College Football Odds: September 4th Breakdown and Picks
Added on Sep 04, 2010 by Eric Galko in

With the College Football season in full form now, it’s time to kickoff the opening Saturday of the year. Only two games really have huge implications, but I’ll give you a few locks for the week against the odds, as well as pick every game of the day, as I will each week this year.
Feature Game: North Carolina @ LSU (PK)
My Pick: LSU
Both team’s feature great defenses, as both will have future NFL players. But with the most recent Marvin Austin suspension and the negative atmosphere around the entire program, I’m not ready to crown the Tar Heels as having the best defense in the country. They may have the most future NFL 1st rounders on that defense, but LSU has the history and coaching to be dominant as well.
The offense slightly favors LSU. TJ Yates and Greg Little form a great duo on the outside for North Carolina and the running game is among the best in the ACC. While the Tigers don’t have a stable group of running backs like last year, Jordan Jefferson and Terrence Toliver have another year to develop together and both are more talented than Yates and Little.
Projected Final Score: LSU 24-20 North Carolina
Feature Game: Washington @ BYU (-3)
My Pick: Washington
With BYU in the headlines recently, it’s easy to forget how much the Washington Huskies were in the headlines early last season. Jake Locker, the country’s best NFL draft prospect at quarterback and one of the favorites for the Heisman trophy, leads the Huskies with a host of young talent around him on offense featured by Carlos Polk at running back.
BYU lost Max Hall, Harvey Unga, and Dennis Pitta from last year, their three top weapons. Their offensive line is still in place and one of the best on the west coast. But a new quarterback and the need to build chemistry in a hurry against a deep Huskie team should mean a tight game, but an eventual loss.
Projected Final Score: Washington 30-21 BYU
Best Bets: Illinois @ Missouri (-24)
My Pick: Missouri
If I haven’t said it enough through my past articles, I’m chugging the Missouri Tiger Cool-Aid this year. I think Blaine Gabbart is a stronger Chase Daniel in this Gary Pinkeloffense with enough weapons around him. The Derrick Washington suspension andlikely removal from the team hurts, but this offense is built around the past and will be a mere hiccup.
The Illini have been in a mess since Rashard Mendenhall’s season, and have been in a downward spiral ending with last year’s 3-9 record. The offense is still young, the defense isn’t overally talented nor deep, and they don’t have much of a chance in this one.
Projected Final Score: Missouri 49-14 Illinois
Best Bets: UCLA (-2.5) @ Kansas State
My Pick: Kansas State
For whatever reason, UCLA has been a favorite sleeper from the West Coast, and I’m not close at all to buying in. Kevin Prince is finally a quarterback they can trust, but they don’t have many offensive weapons outside of him. The defense has talent, but isn’t deep enough to really compete in the Pac-10 or, in this case, on the road far from home.
Kansas State improved quickly upon Bill Snyder’s return, and with one of the country’s best rushers in Daniel Thomas in the backfield, the Wildcats should be a solid team. The rest of the offense is lacking, especially with explosive kick-returner Brandon Banks gone. Still, home field advantage for a great coach facing a lackluster defense means that Kansas State should have a comfortable win.
Projected Final Score: Kansas State 24-14 UCLA
Best Bets: Utah State @ Oklahoma (-28)
My Pick: Oklahoma
When it comes to picking a national title contender, I wouldn’t touch Oklahoma. But when it comes to facing a WAC foe, 28 points isn’t nearly enough. Landry Jones is very accurate and has Ryan Broyles and Demarco Murray, both of which will be playing on Sundays. Plus, one of the best defenses year in and year out is still slated to be among the country’s best.
Utah State does have Diondre Borel, a quarterback I like a lot moving forward. However, he doesn’t have nearly enough weapons around him nor the defense to support their ineffeciencies. Oh yeah, plus their playing at one of the toughest places in the country to win.
Projected Final Score: Oklahoma 73-21 Utah State
Best Bets: San Jose State @ Alabama (-38)
My Pick: Alabama
I generally stay away from lines above 30 points because of the fact that it’s hard to predict how the winning team’s 2nd and 3rd teamers will respond to playing. However, in the case of the 2010 BCS champ, I’ll take my chances. Especially thanks to the fact that Greg McElroy, Julio Jones, and Trent Richardson are all Top 3 in the SEC, the best conference in the country, at their positions.
San Jose State has featured players in the past to make the NFL and even some solid players that get playing time. However, they haven’t been able to consistently take advantage of the California talent, and lack the depth to hang even with most SEC 2nd teams. This should be a beating early and often.
Projected Final Score: Alabama 84-13 San Jose State
Best Bets: Bowling Green @ Troy (-13)
My Pick: Troy
Outside of this year most likely, the Troy Trojans have been the feature team in the Sun Belt and usually the only team to challenge in out of conference games. While this year might be Middle Tennessee State’s year, the Trojans of Troy still have enough talent across the board, even though they lost their quarterback.
Bowling Green, on the other hand, doesn’t have enough talent to overcome the loss of their quarterback. Maybe more important than the loss of Tyler Sheehan at quarterback was the loss of one of college football most productive receivers in the past few years in Freddie Barnes. The lack of a trusting quarterback and losing Freddie Barnes should be enough to struggle mightily all season, starting off with Troy.
Projected Final Score: Troy 38-17 Bowling Green
Other Picks (Winners Picked First)
Georgia -24 Louisiana Lafayette
Colorado -13.5 Colorado State
Notre Dame -12 Purdue
Rice +32.5 Texas
Michigan -2.5 UConn
Oregon -35 New Mexico
Clemson -19.5 North Texas
Kentucky -2 Louisville
Syracuse -8 Akron
Auburn -30.5 Arkansas State
Nebraska -34 Western Kentucky
Oklahoma State -16.5 Washington State
Eastern Michigan +10 Army
Mississippi State -20.5 Memphis
Vanderbilt -3 Northwestern
TCU -14.5 Oregon State
Cincinnati +1 Fresno State
UNLV -18 Wisconsin
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