MMA Picks: WEC Urijah Faber vs. Raphael Assuncao
Added on Jan 09, 2010 by Jack Thurman in
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The WEC returns to action on Sunday night in Sacramento, California and as always Zuffa’s promotion focusing on the lighter weight classes offers a number of good MMA sports betting values. In the main event, Ben Henderson and Jamie Varner will fight to unify the WEC lightweight title. In the co-main event, the promotion’s most high profile fighter, Urijah Faber, returns to action for the first time since his 5 round war with Mike Brown last June.
WEC: Urijah Faber vs. Raphael Assuncao
January 10, Main card begins 6 PM Pacific
Partially this is a play against Urijah Faber, who is making his return to action for the first time since the second Mike Brown fight. Faber severely inured both hands during the bout and required surgery on one. This will be his first return to action since surgery. At 30, Faber is a little too young to be a ‘shot fighter’ but he’s lost 2 of his last 3 bouts with the only win coming against Jens Pulver (who is nearing the end of his career). Granted, both losses were to Brown who is one of the best in the world at the weight but ultimately it may be a case where the competition in the WEC is catching up to him. The reality is that he may just be a very good fighter instead of a great fighter, and as every fight fan knows hand injuries are very difficult to heal properly. His hands could cause him trouble for the rest of his career. Another problem with Faber is that he doesn’t have the best technical background–he’s a good wrestler and has effective if unorthodox standup but his style is more to outwork his opponent a la Clay Guida. At some point as he gets older that’s a tough style to maintain against younger fighters.
Raphael Assuncao is also no joke. He’s 14-1 with his only loss a majority decision to tough Jeff Curran. He hasn’t exactly dominated since coming to the WEC but he’s won both fights by decision. Not the highest level of competition in his career but he’s got a couple of solid wins over Bellator’s Jorge Masvidal and current UFC fighter Joe Lauzon. He’s got a background in BJJ and Muay Thai and is a pretty solid all around fighter. His ground game could be the difference in this fight as Faber likes to take opponents to the ground but doesn’t have the submission defense to counter a solid BJJ fighter. We won’t go so far as to say that Assunaco should be favored, but this is a lot closer to a ‘pick’em’ fight than the price suggests. ‘True odds’ Faber shouldn’t be more than a -200 favorite so its a good overlay.
Bet Raphael Assuncao +285 over Urijah Faber
