March Madness Betting Picks: Butler vs. Connecticut

Added on Apr 04, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

NCAAB

March Madness concludes tonight with the NCAA Championship game between Butler and Connecticut in Houston, Texas. Butler beat Virginia Commonwealth to advance to the title game while Connecticut outlasted a determined Kentucky team to reach this point.

Butler vs. Connecticut (at Houston, Texas)
April 4, 2011 6:20 PM Pacific

The long college basketball betting season comes to a close on Monday night as the Butler Bulldogs face the Connecticut Huskies. Despite the fact that Butler is back in this game for the second straight year and came tantalizingly close to upsetting Duke in the 2010 championship there’s still a perception among the general public that they don’t belong. That perception is why the ‘squares’ struggle betting college basketball despite the fact that the ‘sharps’ carve up the sport like a Honey Baked Ham. This isn’t to say that the game is a ‘lock’ or that UConn can’t or won’t win–they can. Our point is that just because a team has a higher profile in the college basketball world it doesn’t mean that they’re ‘superior’ to an opponent that may not have such a long legacy of success.

We’re surprised at how little respect Butler is getting in this matchup from the ‘public’ which is, in turn, reflected in the pointspread. Despite the ‘man on the street’ opinion of many that a UConn victory is a fait accompli the line has moved from the opening price of Huskies -4 to -3′. Considering that Duke opened a -5′ point favorite over Butler last year (closing -6) it still doesn’t suggest that a team playing in their second NCAA title game in as many years is priced correctly. Bulldogs on a torrid pointspread run as a NCAA tournament underdog going 11-3 ATS. UConn is no slouch in this department either, currently on a 8-2 ATS run.

The Huskies may have more players that will eventually make the NBA than Butler, but that’s almost a strike against them–they may not bring the intensity that the Bulldogs will here and particularly on the defensive end where Butler plays man to man ‘D’ as well as any team in the country. Connecticut is a better rebounding team than Butler, but so was Florida…and Pittsburgh…and Wisconsin. You get the point. And we’ll take the points here. Hopefully you took a position on Butler when we gave out our ‘to win’ wagers before the Final Four began in which case you’re holding a +285 moneyline ticket on the Bulldogs that represents a great value over the current +155 price. If not, the moneyline isn’t a bad idea here but neither is Butler plus the points.

Bet Butler +3′ over Connecticut