MLB Betting Picks: Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates

Added on Apr 12, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Full slate of baseball betting action for Tuesday and in this preview we’ll take a look at a National League game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers. Both teams have opened the season 5-5 and are currently tied for second place in the National League Central.

Milwaukee Brewers (Marcum) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Correia)
April 12, 2011 4:05 PM Pacific

Oddly enough 4 of the Pirates 5 wins on the season have been on the road. They went 1-3 against the Colorado Rockies in their only home play to date. We don’t expect that trend to continue–as bad as Pittsburgh was in 2010 they turned a profit at home going 40-41 for +10.30 units of profit. We may not be getting the same prices on the Pirates in 2011 but there’s every expectation that this team is going to get better. Pittsburgh has a ton of young talent with four everyday starters 25 and younger who all have All Star potential. Second baseman Neil Walker, outfielder Jose Tabata, third baseman Pedro Alvarez and center fielder Andrew McCutchen have superstar potential and at very least could be solid players for years to come. They’ll be joined by free agent signees Lyle Overbay and Matt Diaz to form the core of the everyday lineup this season.

Milwaukee’s home/away tendencies in the young season could continue for much of the year–all 5 of the Brewers’ wins came at home and they’re 0-3 on the road so far in 2011. The Brewers weren’t horrible on the road last season (37-44) but they’re still a club that we’re not completely sold on. They could be a franchise that is ‘snakebit’ and despite making a big investment in free agents won’t see the returns they expect. Things haven’t gotten off to a particularly good start—Zack Greinke will miss the first few weeks of the regular season due to a fractured rib and the fact that he suffered the injury in a pickup basketball game isn’t exactly what the team wanted to hear. Greinke is a very talented pitcher but regressed in Kansas City last year—the hope is that a change of scenery to the National League and a spot on a team that could be in contention would help revive his career. He’s not off to a good start, but hopefully the basketball injury isn’t a harbinger of trouble to come.

For now, however, we’d rather back the talented young Pirates at a very good price. We’ll look for them to take at least 2 out of 3 in this series and at the prices we expect to get that’ll give us a nice profit.

Bet Pittsburgh Pirates (Correia) +108 over Milwaukee Brewers (Marcum)