“I am really ticked off. It was a foolish … race. I don’t know what to tell you. I don’t like this kind of racing and you know it.”

At one point Earnhardt was one of the best in the business at restrictor plate tracks but that was before the current trend toward two car ‘pairs’ drafting together during the race. It’s not that Junior didn’t have a good drafting partner–he was working with five time Sprint Cup champion Jimmie Johnson–but was essentially ‘hung out to dry’ after the #48 car took a green flag pitstop late in the race while Dale Jr’s #88 car stayed out on the track. He made clear prior to the race that he’s a ‘lone wolf’:

“I’d rather have control of my own destiny and be able to go out there and race and just do my own work and worry about my own self. Been growing up all these years racin’ for No. 1, lookin’ out for No. 1, doing my job. This is what I need to do, I need to do this to get up through the pack. This is how my car drives. Now you are doing it so different. Your thought process and everything you think about during the race is nothing near that.”

“It is just different and weird.”

After the race he didn’t blame Johnson specifically for the poor finish but….:

“I’m driving my car, do what I’m told. They decided to do something different. I can’t run the whole damn thing from the seat of the damn race car. I’m just doing what I’m told out there. I don’t know how that affected us, if it did at all. It probably didn’t.”

Johnson has since found himself the target of Dale Jr’s passionate fanbase and took to Twitter to defend himself against charges that he ‘sandbagged’ the #88:

“You people are crazy. When my crew tells me to pit, I pit. Steve and Chad (crew chiefs Steve Letarte and Chad Knaus) sort out the details.”

Earnhardt will try to avoid his 95th race without a victory when the Sprint Cup tour heads to Kentucky next Saturday night.

Following Busch and Gordon across the finish line was Carl Edwards, Clint Bowyer, pre race betting favorite Marcos Ambrose, Joey Logano, Jimmie Johnson, Martin Truex, Jr., Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski.

Needless to say, Busch was pleased not only by the victory but by winning at a road course for the first time in his career:

“We’ve been on a great run these last few weeks. To get a road course win, it’s a big check mark on my list. It’s just really neat to bring home that ‘W.”

He also had props for teammate Brad Keselowski:

“It’s a good feeling to know that the two teams are working as closely together as they ever have. Knowing that Brad is definitely maturing, seeing him bust off a top 10 at a road course is great. We went around the race track, I pointed out some of the apex points, exit points, shifting points. He absorbed it like a sponge.”

“That’s what it takes as a veteran of the team to help the kid that’s coming up through and to have his information help us. That’s exactly what’s helped both teams get stronger.”

The best postrace insult was thrown around by youngster Joey Logano, who called Robby Gordon a ‘moron’:

“He drives like a moron every week. We were a lot faster than him. I got outside of him one corner and he knocked in my fender. So I had enough of it. I’m not going to get pushed around; I don’t care.”

NASCAR goes from one extreme to another this week as they head to the superspeedway at Daytona for some high speed restrictor plate racing. The close quarters drafting will be a drastic change from the up and downshifting at Sonoma.

Ryan Newman has had an ongoing ‘feud’ with rival driver Juan Pablo Montoya and last month at Darlington officials summoned both men to the NASCAR hauler in hopes to mediate the dispute. NASCAR’s official statement on the meeting was that “”did not go as well as we had hoped it would.” That could be the understatement of the year. Rumor has it that Newman slugged Montoya during the meeting and NASCAR ‘secretly’ fined him $50,000.

This isn’t the first time that tempers have simmered during a NASCAR hauler disciplinary meeting. Several years ago Tony Stewart was placed on ‘probation’ for punching Kurt Busch during a similar meeting. Not surprisingly, Newman gave a ‘no comment’ when the story broke on Monday. NASCAR gave this cryptic statement:

“Anything relevant to discussions that NASCAR has with competitors in the hauler will continue to stay between NASCAR and the competitors, and NASCAR will always work to protect that bridge of confidence.”

The drivers wouldn’t even confirm that they came to blows inside the hauler. Here’s what Montoya had to say:

“I don’t know, ask him. could tell you either way, couldn’t I? I could make something up. Let’s leave it at that.”

Newman responded:

“That’s just speculation. It was a private meeting. That’s why we had it at the hauler. With conflict there are varying opinions, that’s what causes the conflict. I’m past it.”

