MLB Betting Free Picks: Milwaukee @ San Diego

Added on May 03, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

A busy weekend at the sportsbooks is winding down, but we’ve still got some baseball betting on tap for Sunday. The Milwaukee Brewers will finish up a three game series in San Diego against the Padres, and we’ll take a position in the ‘rubber game’ of the series after the teams split the first two.

Milwaukee Brewers (Randy Wolf) at San Diego Padres (Jon Garland)
May 2, 1:05 PM Pacific

Brewers took a 2-1 victory on Saturday behind an excellent pitching performance by Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo pitched 7 innings allowing only 1 ER and ringing up 11 strikeouts. This victory notwithstanding, however, we’re still of the opinion that linesmakers are giving the Brewers too much respect and the Padres not enough. Randy Wolf gets the start here for Milwaukee and he’s been decent so far this season with a 3.34 ERA. Like much of the Brewers’ staff, however, we’re not really sold on their early season numbers which have been helped immeasurably by their schedule. Wolf, for example, has a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts but those were against light hitting Pittsburgh twice and Washington. Wolf’s career ERA against San Diego is 5.05 and at his best he’s not a dominating starter. He’s prized for his ability to put in ‘quality innings’ but isn’t someone who’ll shut down opposing teams.

Jon Garland’s YTD ERA is similar at 3.54 but he’s got a 3.00 ERA at home and has been very sharp in his last three starts–all Padre wins–with a 2.50 ERA against a much higher level of opposition. So if the pitching matchup is essentially a ‘wash’, why is this game priced at near ‘pick’em’? The Brewers have won only 2 of their last 9 games–a stretch that included a 3 game home set against the aforemention Pirates where they dropped 2 of 3. San Diego, on the other hand, has won 10 of their last 13 and have been very good at Petco Park where they’re 9-3 on the year. We’ll take the better team at the better price and back San Diego.

Bet San Diego (Garland) -105 over Milwaukee (Wolf)