NFL Betting Free Picks: Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets
Added on Dec 31, 2009 by Jack Thurman in
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On December 20th, New York Jets’ coach Rex Ryan admitted that his team was ‘obviously out of the playoff hunt’. He corrected himself the next day after learning of the remotely possible scenarios that could send his team to the postseason. They caught all of the breaks they needed last weekend, and when the previously unbeaten Indianapolis Colts pulled their starters and essentially conceded last weekend’s game to the Jets they received a belated Christmas gift: they now controlled their playoff destiny. They’ll face a team that has already punched their ticket to the playoffs, the Cincinnati Bengals.
Cincinnati at New York Jets
January 3 2010, 5:20 PM Eastern
The Jets need to win and they’re in, and that fact is clearly reflected in the NFL football betting line for this game. New York is a -10 favorite, meaning that as is so often the case in this situation you’ll pay a premium to back the Jets. It’s never a good situation for the value oriented sports betting enthusiast and making it even more problematic here is that so much pressure rests on the Jets’ rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez.
They’ll have to earn the victory against one of the NFL’s top defenses. Cincinnati isn’t a flashy offensive team despite the fact that wide receiver Chad Ochocinco is their best known player. They’re a team that wins with a power running game, field position and a stout defense. The big question surrounding the Bengals is how seriously they’ll take this game and, in something of a corollary to that, how many minutes their starters will play.
One thing that we don’t expect to see is for the Bengals to roll over and let the Jets run roughshod over them. Even if they do limit the starters’ minutes the style of game that we expect to see doesn’t easily facilitate a blowout. On the Jets side of things, Rex Ryan isn’t going to put Sanchez into a position he’s not ready for. Everyone knows that he’s got a 20-12 touchdown to interception ratio, so we expect to see him throwing few downfield passes. Instead, look for the Jets to rely on the run–not that it’ll be easy against a Bengals defense that entered week 15 ranked #2 in the NFL against the rush.
Oddly enough, a player from a third team has thrown some fuel onto the fire of this game. Pittsburgh Steelers’ linebacker LaMarr Woodley has publically suggested that both the Bengals and Patriots (who play the Houston Texans) will ‘lay down’ in their final games. The Steelers still have an outside chance to make the playoffs, but need both Cincinnati and New England to win their games. By making the final games a referendum on the respective manhood of the Bengals and Pats, Woodley has increased the chances of a competitive effort from both teams.
Don’t forget the late season pickup that the Bengals made of former KC Chiefs running back Larry Johnson. Johnson wants to rebuild his stock in the NFL, and will likely see extensive playing time once Cedric Benson leaves. Johnson is a perfect fit for the Bengals’ style of offense, and is much more talented than the garden variety backup. With the weekend weather forecast calling for snow showers and wind, it further diminishes chances for the Jets to put up the kind of margin they’d need to cover this pointspread.
Win or lose, we sure don’t see Marvin Lewis letting his team simply go belly up in this game. If the Bengals had more postseason success in recent years it would be a more likely scenario, but as it works out its crucial to keep his team’s intensity up. The Bengals have covered 9 of their last 10 as underdogs and whether or not they win outright we look for them to make it 10 of 11 here. They’re definitely the value position against an overvalued Jets side.
Bet Cincinnati Bengals +10 over New York Jets
