NFL Betting Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Added on Sep 16, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

A couple of rebuilding teams go at it in Charlotte, North Carolina as the Carolina Panthers host the Tampa Bay Bucs. Carolina lost to the New York Giants in week 1, while Tampa Bay gutted out a victory over Cleveland. The disparate results in the opening week give us some line value here, and we’ll take advantage of it.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
September 19, 2010—10:00 AM Pacific

With the way that Tampa Bay has struggled in recent years any win is a big one and credit to the Bucs for doing what they had to do in Week 1 to get past a weak Cleveland team. They’ll find the going much more difficult here at Bank of America stadium against a Carolina team that’s a little further along in the rebuilding process. Carolina may not have the stifling defense of their best years, but it’s good and getting better. The Panthers had the top pass defense in the preseason and the pass rush should get better as the season progresses. Julius Peppers is gone, but Everette Brown is emerging as a capable replacement. Overall in the preseason, the defense allowed a mere 11.6 PPG which is a good sign.

We generally like Carolina starting quarterback Matt Moore even though he struggled in his season debut at New York. He also suffered a concussion in the loss leaving him questionable for this contest. That means that former Notre Dame standout Jimmy Clausen could get his first NFL start and while his inexperience is a concern it could be a ‘best case scenario’ for a debut. Moore’s struggles weren’t entirely his fault, as his offensive line left him running for cover all game. He ended up getting sacked four times and throwing three interceptions which were as much the fault of not having time as poor decision making.

No matter which quarterback gets the nod for the Panthers, they won’t be asked to do much here. Look for Carolina to run the ball early and often against Tampa’s defense and with the tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart their rushing game is very solid. The Bucs will have to focus most of their efforts on the rush, which could open up opportunities for Clausen/Moore to find all world receiver Steve Smith downfield.

The Bucs have their own injury issues at quarterback, though Josh Freeman is back in the lineup despite suffering a broken thumb in the preseason. Freeman has worked hard to minimize the mistakes and bad throwing decisions that plagued him last year, but with a mangled hand that is still not fully healed his threat as a downfield passer is minimized. This will leave him dependent on the Bucs’ running game which simply isn’t as good as Carolina’s at this point.

As we discussed last week, Carolina may not be a contender at this point but their style is conducive to pointspread success. It’s hard to argue with a team that plays good defense and runs the football well, and that should be enough to get the win and cash a ticket here. The Panthers have covered 8 of their last 9 NFC games (the loss to the Giants broke an 8 game cover streak) and have dominated the Bucs in head to head play. They’ve won 11 of the last 14 meetings SU including both games a year ago. They’ve also covered 7 of the last 10 against the Bucs in Charlotte. Look for Carolina to move the ball well with their strong rushing attack while the defense keeps Tampa Bay in check.

We’ll also look for this game to go Under the total. Neither team wants to get into a track meet, and this series has trended strongly toward low scoring games. 12 of the last 19 meetings have gone Under including 8 of the last 10 on the Panthers’ home field. Last year’s game at this venue saw only 22 points scored and we look for another low scoring result on Sunday.

Bet Carolina -3 over Tampa Bay
Bet Carolina/Tampa Bay Under 39