NASCAR caught some heat several years ago for issuing ‘secret’ fines to drivers. At the time they suggested they’d do better in the future so this story is a big potential embarrassment for the organization. With the exception of the UFC–where sexual harassment of reporters in the locker room and slumping ratings are apparently no concern to Dana White who spends his time in potty mouthed feuds on Twitter that 9th graders would find immature–NASCAR is arguably the most dysfunctional sports oversight body in the US. Unlike the UFC, as least they pay attention to the product and punish bad behavior. Fans just wish they’d be more open about it.

NASCAR Gatorade Duel Race #2 from Daytona
February 17, 2011  11:00 AM Pacific

We discussed our handicapping and NASCAR betting selections for the first Gatorade Duel Race in a previous post.  Note that the start time reflects the scheduled start for the first Gatorade Duel race and the actual start time of the second race will be determined by how long the first one runs.  Most sportsbooks have the start time for the second race as 11:00 AM as well, however, so no reason not to go ahead and get down on both at the same time.

As we talked about in our handicap of the first duel, these races will set the starting order for Sunday’s Daytona 500.  Most races d have a very straightforward qualification process–drivers qualify with a couple of laps around the track on Friday with the best times setting the starting order for the weekend’s race.  The Daytona 500, however, has a unique multi-part qualification process that began last Sunday with a time trial similar to one before any other race.  The difference in this case, however, is that only the first two starting positions were up for grabs–Dale Earnhardt Jr. took the pole (more about him in a moment) while Jeff Gordon qualified second.  The rest of the Daytona 500 field is set through a pair of 125 lap races–that’s what we’ve got today.

And thanks to a bad break for Dale Junior these qualifying races are even more significant–Earnhardt wrecked his #88 Chevy in practice yesterday.  He’ll still get credit for taking the pole, but will have to start at the back of the field since he’s being forced to use a backup car.  That moves Jeff Gordon up to the pole position and puts everything from the #2 starting spot back to Dale Junior at the rear of the field.  Thanks to several of the big stars of the sport being in the second race we’ve got a good value opportunity on a driver who isn’t quite as big of a ‘household name’.  Jeff Gordon is one of the betting favorites in this race, but he’s already locked in his starting position due to his qualifying run.  The top choice is Kyle Busch (+425) and Denny Hamlin (+550) but we’ll go down the list a bit and back Clint Bowyer at +850.  Bowyer may not have the name recognition that the aforementioned drivers do, but he’s very good on restrictor plate tracks.  He led both Daytona races last year, won at Talladega and has the highest average finish on plate tracks of any active driver.  He’ll start 3rd in the Duel and is a great value at the price–getting good drivers at value prices is the name of the game in NASCAR betting and that’s exactly what we’ve got here.

Bet Clint Bowyer +850 to win Gatorade Duel Race #2

NASCAR Gatorade Duel Race #1 from Daytona
February 17, 2011  11:00 AM Pacific

Most races during the NASCAR season have a very straightforward qualification process–drivers qualify with a couple of laps around the track on Friday with the best times setting the starting order for the weekend’s race.  The Daytona 500, however, has a unique multi-part qualification process that began last Sunday with a time trial similar to one before any other race.  The difference in this case, however, is that only the first two starting positions were up for grabs–Dale Earnhardt Jr. took the pole (more about him in a moment) while Jeff Gordon qualified second.  The rest of the Daytona 500 field is set through a pair of 125 lap races–that’s what we’ve got today.

And thanks to a bad break for Dale Junior these qualifying races are even more significant–Earnhardt wrecked his #88 Chevy in practice yesterday.  He’ll still get credit for taking the pole, but will have to start at the back of the field since he’s being forced to use a backup car.  That moves Jeff Gordon up to the pole position and puts everything from the #2 starting spot back to Dale Junior at the rear of the field.

Race #1 of the Gatorade Duels is chock full o’ talent–in addition to Earnhardt the field includes defending Sprint Cup champion Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman among others.  Hard to say how Earnhardt will approach the race–he’ll say he’s going to try to win, of course, but from a practical standpoint won’t be taking any chances that might cause him to wreck his second car before the first race of the year.  Besides, even if he wins he still starts at the rear of the field.  For that reason you may see the #88 team try out a new setup or otherwise use this opportunity to do something different.

Ultimately, however, we’ve got to go with Kevin Harvick to win the Gatorade Duel Race #1.  You can make a good case that Harvick is the best restrictor plate driver in NASCAR right now–he won the July race at Daytona last year, won at Talladega and had the best car in the Daytona 500 before some bad racing luck cost him a victory.  He won the 2010 Budwiser Shootout, finished second by inches in his 2010 Duel race and earned more points on restrictor plate tracks than any other driver.  We’ll play Harvick at 5 Dimes to win the first Duel and lock down the #2 starting position.

