MLB Betting Free Picks: Milwaukee @ San Diego

Added on May 02, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Big weekend for sports betting sites with the Kentucky Derby and much more on tap, but there’s also plenty of baseball betting action. We’ll take a look at a National League game between the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres. Padres in first place in the NL West, while Milwaukee is fighting to avoid slipping into last place in the NL Central.

Milwaukee Brewers (Yovani Gallardo) at San Diego Padres (Mat Latos)
May 1, 5:35 PM Pacific

Starting pitching is obviously very important in baseball handicapping–its also what determines the prices on the games to the greatest extent. It’s not everything, however, and on balance its a highly overrated part of the handicapping process. It’s really the only way to explain the price on this game, but it does present us with a nice value opportunity. Milwaukee is struggling, having lost 7 of their last 8 games. Were it not for the miserable start of the Houston Astros this year they’d already be in last place and with the Astros showing improvement the Brewers may have received a short term reprieve.

At first glance, this matchup looks like a starting pitching edge for Milwaukee. Yovani Gallardo has been one of the few bright spots for Milwaukee in the early going, and he checks in with a solid 3.41 ERA coming off two exceptional starts where he didn’t allow an earned run. He’s a talented pitcher, but its important to notice where he’s made most of his bones this year–his last two starts were against a very weak hitting Pittsburgh team. Mat Latos is off a terrible start against Florida, but has otherwise pitched fairly well this year. He’s been especially sharp at home with a 2.31 ERA and prior to his rough outing against the Marlins had allowed a total of 3 ER in his previous two games.

Most significantly, San Diego is a much better team at this point in the season. They’ve won 11 of their last 13, and are particularly good at home where they boast a 9-2 record. Good opportunity to get the better team as a small underdog today.

Bet San Diego (Latos) +115 over Milwaukee (Gallardo)