Baseball Betting Picks: Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs
Added on May 04, 2012 by Jack Thurman in
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Daytime baseball at Wrigley Field on Friday as the Chicago Cubs host the Los Angeles Dodgers in a game starting at 11:20 AM Pacific. The Dodgers have the best record in the National League at 17-8 while the Cubs are in their usual spot in the NL East basement.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs
May 4, 2012 11:20 AM Pacific
Year in and year out there’s no better way to make money betting on baseball than by doing one simple thing–bet against the Chicago Cubs whenever they take the field at home. For whatever reason and despite years and years of mounting losses the public still loves to back the home team at Wrigley Field. That keeps prices on their opponents reasonable and short of knocking over an ATM machine there’s not a more reliable way to put money in your pocket. The denial of ‘square’ bettors in this regard is amazing. It takes a prolonged losing streak for the Cubs to start being accurately valued at home. Even if that happens just a few wins in the books (such as their 2-1 series win over St. Louis last weekend) and the prices once again become reasonable.
Here’s the reality of the Chicago Cubs record at Wrigley Field: This year–and despite their winning series referenced above–they’re 5-8 -2.4 units at home. Since the start of the 2010 MLB season they’ve lost -30.3 units at Wrigley Field. And what if you’d bet against the Cubs at home for a longer period–say the start of the 1997 season? Glad you asked–since 1997 the Cubs have a home record 39 games over .500. That should be profitable, right? Guess again–that’s good for a whopping -147.4 units down the toilet. Conversely, had you been fading the Cubs in those games you’ve put a hefty profit into the bankroll.
And this isn’t a particularly favorable matchup for the Cubs. The Dodgers playing great baseball this year and putting up good numbers on offense and defense. LA starter Chad Billingsley has a tidy 2.64 ERA and his teammates shouldn’t have any trouble against Cubs’ LHP Paul Maholm. Maholm enters this contest with a bloated 6.20 ERA and faces a Los Angeles team that has posted a 7-4 record against southpaws this season.
Bet Los Angeles Dodgers (Billingsley) -130 over Chicago Cubs (Maholm)
