Free picks on Sunday NFL football: Cincinnati vs. San Diego

Added on Dec 19, 2009 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

As a sports handicapper, my job is to deal with objective reality. I assess the positives, weigh them against the negatives and evaluate how the net will impact the outcome of individual games. It’s not my place to pass judgement on these events, and frequently handicapping decisions are made by considering factors that are rooted in some level of human tragedy. Players get injured, suspended or simply don’t perform well and lose their jobs. On a human level, I frequently feel for those suffering this misfortune but that doesn’t change the fact that my responsibility is to evaluate them objectively. This weekend, Cincinnati will travel to San Diego on the wake of a more serious tragedy as they mourn the death of teammate Chris Henry.

Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers
Sunday, December 20th 1:05 PM Pacific

With the exception of the ongoing tabloid coverage of Tiger Woods’ myriad issues, the biggest story in the mainstream sports media this week was the tragic death of Bengals’ wide receiver Chris Henry. Henry may not have been the poster boy for character in sports, but he was a father and a teammate and clearly those close to him are devastated by his passing. The usual suspects in the sports media have weighed in on the tragedy, but that’s not my job. My job is to evaluate the impact of the situation on his team.

This was already an interesting spot to play the Bengals as +7 underdogs. Cincinnati has historically struggled in their trips to the west coast, and haven’t won there since 2003. Still, this Bengals team is a solid NFL squad with a competent offense and a stout defense. It’s tough to find anything not to like about the Chargers, who have demonstrated in recent years that they get better as the year progresses. Phillip Rivers is playing at a Pro Bowl level, and he’s been stellar in the late season since becoming San Diego’s starting QB. In fact, he’s been perfect in December with a 16-0 SU record. San Diego is also on a roll this season, having won eight straight games and taking control of the AFC West.

The Bengals considered this an important game even before the tragic events of the past week. A win here will clinch their division, and while they can’t catch Indianapolis for the best record in the conference they’ve got a solid shot at the #2 record. With their final two games against the woeful Kansas City Chiefs and the erratic New York Jets, this was the last tough test for the team before the playoffs begin. They’ve most definitely got the defense to make this a competitive game. Cincinnati has also performed well of late, and in their past eight games are averaging 29.7 PPG for and 15.3 PPG against.

Chris Henry’s death, however, could be a motivating factor for an extraordinary effort. Historically, teams perform well in the wake of similar tragedy. The longterm impact of Henry’s death upon the Bengals’ psyche remains unknown but certainly there’s no evidence that they’ll ‘phone in’ this performance against the Chargers. The Bengals have already dealt with one death in their ‘family’ this season, as defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer’s wife died unexpectedly in October. He coached the defense three days later as the Bengals defeated Baltimore and was awarded the game ball. The mood at Bengals’ practices this week has understandably been somber, but QB Carson Palmer has already demonstrated his leadership and made this a rallying point for his troops. Defensive tackle Domata Peko spoke to the media about Palmer’s speech to the team following the announcement of Henry’s death:

Carson spoke about one thing … that Chris was a great competitor. What he would want us to do is go out and win, not be sad. You’re going to go through these times and be sad, but to pull together and dedicate the rest of the season to Chris and coach Zimmer’s wife.

This may not be as easy in the longterm, but in the short term there’s every reason to expect a furious effort from the Bengals on Sunday. Emotion can carry a team only so far, but Cincinnati has the talent to back it up. Palmer is no doubt sincere in his sympathy and grieving, but from a leadership standpoint he did the smart thing as his team faces a tough game against a top notch team: he’s made the Bengals’ performance a tribute to the memory of their fallen teammate.

The Bengals will wear Henry’s #15 on their helmets for the rest of the season to honor him, and receiver Chad Ochocinco has announced that he’ll wear #15 on his jersey for Sunday’s game despite incurring a fine from the league (which the NFL Players Association has volunteered to pay). The mood of the team will be one of toughness and resolve, and it could very well be the deciding factor that carries them to victory.

Cincinnati has only lost once as an underdog this season (last week at Minnesota) and they’ve got an impressive 6-1 ATS mark when getting points this year. They were very much a ‘live dog’ in this game before Chris Henry’s passing, and the emotion and intensity they’ll bring to honor him make them an even stronger play in this spot.

Bet Cincinnati +7 over San Diego