NBA Betting: Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers

Added on Mar 13, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

NBA

Non-conference NBA matchup on Sunday as the Oklahoma City Thunder travel to Cleveland to play the league’s worst Cavaliers. The Thunder are currently in 4th place in the Western Conference while Cleveland is a long shot to not finish with the worst record in the league. They’ve been playing better of late, but for a team with only 12 wins on the year that’s definitely a relative concept.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers
March 13, 2011 10:05 AM Pacific

The Oklahoma City Thunder can’t be blamed for not getting too excited about a game against the Cleveland Cavaliers. This is a dangerous spot for them, however, as they face a letdown situation off a home game and with two road games after this ending up in Miami. The Cavs have lost 3 straight SU/ATS but before that had gone through a stretch where they were a very profitable pointspread play. In the 19 games prior to the 3 game skid they were 12-5-2 ATS. We think they’ll be a ‘play on’ down the stretch for several reasons that we’ve discussed before–no team can get ‘up’ for a game against the Cavs, the public hates them which means lines are shaded in their favor (and against their opponents to attract action) and with so many reserves getting serious playing time they’re in a position where they can improve their status in the league.

The Thunder are just 10-12 ATS against the Eastern Conference and haven’t been at their best in ‘run and gun’ games with a high total. In games with a 210 total or higher OKC is just 5-9 ATS on the year and 2-7 ATS on the road. Cleveland, on the other hand, has done well–again, relatively speaking–in this situation. They can be shut down by good team defense but can hang around in a ragged ‘shootout’ type of game. With a total of 210 or higher they’re 5-4 ATS on the year. Against poor defensive teams (defined as teams allowing 99+ PPG) they’re on a 5-3 ATS run and against good offensive teams (scoring 99+ PPG) they’re on a 6-4 ATS run. They’re also on a 7-4 ATS run against opponents with winning records and we expect that to continue down the stretch. Good teams still look at a game against the Cavs as a ‘night off’, the public reflexively backs the ‘name team’ and the Cavs are by definition a good value in this situation.

Bet Cleveland Cavaliers +9′ over Oklahoma City Thunder