Breaking Down UFC 127 Main Event: BJ Penn Vs Jon Fitch

Added on Feb 25, 2011 by John Petit in

UFC & MMA

B.J. Penn Vs. Jon Fitch

After losing twice to Frankie Edgar for the lightweight title, there were many questions surrounding BJ Penn when he decided to go back to welterweight. Was BJ’s head still in the game? Why is BJ still fighting? What’s left for him to prove? Penn answered all those questions in 21 seconds when he knocked out Matt Hughes…to everyone but Jon Fitch. Fitch has one loss in the last five years with the UFC, and its to arguable one of the best pound for pound fighters on the planet. The thought that BJ is standing in the way of him getting the rematch for the title has to be more then enough motivation for a guy like Jon Fitch.

You will hear time and time again that Jon Fitch is a grinder. I am not taking anything away from decision wins, but Fitch has earned this moniker because he has finished a fight/or has been finished since October 2005. Fitch went two and two in his first four fights, and was finished twice. He hasn’t been stopped since 2002, and since has proven impossible to finish in the cage. Fitch says he is always going for the finish, and its the other guys job to stop him anyway. This is a three round fight, so if Jon Fitch can control BJ on the ground for 15 minutes then he is sure to win. This might be a decent game plan, but BJ is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt and he could find himself in trouble. BJ hasn’t finished anyone from his back in a long time, but assuming he can’t is just plain ridiculous.

BJ Penn had a rough 2010. The seemingly unbeatable fighter found himself 1-2 when it was all said and done, and he no longer had the lightweight belt that he had defended 3 times before. His KO win over Hughes showed us a reinvigorated Penn, and what appeared to be a new attitude on fighting. BJ came out more focused in the fight against Hughes, and although he was less calm, the energy paid off in spades. Penn’s main problem with wrestlers like Jon Fitch is his take down defense. Although BJ’s is above average, he brought in Hughes to help him with tricks and ideas to defend them. Training under a guy like Matt Hughes in wrestling is bound to help anyone who decides that its a good idea, but when a guy who has the ability to learn at break neck speed does it, it could be a world of difference.

Fitch is the betting favorite at around -200, and I really thought these odds would be a lot closer come fight time. I don’t see Jon Fitch finishing BJ Penn as BJ hasn’t been finished since 2006, and the logical way for Fitch to win the fight would be via decision. So the question to me is “Can Fitch takedown BJ, and control him for three rounds?” I am sure Jon will get BJ down, but I think BJ will be able to tie up Jon and frustrate him from the bottom. Fitch will have to do it more then three times, and I am not sure he can do that. Penn has the clear advantage in the stand up, and I think thats where this fight will be won. If BJ can stay on the outside of a charging Fitch, or put Fitch’s back against the cage in the clinch, then he should be able to win at least one or two of the rounds. Fitch will have a four inch reach advantage, and that fact makes this fight even more difficult to pick. I just see more ways for BJ to win this fight, and I only see one way for Jon to win. I am going to go with BJ by split decision.