NFL Football Free Picks for Sunday: Dallas @ Washington

Added on Dec 27, 2009 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

We’ll try to follow up on our nice Christmas Day winner on San Diego with a matchup involving another team trying to lock up a playoff spot. Not that there’s not enough intensity any time that the Cowboys and the Redskins renew one of the more heated rivalries in the NFL. Throw in a national audience on NBC and this game should have plenty of action for sportsbook fans:

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
December 27, 5:20 PM Pacific

Perfect set up for a play on the underdog, as Dallas comes in off one of their best performances of the year while Washington tries to bounce back from one of their worst. Last Saturday night, the Cowboys ended the New Orleans Saints’ undefeated run in one of their best all around performances of the season. Tony Romo led his team to a 24-3 lead and the defense sealed the game in the fourth quarter to fend off the Saints’ final comeback attempt. On Monday night, the Redskins were embarrassed by the New York Giants, falling behind 24-0 at halftime en route to a 45-12 defeat.

One of the most valuable handicapping concepts that I’ve learned through the years is particularly applicable to the NFL: no team is as good as they look at their best, nor as bad as they look at their worst. Whether you want to call it ‘regression to the mean’ or a ‘bounceback’ and ‘letdown’ scenario, this matchup is a classic example of this concept. Ironically, before last week’s disparate results the Redskins had been a much better investment for NFL pointspread players in the previous month. Prior to their humiliation by the Giants, the Redskins had covered five straight games despite a 2-3 SU mark. Dallas, meanwhile, appeared to be entering one of their trademark December swoons, and had failed to cover in four of their last five games (2-3 SU).

Dallas and Washington played earlier this season at Cowboys Stadium, with the Redskins giving their hosts all they could handle in a 7-6 loss. The Redskins have covered four of the last five in the series, and given the heated nature of this rivalry would love nothing more than to put a kink in the Cowboys’ playoff plans. Dallas needs a win here and for Carolina to defeat the Giants to clinch a playoff berth this week.

Dallas was a -10′ favorite earlier this year at home and now they’re a -7 favorite in this spot. The line is somewhat inflated due to the Cowboys’ ‘needing’ this game for a playoff berth, as well as the public perception of the teams based on their last two performances. Only one of the last five games in the series has been decided by more than a touchdown (and that was a Redskins victory). Its very doubtful that the Redskins will ‘quit’ in this game if for no other reason than individual self preservation. There was a big front office shakeup before the Giants game with Bruce Allen being named the team’s new GM. It may be too late for head coach Jim Zorn, but for the rest of the players and coaching staff they’re auditioning for their jobs. Look for a solid effort from the underdog in their final home game of the year against their hated rivals.

Bet Washington +7 over Dallas