MLB Betting Picks: Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals

Added on Jul 19, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

The two worst teams in the American League battle it out in Kansas City on Friday night as the Royals host the Minnesota Twins. Kansas City is in fourth place in the American League Central a full 10.5 games behind the division leading Chicago White Sox. Of greater interest in this matchup is the fact that the Royals are just 1.5 games in front of the last place Twins who have been playing reasonably well (relatively speaking at least) after a horrendous start to the season.

Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
July 20, 2012 5:10 PM Pacific

Two bad teams going head to head. We won’t go so far as to suggest that the Twins are ‘surging’ or anything like that but they’ve continued to play hard after digging themselves into a big hole to start the season. Even with their struggles this year they’ve made money on the road going 19-24 for a +3.8 unit profit. As an underdog in this price range (+125 to +150) they’ve not only made money but have a winning record at 8-6 +4.9 units. In the month of July they’re still below the ‘Mendoza Line’ going 6-9 but that’s much better than Kansas City’s pitiful 4-11 record for the month.

At first glance the Royals appear to have an edge in the pitching matchup–Nick Blackburn has been shelled in his last three starts allowing 16 ER for a 10.29 ERA in that stretch. Curiously, the Twins managed to win two of his last three starts–and worth noting that all three games were against potent offensive teams (Cincinnati, Chicago WS, Detroit). The L3 numbers are actually reflective of his season–his road ERA this year is 8.36 but the Twins improbably have won 4 of his 6 away starts. Go figure.

Kansas City starter Luke Hochevar may have a marginally better ERA but he’s no treasure. He’s been particularly ineffective at home with a 6.44 ERA and the Royals have lost 5 of his 8 home assignments. That’s not surprising since the entire Royals team has been awful at home this season–Kansas City is 16-28 -13.4 units at home which is the worst home record in Major League Baseball.

At worst, this is a matchup between two evenly matched teams which gives us good value on the Twins. More realistically, the Twins are the marginally better team and are playing (marginally) better baseball. We’ll bet this game–and series–accordingly.

Bet Minnesota Twins (Blackburn) +130 over Kansas City Royals (Hochevar)