Baseball Betting Picks: Chicago Cubs at Houston Astros

Added on Apr 11, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

We’ll head down to Texas for our next MLB betting preview as the Chicago Cubs take on the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. These teams finished with almost identical records in 2010 though Chicago has done marginally better (4-5) than Houston (2-7) so far in 2011.

Chicago Cubs (Dempster) at Houston Astros (Figueroa)
April 11, 2011 5:05 PM Pacific

We’re looking for a much better season from the Cubbies in 2011 due in large part to their new manager Mike Quade. Quade took over for Lou Pinella late in the season and led Chicago to a 24-13 record down the stretch. That may not sound like much, but considering the Cubs’ overall record it is–the team slumped to a 75-87 record in 2010 finishing 16 games out of first place. They actually had a better record on the road (40-41) than at their Wrigley Field home (35-46). It’s not really an oversimplification to say that the Cubs didn’t do anything well in 2010—they didn’t hit well, didn’t pitch well and played shoddy defense.

Houston is off to a bad start, but nothing like last year’s miserable beginning to the season which included a franchise record losing streak. The good news is that Houston showed marked improvement after the All Star break posting a 44-30 record. That was the 4th best second half mark in the senior circuit and was responsible for interim manager Brad Mills landing the permanent job. The Astros are still rebuilding with youth, but there’s a lot of talent on the roster. Much of Houston’s poor start this year is a function of scheduling–they went 1-5 to start the year playing on the road in Philadelphia and Cincinnati.

Relative to this matchup, we have to consider the Cubs’ superior performance away from home. We’d much rather be using Chicago as a visitor and particularly in night games where Houston posted a 15-26 record at Minute Maid Park for a net loss of -11.95 units. We also like the fact that we’re getting Ryan Dempster–who was the only pitcher with any semblance of consistency for Chicago–on the hill. Dempster had a respectable 3.92 ERA in 2010 and should be able to dominate a Houston team that only averaged 2.7 runs per game under the lights at home. Cubs turned a +6.2 unit profit in night games on the road in 2010 and we’ll play this one accordingly.

Bet Chicago Cubs (Dempster) -115 over Houston Astros (Figueroa)