Bet Kevin Harvick +375 to win Gatorade Duel Race #1

Budwiser Shootout at Daytona
Daytona International Speedway
February 12, 2011  5:00 PM Pacific

There are two primary types of NASCAR wagers that we’ll be dealing with this year–the ‘to win’ wager and matchup wagering.  The ‘to win’ wager is self explanatory–you pick the driver that will win the race and if he takes the checkered flag you cash your ticket.  Matchup wagers should be familiar to anyone who has bet on golf–sportsbooks quote a matchup of two drivers and the driver with the best finish wins the bet.

What we usually do with ‘to win’ wagers is try to isolate several drivers who have a good chance of winning at good prices and split our bet among them.  Occasionally we’ll put all of our ‘eggs in one basket’ but more often than not we try to spread it around.  The Budwiser Shootout is essentially an exhibition race–the actual Sprint Cup season will start next week with the Daytona 500.  Nevertheless, it’s a highly competitive race and one in which the drivers go all out to win.  The format is different than a typical NASCAR event with a 25 lap opening segment followed by a 10 minute ‘pit stop’ break.  That’s followed by a 50 lap sprint to the finish.  Here’s how we’ll play the ‘to win’ wagers:

TO WIN:

CLINT BOWYER:  Bowyer may not be a ‘household name’ a la Jeff Gordon or Dale Earnhardt, Jr. but he’s a solid driver that’s demonstrated an ability to win on restrictor plate tracks.  Bowyer won at Talledega last year and will use the same chassis in the Shootout.   Tested at Daytona earlier this year and turned in a very strong practice time this week.  He’s +1600 at 5 Dimes and a great value at the price.

KEVIN HARVICK:  Harvick is the favorite in this race–he’s won the Budwiser Shootout the previous two years and won two plate races last season including the summer race on this track.

JOEY LOGANO:  Logano is a future star and had the best car in practice this week.  Some question about his experience (or lack thereof) but his aggressive driving style should be made to order for this format.

Bet Clint Bowyer +1600
Bet Kevin Harvick +675
Bet Joey Logano +2700

MATCHUPS:

One of the reasons that NASCAR is such a great betting sport is the wealth of statistical data available on every aspect of driver performance.  That’s how we handicap matchups–we look at recent form, past performance on a specific track, start position, practice times and several other factors of each driver in the matchup.  Then we evaluate prices and look for situations where we’re getting a good price on a driver with a strong statistical basis for finishing ahead of his matchup opponent.  The process is similar to handicapping team sports–we don’t necessarily bet on the best teams but look for situations where we’re getting good value.

One more thing–different sportsbooks will offer different matchups.  More often than not we’ll be using the matchups from 5 Dimes due to the wide array of props they offer.

Bet Kyle Busch -125 over Tony Stewart
Bet Clint Bowyer -120 over Carl Edwards
Bet Joey Logano -120 over Juan Pablo Montoya

It took Harvick 20 races to finally get to the Michigan International Speedway winner’s circle.  He hadn’t raced badly at the track, with a best finish of 2^nd in 2003 and 6 top tens but just hadn’t been able to put himself in a position to win.  His crew chief Gil Martin gave him that opportunity on Sunday, opting to stay out on the track during a late race caution rather than pit for fresh tires.  After the restart, Harvick methodically worked his way around leader Denny Hamlin with ten laps remaining and held on for the victory.   The victory clinches a ‘Chase for the Championship’ berth for Harvick’s team, and after the race he credited the decision to stay out on the track as the reason for the win:

“That was a big decision to stay out but we had such a fast car today. This year has proven we can compete nearly every week when we show up at the track. I can’t say enough about Richard (Childress) and what he does to help turn this team around and I’m hoping we can just keep this up as we head into the Chase.”

Harvick started 8^th on Sunday and the victory further underscored the importance of a good qualifying run at Michigan.  In 83 Sprint Cup races at the track, the winner has come from further back than 25^th only four times.  53 of the 83 winners have come from the top five starting positions, and 65 from the top ten.

Harvick’s victory produced a nice payday for his ‘financial backers’, cashing tickets at +1200 as the 6^th choice in NASCAR betting odds. Prerace favorite Jimmie Johnson, who went off as a +450 chalk, finished 12^th.  Second choice Hamlin (+600) took second place.  Polesitter Kasey Kahne was a +1500 choice and finished 14^th.

