MLB Betting Preview: San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals

Added on Sep 15, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

The baseball betting season is winding down, and we’ve got a nice value opportunity in a Thursday National League game between the St. Louis Cardinals and San Diego Padres. St. Louis has been unable to make up any ground on NL Central leading Cincinnati, and remains 7 games back of the Reds. Out west, the Padres have struggled in the past month but still hold a tenuous one game lead over the San Francisco Giants in the NL West.

San Diego Padres (Tim Stauffer) at St. Louis Cardinals (Jake Westbrook)
September 16, 2010–5:15 PM Pacific

Any notion that the St. Louis Cardinals would make a stretch run in the NL Central have gone by the wayside as the team has shown little or no urgency in the past month. The Cincinnati Reds are struggling of late, and by losing 7 of their last 10 games have handed the Cards a golden opportunity to make up ground. St. Louis has squandered this chance, losing 6 of their last 10–most recently struggling at home with the hapless Chicago Cubs. San Diego may have gotten back on track after a disastrous run that saw a once sizable lead in the NL West evaporate. San Diego has won 6 of their last 10 and has managed to keep surging San Francisco in the rear view mirror for now.

From a betting standpoint, the Cards have been among the worst investments in baseball this season. Pending the result of Wednesday night’s game against the Cubs (they were losing in the 7th inning as -180 favorites) St. Louis has lost a shocking -25.2 units in the 2010 season. For a team with a winning record to lose so much money, two conditions have to exist–they have to underachieve on a regular basis and they have to be overvalued by the betting public. St. Louis has dominated the Padres in head to head play in recent years and has won 7 straight at home. That really doesn’t have a lot of significance here, however, and we’ve backed San Diego all year for nice profits. On the road, the Padres are 40-31 +16.3 units and have made +20.8 units overall.

The Cards’ offense has gone missing down the stretch, and even the dependable pitchers on the staff have struggled. Things won’t get easier in this series as they face the best pitching staff in the MLB (based on team ERA) and with the Padres needing to keep pace with the Giants we look for them to do no worse than 3 of 4 in this series.

Bet San Diego Padres (Saunders) +110 over St. Louis Cardinals (Westbrook)