NFL Betting Picks: Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins

Added on Dec 23, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

Sunday NFL betting features a matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Detroit Lions at Sun Life Stadium in Florida. The Dolphins are 7-7 on the year and all but eliminated from the playoff hunt. Detroit is nowhere near a playoff berth at 4-10 but the scrappy play of the team has at least generated some optimism in the Motor City for the first time since Barry Sanders retired.

Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins
December 26, 2010 10:00 AM Pacific

The Lions’ 4-10 record may not look like much, but for a team that won a *total* of two games in the previous two seasons that’s a huge improvement. Detroit has also been the best pointspread team in the NFL all season and enters this game with a 10-3 ATS record overall. They’re also 8-3 ATS as an underdog and 4-2 ATS on the road. They’re also on a two game winning streak which, again, is monumental for a team coming off of a 2-14 season in 2009 and an 0-16 season in 2008. Making the Lions’ performance all the more amazing is the fact that they’re down to their third string QB, Drew Stanton. Even before that, they’ve been without starter Matthew Stafford for much of the season and relying on veteran Shaun Hill.

Miami is out of the playoff hunt, and that doesn’t bode well for a team already prone to underachieving and particularly at home. The Dolphins performance at home has been substandard for a number of years now but this year could be a historic example of ineptitude. As NFL writer Michael David Smith noted in the Wall Street Journal earlier this week:

This week’s NFL schedule allows Miami Dolphins players to spend Christmas at home with their families. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, the next day they have a game at Miami’s Sun Life Stadium—where they have the greatest home-field disadvantage in NFL history.

The Dolphins’ 1-6 home record is the worst in the league this season, while their 6-1 road mark is tied for the best. That combination is an unprecedented accomplishment that Miami season-ticket holders would have preferred not to witness: Never has an NFL team won five more games on the road than it won at home.

Sports betting enthusiasts know that as bad as the Dolphins have been SU at home they’re even worse against the spread. No matter how you slice it, betting the Dolphins at home is like throwing money in the street. Miami is 2-5 ATS at home this year and 7-17 ATS since 2008. They’re 6-12 ATS since 2008 as a favorite. They’re currently on a horrendous 6-28 ATS run as a home favorite and a 7-20 ATS run as a favorite of between -3′ and -10 points.

It’s also a bad tactical matchup for Miami–Detroit’s biggest liability is their defensive secondary, but the Dolphins don’t have the downfield passing game to exploit it. The Lions’ biggest strength, meanwhile, is arguably their defensive front and they should have a huge day against a one dimensional Miami attack. Most importantly, however, is the fact that Detroit is playing with enthusiasm and Miami isn’t. In a league known for parity, that’s often enough.

Bet Detroit Lions +3′ over Miami Dolphins