National Championship Prediction

Added on Apr 04, 2011 by Scott in

NCAAB

Three weeks of legitimate madness culminates tonight when No. 8 seed Butler faces No. 3 UConn to decide college basketball’s national championship. It’s Horizon League versus Big East. It’s small school versus big school. It’s young coach versus Hall of Famer. It’s 14-game winning streak versus 10-game winning streak. Something, as they say, has gotta give. So, which team cuts down the nets in this improbable title tilt? Let’s take a look.

Butler (28-9) versus Connecticut (31-9)

Win or lose, Butler’s two-year postseason run is one for the ages. It’s one thing for a college hoops titan like UConn or Duke to make back-to-back Final Four trips, but for a mid-major from Indiana to do it is both surprising and admirable. Head coach Brad Stevens has gone from neophyte coach from an obscure school to the hottest name in the game in twelve months. His system is simple: play hard and smart every possession. However, getting 19 and 20-year-old players to buy into this system is easier said than done.

Senior forward Matt Howard encapsulates Butler to a man. He has talent, but it’s his willingness to do the little things, like rebound, take a charge or dive for a loose ball that separates him from most players who would rather launch jumpers for forty minutes. Guard Shelvin Mack could start for any team in the country; he’s a long-range sniper who has nailed nine three-pointers in his last two games. Center Andrew Smith and forward Khyle Masrshall have been beasts on the glass, averaging over 12 rebounds per game in the tournament. Reserve guards Zach Hahn and Shawn Vanzant are ones to watch; both have converted timely shots down the stretch. The Bulldogs will play their customary stifling defense, but must contain UConn’s dangerous backcourt. Experience is on their side and the desire to finish what they started last March is strong.

Jim Calhoun has transformed Connecticut from a no-name program into a basketball powerhouse since arriving on campus 22 years ago. He’ll be looking for a third championship, which would place him in select coaching company; only four coaches have won three titles. Could this be Calhoun’s swan song? Rumors of his retirement amidst recruiting violations have been swirling for weeks. At 68, he could pull off the rare feat of going out on top with a victory.

It takes great players to win it all and UConn has perhaps the greatest in the country in guard Kemba Walker. Although limited offensively against Arizona and Kentucky, he still made his presence felt with 14 assists and 10 rebounds. Defending him with a taller, long-armed player like Kentucky did with DeAndre Liggins is a sound strategy that Butler would be wise to adopt. Jeremy Lamb will present matchup problems due to his ability to knock down threes and slip inside the paint; he’s scored double digits in every game during the Huskies current win streak. Forward Alex Oriakhi is dominant on the glass, but will have his hands full against Butler’s active front line. UConn struggles at times defending the perimeter and is prone to poor shot selection and committing sloppy turnovers. They must be aggressive on both ends of the floor and avoid mental errors.

You can pretty much throw out the stat sheets in games like this. It’ll be a low scoring, physical battle that will probably be tough to watch in stretches. The Bulldogs excel taking away opponents strengths, but they haven’t faced an elite scorer like Walker since Duke’s Nolan Smith back in December. If the combo of Walker and Lamb are allowed to go off, UConn wins. However, betting against Butler seems foolish at this point. I’m no fool. The “underdog” shocks the world.

Butler 64, UConn 62