There are two primary ways to bet on a NASCAR race.  The first, is to pick the winner of the race outright.  Since even the top drivers are typically ‘plus money’ underdogs (for example, defending NASCAR champ Jimmie Johnson is +500 to win the Daytona race) generally you take positions on several drivers and distribute your wagers so that if any win you turn a profit.  The other common betting method is head to head driver matchups, which are similar to head to head matchups in golf.  Online betting sites quote prices on ‘driver A’ vs. ‘driver B’ and if the driver you bet on finishes ahead of the other driver you win your wager.

We’ll focus on a driver matchup for today’s race:

Daytona 500
February 14, 10:00 AM Pacific

One of the great things about handicapping NASCAR is that there are so many statistics available to work with.  Every practice is timed and evaluated, every driver’s performance at every track is dissected in a variety of ways.  A frequently heard term among NASCAR fans is a driver’s ‘average finish’ at a track.  Unfortunately, these can be somewhat misleading for our purposes and particularly at a restrictor plate track like Daytona.  A driver can have a better average finish but be less of a threat to actually win the race than a lower ranked driver.

Such is the case with our matchup today.  Brian Vickers has an average finish of 19.6 in five previous career starts at Daytona, with his highest finish coming last July (7th place).  Ryan Newman’s average finish is only 28 for his entire career.  In his last 16 starts, however, its 20.9 with three top tens and the 2008 Daytona 500 victory.  Over the past 10 races he’s among the top 10 best performing drivers.

NASCAR is a sport where drivers can have 20 or 30 year long careers, so its important to put career records into the context of current form.  In the most recent races, Newman has been one of the best drivers at Daytona and he represents a good value in his matchup with Vickers.  He’s also a good value to win the race at 30/1.

Bet Ryan Newman -115 over Brian Vickers

Dover International Speedway

Sunday, September 27 1:00pm (ABC)

The second leg of the Chase for the Cup takes place this week at Dover’s famed “Monster Mile”.

 Mark Martin showed last week that he is someone to be reckoned with if you want the NASCAR title after taking the win at New Hampshire. The 50 year old veteran with 20 plus years of experience has 40 career wins, is one of the most popular drivers of all time and is a future Hall of Fame inductee but has yet to add a Cup championship to his resume. The time is now for Martin and he has a lot of the NASCAR faithful pulling for him.

As for this week, Dover has been a very good track historically for Roush-Fenway, especially Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth. The trio collectively since 2005 has 27 starts/4 wins/16 Top 5′s/22 Top 10′s and an average finish of 7.52, bad news is 2009 has not been a banner year for Roush or Ford in general.

In the spring race this year Jimmie Johnson dominated leading 298 laps on his way to the win over Tony Stewart and Biffle. By the way JJ is also good here….what a shock.

Here are this weeks favorites and sleepers:

Favorites

Jimmie Johnson

Won handily here in the spring. In 15 career starts has 4 wins/6 Top 5′s/10 Top 10′s with an average finish of 10.4. Had struggled a bit with bad luck in a few races going into the Chase but proved last week that this is Jimmie time with a 4th place finish at New Hampshire. No reason to think he will not be Top 3 material this Sunday and the favorite for the win.

Greg Biffle

This is definitely one of Biff’s best tracks and has openly said that he will be severly disappointed if he is not at the front come Sunday. Think he will be the best chance for Roush this week, to be honest he is the only Roush driver to show up the past month or two having 5 Top 10′s in the last 8 races. His stats at Dover: 14 starts/2 wins/6 top 5′s/9 top 10′s with an average of 10.6. Has not finished worse than 8th in the last 7 races(including 4 straight in the Top 3).

Mark Martin

The “kid” is en fuego right now. 1st, 4th, 5th and 2nd the last four races. Sunday was his 5th win of the year. Bad news for the other Chase contenders, Mark is good at Dover: 29 Top 10′s in 46 career starts(including 9 of the last 11 with a 7.36 average)

Carl Edwards

Even though this team has had some troubles this year you can’t overlook their past performances here. In 10 career starts has a 7.6 average with 1 win/5 Top 5′s /7 Top 10′s (has never finished outside the Top 18). Has 6 straight Top 7 finishes,  5 of those were Top 3′s.

Sleepers

Matt Kenseth

The other member of the Roush trio. Only 3 Top 10′s the last 11 races in 2009 with the highest finish of 8th but like his teammates has great history here. Has 4 Top 5′s in the last 5 starts at Dover. In the one race he didn’t finish Top 5 he blew an engine and finished 35th but not before leading 192 laps (the most of any driver).

