Free picks on Saturday NFL football: Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints

Added on Dec 19, 2009 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

One NFL game on tap for Saturday as the Dallas Cowboys try to avoid another late season swoon as they travel to New Orleans to face the Saints. The Saints are gunning for a 16-0 record and will be happy to be back home after tougher than expected tests on the road the last two weeks. New Orleans is a -7′ home favorite with the total set at 53′.

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints
Saturday, December 19th 8:20 Eastern (NFL Network)

The Indianapolis Colts managed to stay undefeated on Thursday night despite making it publicly known that an undefeated season wasn’t a big deal to them. New Orleans is a different matter and coach Sean Payton *is* very much motivated by a potential 16-0 mark. He’s also stressed the importance of clinching home field advantage throughout the playoffs by earning the best record in the NFC. That could happen today should the Saints win and Minnesota lose at Carolina.

Much of the mainstream media coverage in advance of this game has focused on Dallas’ seemingly annual struggles in December, and the Saints’ close calls on the road in their past two games. In the case of the Cowboys, that focus is warranted. For whatever the reason, the Cowboys have struggled mightily late in the season during Wade Phillips tenure as head coach. The numbers are mind boggling for a team with the Cowboys’ talent: Dallas has covered only 1 of their L10 December games, and going back even further have a pitiful 3-15-1 ATS mark in December. They’ve also failed to cover seven straight December road games, and are 3-13 in their L16 away. The offense is sputtering, and Dallas could be without their best pass rusher in Demarcus Ware (he’s listed as questionable).

While the Saints have only covered two of their last seven games four of them were on the road. In the big picture, they’ve been a solid ATS team at home with 10 covers in their last 14 opportunities. With the final games on the schedule against Carolina and Tampa Bay, this is clearly the biggest test remaining on New Orleans’ schedule. Simply stated, the Cowboys don’t have the defense to stop New Orleans, nor do they have the offense to trade points with them. The Saints have owned the head to head series of late, winning 5 of the L6 straight up and covering in all of them. This vintage of the Saints is better than in the past, while the Cowboys simply aren’t as good. The fact that Indy managed to stay undefeated serves as further motivation and they’ll win this one by double digits. No real opinion on the total, since Dallas can’t be trusted to put their share of points on the board.

Bet New Orleans -7′ over Dallas