NBA Preview: New York Knicks at Miami Heat

Added on Feb 27, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

NBA

With the addition of Carmelo Anthony to the New York Knicks starting lineup this game has taken on even more interest–’melo, Amare Stoudemire and the Knicks head to South Florida to take on LeBron, D-Wade, Bosh and the Miami Heat. The Heat are tied with the Boston Celtics for the best record in the Eastern Conference while New York is in 6th place.

New York Knicks at Miami Heat
February 27, 2011 5:05 PM Pacific

This was already a game that the Miami Heat had likely ‘circled’ even before the trade that brought petulant scoring machine Carmelo Anthony from Denver to New York. The Knicks beat Miami at MSG on January 27th and we look for some ‘payback’ here. The Heat aren’t particularly good either SU or ATS in ‘revenge spots’ going 10-9 SU/8-10 ATS but for some reason–likely the mainstream media’s fawning fascination with New York City–the Knicks’ win got an inordinate amount of attention. Some called it ‘the biggest win of the decade’ for the home team–that may actually be true, but due only to the struggles of the franchise in the past 10 years. Never mind that it was the third meeting of the year against the Heat, with Miami winning and covering the first two. This is a big game for Miami and could have been responsible for a mediocre effort against the Washington Wizards the last time out.

There’s a lot of reasons to like the Knicks in this spot, not the least of which is their excellent pointspread record on the road this season–New York is 19-8 ATS away from Madison Square Garden and 19-7 ATS as an underdog. Even before the ‘revival’ of the Knicks this season with the arrival of Amare Stoudemire via free agency this has been a good pointspread category for them–they’re 13-5 ATS as road dogs of +9′ to +12 points since 2008. Keep in mind, however, that the dynamic of this New York Knicks team has changed over the past week–they’re no longer a team that can ‘sneak up’ on opponents that take them lightly due to their years of struggle. They’re now a huge ‘public’ team and a media darling with two of the biggest stars in the NBA. We’re not convinced, however, that they’re not due for some ‘growing pains’ as Stoudemire and Anthony get used to playing together. Both are players that like to have the ball in their hands and be the ‘go to guy’. Chauncey Billups is obviously used to playing with Anthony, but he’s now got to work to get both his longtime teammate and Stoudemire the ‘touches’ they want while trying to run a cohesive offense.

New York’s ownership has plenty of money and they’ll be working overtime to surround ‘melo and Amare with talent in the offseason–right now, however, once you get past the two superstars and the capable Billups there’s not much to work with. Stoudemire is backed up by a capable veteran in former University of South Carolina standout Renaldo Balkman but most of the names on the Knicks’ depth chart would elicit a reaction of ‘Who?’ from even a serious NBA fan. Assuming Stoudemire and Anthony can play together effectively there’s a ton of future potential for the Knicks but at this point the hype and hope have gotten ahead of the on-court product.

The Knicks are still once of the worst defensive teams in the league (#28 in scoring defense) and that’s going to be a serious problem here because the Heat are a very good defensive team. Miami is ranked #6, but that’s somewhat misleading since they have so many games where they can just show up and outscore their opponents. When they have to commit to defense they’re downright nasty. After a slow start the Heat have done an excellent job staying focused and taking care of business on a night after night basis despite every team in the league ‘circling’ them on the schedule. They’re 13-3 SU in their last 16 games and while they haven’t been a great ATS team that’s due to their status as such a huge ‘public’ team. In this matchup, however, they may be somewhat undervalued due to New York’s recent moves. Miami wins and covers in a ‘statement’ game.

Bet Miami Heat -9′ over New York Knicks