MLB Baseball Betting Free Picks: New York Mets at Houston Astros

Added on Aug 16, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Baseball betting season is winding down and with a short card of action for Monday we’ll focus on a matchup in the National League between a couple of teams going nowhere. The New York Mets play at Houston and both teams are all but out of playoff contention, but this game offers a decent situational play that has been profitable all season long.

New York Mets (Jon Niese) at Houston Astros (Wandy Rodriguez)
August 16, 2010—5:05 PM Pacific

Mets are 10 games out of the NL East lead, while Houston is 15 games back yet despite substandard records both teams are essentially break even on the year in terms of profit and loss. Mets are 58-59 -2.1 units on the season, while Houston is 51-65 +1.2 units. Neither team has been in particularly good form of late both having lost 6 of their last 10 games.

What interests us in this matchup is Houston’s solid performance against left handed pitching. Astros are 17-13 +8 units against southpaws this year. The Mets’ Jon Niese has decent numbers on the season, with a 3.50 ERA (3.57 on the road) but New York has lost 6 of his 9 road starts. Wandy Rodriguez has been solid all season but has been especially sharp in his last three outings—he’s allowed only two earned runs in 21.3 innings of work for a 0.84 ERA in that stretch.

Mets are decent against southpaws (17-14 +3.1 units) but we don’t have any problem going against them here for a couple of reasons. We love Rodriguez’s solid recent form and look for any opportunity we can find to play against the Mets on the road. Mets have a solid 36-22 mark at Shea Stadium but are a pitiful 22-37 -12.9 units away from home. We’re getting a ‘pick em’ price with Houston giving us the better starting pitcher in the matchup, a profitable situational matchup and putting us on the right side against a team that has lost a ton of money on the road.

Bet Houston Astros (Rodriguez) -110 over New York Mets (Niese)