and his teammates shouldn’t have any trouble against Cubs’ LHP Paul Maholm. Maholm enters this contest with a bloated 6.20 ERA and faces a Los Angeles team that has posted a 7-4 record against southpaws this season.

Bet Los Angeles Dodgers (Billingsley) -130 over Chicago Cubs (Maholm)

This is a very thorny issue in Miami due to their large Cuban-American population. The Marlins are trying to gain some traction in the South Florida sports scene complete with a new stadium and new logo. Having their new manager offend a significant part of their fanbase–and especially a vocal and well connected one–wasn’t part of the plan.

The Marlins had a prepared statement announcing the suspension:

“The Marlins acknowledge the seriousness of the comments attributed to Guillen. The pain and suffering caused by Fidel Castro cannot be minimized especially in a community filled with victims of the dictatorship.”

Guillen, who is Venezuelan, spoke to the fans and media first in Spanish, then in English. His comments in Spanish (translated below) were aimed directly at the Cuban American community:

“I feel like I betrayed my Latin community. I am here to say I am sorry with my heart in my hands and I want to say I’m sorry to all those people who are hurt indirectly or directly.”

“I’m sorry for what I said and for putting people in a position they don’t need to be in. And for all the Cuban families, I’m sorry. I hope that when I get out of here, they will understand who Ozzie Guillen is. How I feel for them. And how I feel about the Fidel Castro dictatorship. I’m here to face you, person to person. It’s going to be a very difficult time for me.”

MLB Commissioner Bud Selig had the following statement:

“Guillen’s remarks, which were offensive to an important part of the Miami community and others throughout the world, have no place in our game.”

Selig didn’t mention the part where he sat with Castro during the Baltimore Orioles’ trip to Cuba in 1999.

Guillen’s mea culpa was that he was thinking in Spanish and speaking in English when he said ‘I love Fidel Castro’ in reference to his ability to maintain power for so long:

“The interpretation didn’t come out as I wanted. I was thinking in Spanish and I said the wrong thing in English.”

“Everybody in the world hates Fidel Castro, including myself. I was surprised that he’s still in power. That’s what I was trying to say to the journalist. And that’s the first thing that came out of my mouth. I admit it. It was the wrong words.”

The 40-year-old slugger is nearing the end of a lengthy and very productive career. In 21 seasons, he’s compiled a .277 average and 1662 RBI. Injuries have slowed him in recent years and limited him to 64 games so far in 2011. Let the debate begin as to whether his stats are Hall of Fame worthy.

Thome has one of baseball’s best reputations. He’s a clean-cut professional who goes about his business with little fanfare. You’d be hard pressed to find anyone in the game with a bad word to say about him. In an era beset by steroid abuse and numerous allegations, Thome stood out for never being linked to performance enhancing drugs.

He was a consistent power hitter for two decades, having first hit 40 home runs in 1997 and most recently in 2006. Some pundits will penalize him for playing during the steroid era and never winning a World Series or MVP, but it’s hard to ignore his gaudy numbers and longevity.

He was a five-time All-Star, led the National League in homers in 2003, was named the American League Comeback Player of the Year in 2006 and oh by the way, hit 600 dingers.

On paper, he seems like a surefire Hall of Famer. However, baseball voters can be very critical in their evaluation. Reaching 600 probably sealed his entry, although he might not be a first ballot invite.

With fellow 600 Club members Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa and Alex Rodriguez tangled in webs of controversy, Thome represents the antithesis. Bottom line: he belongs in the Hall of Fame.

Source: MLB.com

Marquis stayed in the game for an inning before dropping to one knee in obvious discomfort.

“I thought it was just tightness from a bruise,” Marquis said. “The pain was enough I could deal with to stay out there. I just felt something pop and (team physician Dr. Michael Lee) said it completed the break.”

Marquis was brought to the Diamondbacks in a trade deadline deal with the Nationals. He was supposed to help fill out a starting rotation led by Cy Young candidate Ian Kennedy. In three starts, Marquis is 0-1 with a 9.53 ERA. Overall on the season, he is 8-6 with a 4.43 ERA.

The 32-year-old veteran has made the rounds in his 12 major league seasons. His best season came in 2004 with St. Louis when he as 15-7 with a 3.71 ERA. Two years later he was a member of the Cardinals World Series winning team. He’s played for six franchises and compiled a 104-98 career record.

Arizona has been on a tear since the All-Star break. On July 15th they were 49-44, 4.5 games behind the Giants. They now sit in first place at 68-53, winners of six straight and two games ahead of those same Giants. Tonight they begin a three-game road set with the dominant Phillies, who have won 13 of their last 15 and own the best record in baseball at 78-41.

The D-Backs will likely comb the waiver wire to replace Marquis. Bruce Chen is one possibility. Another would be Carlos Zambrano, who was last seen clearing out his Cubs locker after being ejected for throwing at the Braves Chipper Jones. Zambrano is a major headcase, but is also a proven starter and three-time All-Star.

Source: ESPN.com

On July 25th, Pittsburgh was 53-47 and tied for the National League Central lead with the Cardinals. The Brewers trailed by .5 game and the Reds were four games back. Fifteen days and one agonizing losing streak later, and the Pirates find themselves battling Cincinnati for third place in the division, 9.5 games behind Milwaukee. What happened?

