NFL Free Picks: Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks

Added on Dec 31, 2009 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

After a horrible start to the season that saw the team lose their first six games (going 1-5 ATS), the Tennessee Titans turned their season around when they handed the reins back to QB Vince Young. Though they fell short of the playoffs, they’ve got a good shot at finishing 8-8 which is an impressive accomplishment considering the hole they dug for themselves. Seattle has no real storyline ‘arc’, and they’ve been a disappointment this year to both their fans and NFL football betting enthusiasts, entering this game at 5-10 both SU and against the spread.

Tennessee at Seattle
January 3 2010, 1:15 PM Pacific

The Titans won’t make the playoffs, but they’ve got a couple of things to play for here. First, they can finish .500 with a victory. In addition, the Titans’ star running back Chris Johnson has an outside shot to break Erik Dickerson’s single season rushing record of 2,105 yards. He needs 234 yards to get it, but his teammates will do everything to give him the opportunity to make a run at it. These may seem like minor goals in the big picture of the NFL, but the impressive thing is that this Tennessee team still has a purpose to play for which seemed unlikely when they were staring at a 0-6 record.

Seattle’s defense is sufficiently weak enough that they might get Johnson the record. The Seahawks stop unit ranks 25th in the NFL in total defense and 14th in rushing defense. An even bigger problem, quite frankly, is that Seattle has the look of a team that doesn’t really care any more. Not that they’ve shown a lot of heart at any point in the year. Four of their five wins came at home, including wins over bottom feeders St. Louis and Detroit. Their only road win came at St. Louis. As far as their performance against superior teams here’s all you need to know: as an underdog this year the Seahawks are 0-8 both straight up and against the spread. Not that this is anything new, since their 3 year record as an underdog is 3-22 straight up, 6-18-1 against the spread.

If you needed any further evidence that the Seahawks had called it quits for the year, take a look at their last three games where they’re 0-3 SU/ATS and have been outscored by a combined margin of 106-24. They’ve scored one offensive touchdown during this streak and in their last home game lost outright to Tampa Bay 24-7 as a -6 favorite. At the time, it was the Bucs only away win of the season.

An important component of successful bettor at an online sportsbook –and particularly the NFL where there is relative parity in terms of talent from team to team–is finding spots where one team is motivated to perform well, or unmotivated or lacking the focus to do so. In this situation we’ve got a matchup between a team motivated to perform well against a team that has already called it a season. Chris Johnson may not get the rushing record, but with his team doing everything within their power to help him that’s enough to win and cover a small price in this game.

Bet Tennessee -4 over Seattle