Sportsbooks are offering action on CFL football, and the first weekend of play is in the books.  In our previous two posts on CFL football betting we gave an overview of the differences between CFL football and the NFL game and discussed some basic concepts of handicapping CFL sides.  In today’s entry we’ll look at some basic premises of handicapping CFL totals.

CFL TOTALS:

In many ways, handicapping CFL totals is identical to handicapping NFL totals.  Teams that favor the rushing game and keep the clock moving, or strong defensive teams are more likely to produce ‘Under’ results.  Teams that throw on almost every down or turn the ball over alot are likely to produce ‘Overs’.   Most of the CFL specific rules don’t appear to have a significant impact on either inflating or deflating final scores.  The CFL ‘three downs’ for offensive teams basically evens out–it results in more possession changes (which in theory should increase scoring) but also in fewer sustained drives (which theoretically decreases scoring).  The presence of a ‘single’ also has minimal if any impact on final scores–this seems slightly counterintuitive since it’s another way for teams to score but it seldom has a measurable impact on totals.  Teams seldom ‘try’ to make a single–since many come from missed field goal attempts teams would much rather get the three points for making the attempt rather than settle for one.

WEATHER:

Weather is a significant consideration for NFL totals handicappers, but surprisingly its not a major factor for most of the CFL season.  Occasionally there will be games played in the rain or in strong winds, but the league’s July to October season manages to avoid the worst winter weather.  That being said, bad weather is a very common occurrence late in the season and into the Grey Cup playoffs.  A diligent handicapper considers the weather in any outdoor sport regardless of the time of year, but in CFL football it doesn’t have much influence on the game until the latter part of the season.

THE MOST IMPORTANT THING TO REMEMBER:

The most important thing to remember about CFL totals doesn’t involve statistics or trends–it’s a function of how the game is perceived outside of Canada and how that perception influences the linesmaking process.  The casual sports betting enthusiast, particularly in the United States, often has an incorrect impression of the CFL game.  Much of that is due to the minimal coverage the league receives in the mainstream US sports media, and how few games have been shown on US TV over the years.

It’s amazing that one game could color the perception of the sport for years to come, but with the CFL that’s not far from the truth.  The 84th Grey Cup in 1996 between Toronto and Edmonton was televised on ESPN in the United States and may very well have had the biggest American audience for a CFL TV broadcast in history.  This was the famous ‘Snow Bowl’ that was played in a heavy snowstorm in Hamilton, Ontario and featured then Toronto Argonaut Doug Flutie, a familiar face to US fans.  The back and forth game was a very entertaining spectacle, and when it was over Toronto emerged victorious by a 43-37 score.

The game was the second highest scoring Grey Cup in history (Saskatchewan beat Hamilton 43-40 in 1989) but without the context provided by regular coverage of the CFL, many casual US sports fans assumed that it was a typical day of Canadian Football.  To this day, many football fans who don’t see the CFL regularly think that its essentially an outdoor version of Arena Football with similarly inflated scorelines.

That couldn’t be further from the truth, but since sportsbooks set lines to reflect public perception the result has been that the average CFL total is often shaded several points *higher* than it likely should be.  Since the ‘public’ likes to play ‘Overs’ anyway and since so much of the betting world has an incorrect perception of the nature of the CFL game more often than not the best value position is on the ‘Under’.

Now, this isn’t to say that you should blindly play the ‘Under’ on every CFL game or that the ‘Over’ is never the right side.  In fact, my first CFL play of the season this year was a winning ‘Over’ on the opening game between Montreal and Saskatchewan.  What is important is to understand the true nature of how the CFL game works and that in many respects its just like the NFL in terms of how the serious bettor approaches handicapping it.  On the other hand, since CFL totals are often shaded higher than the statistical data justifies there are numerous good opportunities to play ‘Under’ the total during the course of the season.

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