MLB Betting Free Picks: Pittsburgh @ Chicago

Added on May 14, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Nothing says that summer is right around the corner more than daytime baseball at Wrigley Field, and for the baseball betting enthusiast that means daytime action at sportsbooks as well. We’ll take a look at a National League game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs. These teams are separated by 1/2 game in the NL Central standings, with the Cubs in 4th and Pirates in 5th.

Pittsburgh Pirates (Brian Burres) at Chicago Cubs (Tom Gorzelanny)
May 14, 11:20 AM Pacific

One problem that newbie baseball handicappers face is grasping the concept that even the best teams lose a significant number of games every year and, conversely, the worst teams win a fair percentage. Even the best teams in baseball history lost around 30% of their regular season games. The 1954 Cleveland Indians have the best W/L record in the modern era of baseball, and they finished with a .721 winning percentage–meaning they lost over 25% of their games. The worst team in the modern era of baseball–the 1962 Mets–won 25% of their games.

These are all time extremes, but it illustrates an important point–over the course of the season bad teams win a fair amount of games. If you can find the right price and situation, they can be as profitable as the good teams. Which brings us to today’s contest between the Pirates and Cubs. The Pirates have been the gold standard for baseball ineptitude in recent years, but have shown some measure of progress this season. They’re not in last place, which is something at this level. More importantly, they’ve got roughly the same record as the Cubs.

The Cubs are a classic ‘public’ team and you’ll always pay a premium to back them–particularly at Wrigley Field. Consider this fact–since 1997 the Cubs are 567-512 at home. Had you bet on the Cubs in every one of these home games you’d have lost -121.7 units. This season they’re playing .500 baseball at home with an 8-8 record, but that translate to a -4.7 unit loss. The Cubs are also 4-6 -5.2 units versus left handed starters this season, and are scoring nearly a full run per game less than their average against southpaws. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is 6-4 +6.6 units against LHP.

Pittsburgh swept the Cubs last week at home, and Brian Burres pitched 7 innings allowing 3 hits and no earned runs. That was his second straight start without allowing an earned run. Gorzelanny has a decent 2.83 ERA this season, but the Cubs have lost 5 of his 6 starts. The sum total of this matchup is that we’re getting a price of nearly 2 to 1 in what is a very even matchup and that is the definition of wagering value.

Bet Pittsburgh (Burres) +195 over Chicago Cubs (Gorzelanny)