Denny Hamlin

In the sleeper category only because of his recent history at Dover, 4 straight finishes of 36th or worse, nothing but bad luck.

Has been one of the hottest drivers the past couple of months, 11 Top 10′s the past 13 races(including 7 Top 5′s and 2 wins) if around at the end a good bet for a Top 5-8 finish maybe even better.

Ryan Newman

Another driver thats been on a consistent roll. Newman has been out performing his teammate Tony Stewart the last 5-6 races. On a steak of 4 straight Top 10′s and only one finish worse than 15th the last 9.

Early in his career this was an outstanding track for Newman with 3 wins in his first 6 starts, has simmered off but did run 8th here in June.

Juan Montoya

Not a great track for JPM but this guy is in it to win it. Great second place run last week at New Hampshire and wouldn’t be surprised if he is a threat again this week.

Jeff Burton

My gut pick of the week. This team does have good history at Dover but RCR has struggled mightily and combine that with rotten luck and 2009 has been a real downer for Jeff Burton. The Childress teams have shown signs of life as of late and Burton was on his way to a Top 10 last week before a late race tangle set him back to 16th. So this team may be on a up tick.

His numbers at Dover: Has finished Top 16 or better in 14 of the last 15 with an average finish of 10.1 that includes 1 win/4 Top 5′s/8 Top 10′s not sure if he will be in the mix for the win but maybe a good play for a match-up or prop.

Should be a good one on Sunday. Lets go racing!

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Sunday September 20  1:00pm

The Chase is on! The much anticipated NASCAR playoff starts this weekend at New Hampshire, twelve drivers will battle over the next ten races for the biggest prize in all of stock car racing.

Mark Martin begins the Chase as the point leader in lieu of having the most race wins over the first 26 races of the season. Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson are 2nd and 3rd ten points behind, while Denny Hamlin and Kasey Kahne round out the top five. Both are 20 points in back of Martin.

As for this week’s race at NHMS the key word is patience, especially for the Chase drivers. This is pretty much a flat race track and can be difficult to pass so a cool head is key and that definitely favors someone like Mark Martin. Here are the favorites and sleepers for this week:

Favorites

Denny Hamlin

If its a flat race track Hamlin has to be on the list. In 7 starts at NHMS, 5 Top 10′s/2 Top 5′s/ 1 win and an avg. finish of 8.3. Comes into this race on a streak of six straight Top 10′s (5.5 avg.). After some adversity through the first part of the season this team has put the pieces together and may be the one to beat over these next ten races.

Jimmie Johnson

When is he not on this list? This team has had a little trouble of their own in a few races lately but this is the time when the 48 guys start to shine.

At New Hampshire JJ has only finished out of the Top 10 once in the last eight races (10.9 avg). His career stats here: 15 starts/10 Top 10′s/4 Top 5′s/2 wins/9.9 avg. Not his best track but think he will be sniffing the front come Sunday.

Jeff Gordon

Not a surprise here either. Three second place finishes in the last five races here. Has three wins also but none since ’98. Has finished second four times since his last win at Texas in the spring so Jeff is close and due to get a win soon.

Kurt Busch

Not sure how the news of crew chief Pat Tryson leaving Penske at the end of the year will affect this team for the remainder of 2009 (seem to be ok last week finishing second at Richmond) but you can’t overlook Kurt’s recent accomplishments at this track, 3rd, 6th and 1st the last three trips to New England. Has three wins in the last 11 starts at NHMS.

Mark Martin

This is the sentimental favorite and he will be interesting to watch. MM doesn’t have great history here (only 2 Top 10′s in his last 11 starts) but the June race was his only start here since 2006. His smart, patient style may pay dividends.

Sleepers

Martin Truex

It has been a dismal year for Truex and this DEI/Ganassi team but if he is going to make any noise before this season ends this may be the race, by far one of his best tracks. Had a streak of 4 straight Top 7 finishes until the race in June,  he was caught up in an accident while running in the Top 10 and wound up 37th. Top 10 or better a good possibility.

David Reutimann

Just have a feeling about this one. Did run 4th here in June, 15th and 19th in 2008. Has had good runs(8 Top 10′s and a win) and bad runs(finished 28th or worse six times) in 2009, but this team has shown tons of improvement this season. Four of those Top 10′s this year were on flat racetracks.

Looking forward to getting this going, enjoy the race!