NBA Betting Free Picks: Boston @ Miami
Added on Apr 23, 2010 by Jack Thurman in
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Sportsbooks are offering three NBA betting opportunities in first round playoff action tonight and we’ll take a look at an Eastern Conference battle between Miami and Boston. The Celtics won the first two games in Boston, and they’ll head to Miami for games three and four. Kevin Garnett returns here for Boston after serving his one game suspension.
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat
April 23, 4:05 PM Pacific
Not sold on this Miami team, and we’ll go against them yet again here. Based on the Game 2 price when Garnett was out of action, linesmakers have drastically overvalued the Heat in this matchup. Now that he’s back and the series shifts to Miami, we’re not convinced that the Heat justify a -4 point favorite price. Statistically, teams that are down 2-0 with game 3 at home are a 60% or so winning play (straight up) but this could be a case where the Celtics simply ‘have their number’ due to a bad matchup. Miami was a money loser at home this year (18-22 ATS) and as a favorite (21-22). Both teams rank among the league’s best defensively, but keep in mind that the Celtics have been ‘phoning in’ games for nearly two months now looking ahead to the postseason.
Head to head matchup has been very one-sided in favor of Boston and particularly from a straight up standpoint. Celtics are 12-1 SU/9-4 ATS over the last three years in all games against the Heat, and 5-1 SU/ATS in Miami. Keep in mind that all the Celtics need to do here is win the game, and we’ve got a decent margin of error should they play it close and lose at the end. Celtics are the value play and we like them to win outright here.
Bet Boston +4 over Miami
