MLB Free Picks: Milwaukee @ Chicago
Added on Apr 12, 2010 by Jack Thurman in
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Sportsbooks offering daytime baseball betting action for Monday, and we’ll take a look at a National League Central matchup between the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers. Milwaukee is 3-3 on the young season, while the Cubs are 2-4. This game will go at 11:20 AM Pacific from historic Wrigley Field:
Milwaukee Brewers (Doug Davis) at Chicago Cubs (Ryan Dempster)
April 12, 11:20 AM Pacific
As we’ve discussed before, early season baseball lines are extremely volatile and subject to overreaction based on short term events. That definitely appears to be the case here. The Cubs are a -150 favorite, and that’s based almost exclusively on the performance of the respective starters in their first game of the season. Doug Davis allowed 4 runs in 4 innings of work and didn’t factor in the decision as Milwaukee beat Colorado, while Ryan Dempster pitched 6 innings of 3 hit baseball allowing 1 earned run in a 3-2 loss to Atlanta where he wasn’t involved in the decision.
The Cubs get off to a slow start seemingly every year, and they’re typically overvalued on their home field. Last season, for example, Chicago lost bettors 8.1 units at home despite a solid 46-34 record at Wrigley Field. Milwaukee, conversely, was a profitable investment away from Miller Park going 40-41 for just under 7 units of profit. The series has been very competitive head to head in recent years, and particularly in Chicago where the Cubs hold a narrow 9-8 advantage. Davis and Dempster have pitched well in these matchups for betting on sports –Davis has a career 3.36 ERA against Chicago while Dempster is 3.10 against Milwaukee. Ultimately, this is a very even matchup which makes the road team the clear value position.
Bet Milwaukee (Davis) +140 over Chicago Cubs (Dempster)
