Free NFL Picks: Indianapolis @ Buffalo

Added on Jan 01, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

Indianapolis gave up their chance for an undefeated season last week when they decided to rest their starters, and Peyton Manning and the Colts’ other top guns will likely see a short afternoon here. Buffalo should get QB Ryan Fitzpatrick back for this game, but they’re not really playing for anything either as they enter the contest at 5-10. The game was off the board earlier in the week due to the uncertain status of the Indy game plan but now its been posted with the assumption that the Colts second stringers will play most of the game. For NFL betting enthusiasts, that presents a nice value opportunity:

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills
January 3, 10:00 AM Pacific

The Colts clearly don’t have much to play for here with the playoffs looming and the fact that Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai and other top stars will see limited playing time public knowledge. Still, that fact alone doesn’t seem to justify making Buffalo a whopping -9 home favorite in this spot. Indy backup Curtis Painter is definitely a step down from Manning, but he is competent within the Colts’ offensive system. The way this game matches up, however, he may not need to do much but we’ll get to that in a moment. Ryan Fitzpatrick took most of the snaps in practice over the past couple of days and is expected to get the start here over third stringer Brian Bohm. The thinking among the wagering public is that the Bills might put in a good effort to lobby for Perry Fewell to be given the permanent coaching gig but that’s a lot to assume.

The primary fallacy in situations like this is that the team that doesn’t “need” the game for anything (in this case the Colts) will just ‘lay down’ and let their opponents run roughshod over them. That’s seldom the case, and is a lot more effective in a dynamic where the favored team is playing for something (eg: a winning record, a playoff spot). The backups who don’t usually get to play will be primed to turn in a strong effort in hopes to get more playing time. At the very least, they’ll be competing on every play. Its not like QB Painter will be smoking cigarettes on the sideline during breaks.

This game in particular presents two fundamental problems in asking Buffalo to cover a margin. First, they’ve struggled all year to put points on the board. The Bills have put more than 20 points on the scoreboard once in their last 11 games, and have scored less than 14 points in eight of their last 11. More importantly, perhaps, Buffalo is the NFL’s worst ranked defense against the run. All the Colts will need to do to keep the chains moving and put some points on the board is run on the Bills, and this strategy is something that everyone on their depth chart can implement. The Bills may get the outright victory, but Indy will be able to stay well within the hefty pointspread even with their starters watching from the sidelines.

Bet Indianapolis +9 over Buffalo