Free NBA Picks: Atlanta @ Miami

Added on Jan 05, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

We’ll try to bounce back from a loss on our Sunday NBA betting play as Dallas’s defense was shredded by the Lakers’ offense sending the total well ‘Over’. Tonight we’ll head to the other side of the country as the Atlanta Hawks travel south to take on the Miami Heat at American Airlines Arena in south Florida. These two teams played a furious seven game opening round series in last year’s NBA finals, but this season have started to head in different directions.

Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat
January 4, 4:35 PM Pacific

Heat have now lost three straight and overall have an 8-7 SU mark since December 1. They’ve played better at home over the past month with quality wins against Utah and Orlando but are just 10-9 SU, 8-11 ATS on their own floor. American Airlines Arena has never been a particularly formidable home court venue, but that’s not much of a record for a team that aspires to be among the NBA elite. Heat lost to Charlotte at home on Saturday night and while the Bobcats are a rapidly improving team who has played tough on the road despite having only three wins for the season away from home (they beat Cleveland outright on Sunday) that’s still a game Miami should have won. You could make a case that they were looking ahead to this game–one Miami sportswriter has referred to the Hawks as “our new least favorite team”–but that’s a tough sell. There’s been a lot of griping about head coach Eric Spoelstra but the bigger problem, as always, is that Dwayne Wade’s supporting cast simply isn’t dependable on game in/game out basis.

The Hawks, meanwhile, look much improved over their solid performance from last season. They’re currently in 4th place in the Eastern Conference but they’re only 4 games out of first and in the mix with Cleveland, Boston and Orlando as serious contenders. The Eastern Conference is notoriously ‘top heavy’ this season with only five teams having a winning record, but the Hawks need to improve upon their performance in conference games to close the gap with the leaders. Atlanta is just 11-8 against the Eastern Conference, compared to Cleveland and Orlando at 16-6 and Boston at 16-4.

Atlanta has been a great pointspread team this year with a 22-10 ATS mark. They’re also 11-5 ATS on the road, and have bounced back from bad games very impressively. After losing back to back games against Cleveland, Atlanta dropped a tough decision to New York but the Hawks are 6-1 ATS after a loss as a favorite. The recent form of the series has favored the home team, but with their performance on the road this year the Hawks may be ready to jump to the next level. Hawks have been off since Friday while Miami is playing their fourth game in six days. Atlanta thumped the Heat by 15 at Phillips Arena in late November, and we look for another comfortable win/cover here.

Bet Atlanta -1′ over Miami