NBA Picks: Boston Celtics @ Golden State Warriors

Added on Dec 28, 2009 by Jack Thurman in

Winning on the road in the NBA is tough, no matter how good the team. Winning and covering pointspreads is even more difficult. The Boston Celtics head to Golden State tonight and have been installed as a -6 road favorite. Boston is clearly the superior team in terms of talent, but it could be an attractive opportunity to take some online sports betting value with the home team:

Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors
December 28, 7:35 PM Pacific

Tough spot for the Celtics as they play their third in a four game road trip. It’s actually their third game in four days, having played at Orlando on Christmas Day and against the LA Clippers last night. This would have set up better had the Celtics not been upset by the Clippers, but a veteran team isn’t going to worry about a 2 point road loss. They may not get too worked up about tonight’s game against the Warriors, as they have a bigger game against Phoenix on Wednesday night.

Boston has struggled as a favorite this season, with a 10-15 ATS mark. There’s nothing wrong with this Celtics team and their poor ATS record as a chalk might actually bode well for their prospects in the NBA playoffs. They’re simply a team that does what it takes to win and moves on to the next game, without much concern about getting a margin. While this may be a sign of maturity and focus, its not a good quality for NBA betting purposes.

Golden State is most certainly not a good team, but they are a tricky matchup for Eastern Conference opponents who don’t see them very often. They’ll want to push the pace, and that’s not the Celtics preferred style of play and particularly without Paul Pierce in the lineup. The Warriors are 7-5 ATS at home, and have done remarkably well against the Eastern Conference for the reason we just mentioned: Golden State is on an 18-8-2 ATS run against the Eastern Conference, and a 16-8 ATS run against the Atlantic Divison (3-1 this year). Amazingly, the Warriors have dominated the head to head series for quite some time: they’ve lost 3 of 5 SU but covered 4 of those games. They’ve won and covered the last two at home and are currently on an 18-6 ATS streak overall and an 8-3 ATS run at home against Boston. In a tough scheduling spot with a higher profile opponent on deck, the Celtics could find themselves in a surprisingly close contest.

Play Golden State +6 over Boston