Let us count the ways. A normally reliable pitching staff allowed 82 runs during the next ten losses. They faced some of the NL’s finest hurlers, including Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Carlos Zambrano and Aaron Harang. But that really doesn’t excuse being drubbed by the Cubs and Padres — the two worst teams in the league minus the Astros.

Everyone gets battered by the Phillies, The Phillies look like the best team in baseball. So getting swept by them is nothing to be embarrassed about. However, tanking a four-game set at home to the Cubs and allowing 35 runs in three games against the NL West cellar-dwelling Padres is shameful.

But hey, it’s the Pirates. They were 57-105 in 2010. From 2005-2009, they lost over 90 games each season. The last year they dropped less than 83 games was the abbreviated work-stoppage season in 1994. If any sports franchise has perfected the art of losing, it’s the Pirates.

Despite their shocking surge during the first half of 2011, most pundits and fans appeared to be bracing for the other shoe to drop. The feeling was there’s no way they can maintain their stellar play. A young roster would succumb to the mounting pressure of contending for a playoff spot.

Cue the swoon.

The optimist believes they have plenty of games left to right the ship. The pessimist believes the ship has already sailed. After all, it’s the Pirates.

Weaver will appeal the suspension and continue to pitch until his hearing in New York City next week. However, in all likelihood the ban will be upheld, which will cause him to miss two scheduled starts in a tight AL West race.

Weaver is 14-5 and leads baseball in ERA at 1.88. He might be the Angels most important player, so sitting out a pair of starts could have a negative impact on their chances to make the playoffs. They currently trail the Rangers by one game in the AL West and the Yankees by seven games in the Wildcard standings.

Scioscia sounded none too pleased about his normally calm and collected ace’s actions.

“Obviously you don’t want to lose a guy like Jered at all, he’s an emotional guy and that’s part of that double-edged sword,” Scioscia said. “It makes him the great competitor he is and also there’s an element there that says, hey, enough is enough. Obviously we wish it didn’t pan out like that, it’s something Weave has never done before, and he’s probably the last guy you’d expect to do it. He pitches inside, he pitches aggressively, he’s got a great reputation around the league for just pitching good baseball, and that’s one that I think he’d like to have back, too.”

Retaliation throws are part of the game, but a part that Scioscia and others would like to see go away. What Guillen did is equally wrong, although showboating hurts nothing but the pitcher’s pride. Hurling a fastball at a batter’s head in order to send a message could result in serious injury. Weaver got whet he deserved and hopefully learned a lesson.

Source: ESPN.com

Manager Terry Francona is confident Bedard will provide the team the much-needed arm they’ve been seeking for months.

“He’s a guy who has shown he can pitch in the American League East. First half of the year before he tweaked that knee he was pretty solid,” Francona said. “His stuff was good. We’re excited.”

Bedard is 4-7 with a 3.45 ERA in 16 starts. He spent the last month on the DL after injuring his left knee in late June. The 32-year-old is 55-48 in in eight years with a career ERA of 3.69. He missed the entire 2010 season with chronic shoulder problems.

The move is magnified due to Clay Buchholz’s cloudy future. An MRI last week revealed a stress fracture in Buchholz’s lower back. He is currently on the 60-day disabled list and scheduled to see a specialist today. Whether or not he returns to the team this season remains to be seen, but it’s likely he will be shutdown completely. Prior to his back problems, Buchholz was 6-3 with a 3.48 ERA.

In addition to Bedard, the Red Sox also received outfielder Trayvon Robinson from the Dodgers for right-handers Juan Rodriguez and Stephen Fife and catcher Tim Federowicz. Boston then shipped Robinson to Seattle along with outfielder Chih-Hsien Chiang.

The hope is Bedard can stay healthy and fill the void in the starting rotation. Jon Lester and Josh Beckett have been dominant, combining to go 20-8. However, with Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka out, and John Lackey suffering through a miserable season, Boston is desperate for a capable third starter to send to the mound during the playoffs.

The Red Sox boast the American League’s best record at 66-40 and lead the East Division by two games over the rival Yankees.

Source: ESPN.com

Manager Ron Roenicke wasn’t clear on when Weeks will return to the lineup.

“Some guys come back in two weeks and other guys, it’s going to take six,” Roenicke said. “Part of Rickie’s game is speed on defense, speed on the base paths. Until he’s right, it’s going to be hard to put him out there because of the way he plays.”

The 28-year-old Weeks is enjoying a breakout season in 2011. In 104 games, he is hitting .272 with 19 home runs and 43 RBI and earned his first All-Star appearance in eight major league seasons. He was on pace to eclipse his career highs in homers (29) and RBI (83), which he set a year ago.

Veteran Craig Counsell will take over duties at second in Weeks’ absence for now. However, the 40-year-old utility player is batting a pathetic .150 in 73 games thus far, so Roenicke may look for other options. Infielder Eric Farris has been called up from Triple-A and Josh Wilson could slide over to second if necessary.

Another option is a trade. With Sunday’s deadline looming, the Brewers could swing a deal to give them extra infield depth, especially if Weeks is out for an extended period of time.

The Brewers are battling the Pirates, Cardinals and Reds in the compacted National League Central. They currently lead Pittsburgh and St. Louis by 1.5 games, and Cincinnati by 6.5 games.

The division will likely come down to the wire. Milwaukee has 25 games remaining versus its three rivals, including ten against the Pirates.

Source: ESPN.com