NBA betting picks: Miami @ LA Clippers

Added on Jan 10, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

As we discussed yesterday, a NBA betting concept that we’ll use repeatedly this season is based on the clear superiority top to bottom of the Western Conference over the Eastern Conference. This isn’t something we’re making a normative judgment about; its based on concrete performance data. We’ll look to play Western Conference teams in matchups against Eastern Conference teams with comparable records every chance we get.

Miami Heat at Los Angeles Clippers
January 10, 12:35 PM Pacific

This matchup is a perfect example of the above concept for any sportsbook. Miami enters this game with a SU record of 18-16, while the Clippers are 16-18 SU. Despite the fact that’s a difference of only two games, note where each team ranks in their conference. Miami is in 5th place in the East–one of only 6 teams in the conference with a winning record. The Clippers are in 12th place in the Western Conference. If the two teams traded places, the Clippers’ record would be good enough for 8th place and a playoff berth in the East, while Miami would be tied with New Orleans for 10th place in the West.

The Clippers simply aren’t as bad as they used to be. Chris Kaman is one of the more underrated players in the NBA, and is averaging 20.4 PPG and 9.3 rebounds per game. Marcus Canby and Eric Gordon have upgraded their defense, and Baron Davis is still a solid point guard. The schedule helps us out here as well–we’d be hesitant to play on the Clippers after their huge upset win over the Lakers, but they’ve been off for four days which is enough time to ‘come down’ from the big win. Miami, conversely, is in the middle of a difficult Western Conference road swing and this is something of a ‘sandwich game’ as the Heat have just played Phoenix and have Utah on deck Monday. Clippers are easy to overlook in this spot, but we think they’ll get the job done at home.

Bet LA Clippers -1′ over Miami